MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 24, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
Tobias Myers
Bailey Falter
60.9%
39.1%
-139
+128
-136
+127
-1½+115
+1½-135
-1½+118
+1½-135
4.88
3.73
8.61
o8½+105
u8½-125
o8½+105
u8+100
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
Justin Steele
Undecided Undecided
42.1%
57.9%

+350
-500

+1½-120
-1½+100
4.14
4.98
9.12

o7½-110
u7½-110
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Ryan Pepiot
Tarik Skubal
59.8%
40.2%
+156
-170
+162
-174
+1½-145
-1½+125
+1½-145
-1½+131
4.70
3.68
8.38
o7+105
u7-125
o7+100
u7-120
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
Jakob Junis
Tanner Bibee
50.7%
49.3%
+139
-152
+150
-160
+1½-155
-1½+135
+1½-153
-1½+135
4.80
4.72
9.52
o7½-115
u7½-105
o7½-115
u7½-105
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Cole Ragans
Mitchell Parker
44.4%
55.6%
-165
+151
-158
+151
-1½+100
+1½-120
-1½+100
+1½-118
4.62
5.21
9.83
o8-110
u8-110
o8-105
u8-105
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
New York Yankees (69-52)
Dean Kremer
Clarke Schmidt
34.1%
65.9%
+139
-152
+142
-152
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+130
4.34
5.99
10.33
o8½-110
u8½-110
o8½-110
u8½-110
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Brayan Bello
Bowden Francis
45.4%
54.6%
+115
-125
+117
-124
+1½-185
-1½+165
+1½-150
-1½+162
4.89
5.37
10.26
o7½-125
u7½+105
o7½-120
u7½+105
Volatility Bet Value Active
New York Mets (60-60)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Luis Severino
Spencer Schwellenbach
44.1%
55.9%
+131
-143
+127
-135
+1½-168
-1½+148
+1½-165
-1½+160
4.09
4.71
8.80
o8-115
u8-105
o8-115
u8-105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
Jack Kochanowicz
Jonathan Cannon
41.9%
58.1%
-120
+110
-116
+107
-1½+135
+1½-155
-1½+137
+1½-155
4.58
5.44
10.02
o8-115
u8-105
o8-115
u8+100
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Ryan Weathers
Bailey Ober
44.8%
55.2%
+210
-235
+213
-230
+1½-104
-1½-116
+1½-105
-1½-110
4.63
5.18
9.81
o8-110
u8-110
o8-110
u8-105
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Undecided Undecided
Framber Valdez
38.3%
61.7%




3.88
5.10
8.98


St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Michael McGreevy
Ryan Feltner
48.8%
51.2%
-123
+113
-120
+111
-1½+115
+1½-135
-1½+125
+1½-135
4.88
5.02
9.90
o11+100
u11-120
o11+100
u11-115
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Logan Webb
Brandon Pfaadt
58.9%
41.1%
+121
-132
+123
-131
+1½-180
-1½+160
+1½-178
-1½+160
4.62
3.68
8.30
o8-120
u8+100
o8-115
u8+100
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Nathan Eovaldi
Mitch Spence
35.8%
64.2%
-115
+105
-114
+106
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-160
4.53
6.02
10.55
o8+100
u8-120
o7½-115
u7½-105
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Mike King
Landon Knack
38.8%
61.2%
-102
-108
+101
-110
+1½-210
-1½+180
+1½-203
-1½+180
3.86
5.03
8.89
o8½+100
u8½-120
o8½+100
u8+100
Games for Sep 23, 2024
Games for Sep 25, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Houston Astros (70-50)
38.2%
61.8%
+113
-123
+116
-122
+1½-180
-1½+160
+1½-180
-1½+165
8.95
o7½-110
u7½-110
o7½-115
u7½+100
8th
TOP
2
0
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
60.5%
39.5%
+169
-185
+175
-180
+1½-122
-1½+102
+1½-120
-1½+105
8.10
o9-106
u9-114
o9+110
u9-120
3rd
TOP
0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
47.6%
52.4%
-106
-104
-107
+102

+1½-200
-1½+180
8
2
-0.68852-0.67178-0.74282
Pittsburgh Pirates
Arizona Diamondbacks
44.3%
55.7%
+103
-113
+102
-110
+1½-205
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+180
6
5
-0.73091-0.72177-0.81389
Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles Angels
50.5%
49.5%
+126
-137
+126
-134
+1½-160
-1½+140
+1½-162
-1½+145
6
8
-0.56840-0.57251-0.70395
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
38.1%
61.9%
+162
-177
+163
-175
+1½-135
-1½+115
+1½-135
-1½+118
4
5
-0.46833-0.46844-0.47931
Washington Nationals
St. Louis Cardinals
45.7%
54.3%
+128
-139
+133
-140
+1½-165
-1½+150
+1½-155
-1½+154
3
4
-0.56198-0.55144-0.61074
Chicago Cubs
Kansas City Royals
48.4%
51.6%
+157
-171
+170
-177
+1½-125
-1½+107
+1½-125
-1½+115
7
3
-0.96380-1.00256-0.72639
Los Angeles Dodgers
Houston Astros
50.6%
49.4%
+120
-130
+123
-130
+1½-172
-1½+152
+1½-170
-1½+155
6
2
-0.80802-0.81556-0.68142
Seattle Mariners
Chicago White Sox
39.8%
60.2%
-123
+113
-125
+119

-1½+138
+1½-155
6
3
-0.61582-0.59989-0.92173
Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers
38.6%
61.4%
+183
-202
+184
-200
+1½-110
-1½-106
+1½-114
-1½+100
2
6
-0.42416-0.42407-0.48809
Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers
51.3%
48.7%
-138
+127
-138
+132
-1½+117
+1½-135
-1½+120
+1½-135
5
0
-0.56518-0.55582-0.66656
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
40.1%
59.9%
-102
-108
-102
-107
+1½-208
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+186
9
2
-0.70719-0.70492-0.91462
Texas Rangers
Toronto Blue Jays
34.8%
65.2%
-129
+119
-130
+125
-1½+125
+1½-145
-1½+122
+1½-140
3
7
-0.80365-0.82055-0.42822
San Diego Padres
Baltimore Orioles
61.3%
38.7%
+118
-128
+120
-127
+1½-165
-1½+148
+1½-165
-1½+156
6
8
-0.59724-0.59470-0.95016
Cleveland Indians
Philadelphia Phillies
43.0%
57.0%
+111
-121
+110
-117
+1½-175
-1½+160
+1½-180
-1½+165
4
3
-0.76791-0.75717-0.84367
Cincinnati Reds
Tampa Bay Rays
42.7%
57.3%
-110
+100
-110
+106
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-165
1
2
-0.71668-0.73191-0.55692
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
38.1%
61.9%
+174
-190
+187
-197
+1½-125
-1½+110
+1½-120
-1½+105
0
5
-0.44279-0.42219-0.47931
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1 (0.500)0-0.58738 
Sportsbooks21-1 (0.500)0-0.58387 
DRatings21-1 (0.500)0-0.60420
-0.01682
-0.02033

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.