MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 24, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
Tobias Myers
Bailey Falter
60.9%
39.1%
-139
+128
-137
+131
-1½+115
+1½-129
-1½+115
+1½-125
4.76
3.62
8.38
o7½-115
u8-106
o8+100
u8-115
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
Justin Steele
Tanner Banks
42.1%
57.9%
-107
-103
-105
+100
-1½+153
+1½-170
-1½+160
+1½-170
4.14
4.98
9.12
o8-109
u8-110
o8-110
u8½-120
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
Carson Spiers
Tanner Bibee
50.7%
49.3%
+162
-177
+163
-175
+1½-132
-1½+120
+1½-125
-1½+112
4.80
4.72
9.52
o8½+100
u8+100
o8½+100
u8½-120
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Cole Ragans
Mitchell Parker
44.4%
55.6%
-168
+154
-168
+157
-1½+100
+1½-115
-1½-103
+1½-115
4.62
5.21
9.83
o7-112
u7+100
o7-115
u7½-120
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
New York Yankees (69-52)
Dean Kremer
Clarke Schmidt
34.1%
65.9%
+143
-156
+144
-152
+1½-145
-1½+130
+1½-143
-1½+130
4.49
6.14
10.63
o8½-105
u8+103
o8½-110
u8½-110
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Brayan Bello
Kevin Gausman
45.4%
54.6%
+112
-122
+112
-119
+1½-192
-1½+167
+1½-195
-1½+175
4.65
5.14
9.79
o8+100
u7½+102
o7½-120
u7½+100
New York Mets (60-60)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Luis Severino
Spencer Schwellenbach
44.1%
55.9%
+125
-135
+125
-135
+1½-170
-1½+152
+1½-165
-1½+155
4.09
4.70
8.79
o7½-108
u7½-105
o7½-110
u7½-105
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
Jack Kochanowicz
Jonathan Cannon
41.9%
58.1%
-103
-107
-105
-101
-1½+155
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-165
4.62
5.47
10.09
o8½-105
u8½-111
o8-120
u8½-110
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Ryan Weathers
Bailey Ober
44.8%
55.2%
+210
-235
+215
-235
+1½-109
-1½-110
+1½-105
-1½-110
4.63
5.18
9.81
o8+100
u8-110
o8+100
u8-115
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Logan Gilbert
Framber Valdez
38.3%
61.7%
+120
-130
+122
-130
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-180
-1½+168
3.88
5.10
8.98
o7-102
u7-110
o7+100
u7-115
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Michael McGreevy
Ryan Feltner
48.8%
51.2%
-109
-101
-107
-102
-1½+132
+1½-150
-1½+140
+1½-155
4.88
5.01
9.89
o10½-101
u10½-115
o10½+105
u10½-115
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Logan Webb
Brandon Pfaadt
58.9%
41.1%
+132
-144
+133
-142
+1½-161
-1½+141
+1½-159
-1½+140
4.62
3.68
8.30
o8-120
u8+105
o8-115
u8½-120
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Nathan Eovaldi
Mitch Spence
35.8%
64.2%
-109
-101
-108
+100
-1½+150
+1½-168
-1½+150
+1½-165
4.51
5.99
10.50
o7½-113
u8-120
o7½-115
u7½-105
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Mike King
Landon Knack
38.8%
61.2%
+104
-114
+104
-111
+1½-200
-1½+175
+1½-205
-1½+181
3.88
5.06
8.94
o8½-103
u8½-115
o8½+100
u8+100
Games for Sep 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Atlanta Braves
San Diego Padres
45.1%
54.9%
-159
+146
-158
+152
-1½+106
+1½-120
-1½+105
+1½-123
6
3
-0.50811-0.49956-0.79627
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
44.6%
55.4%
-158
+145
-154
+148
-1½+100
+1½-115
-1½+102
+1½-115
2
3
-0.91644-0.91774-0.59046
Minnesota Twins
San Francisco Giants
39.0%
61.0%
+141
-154
+145
-150
+1½-157
-1½+145
+1½-155
-1½+145
2
3
-0.52140-0.51896-0.49407
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
44.8%
55.2%
+110
-120
+112
-118
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-180
-1½+165
8
3
-0.76336-0.76430-0.80238
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago White Sox
31.9%
68.1%
-150
+138
-148
+142
-1½-102
+1½-115
-1½+105
+1½-120
9
4
-0.53079-0.52616-1.14147
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros
32.9%
67.1%
+108
-118
+112
-119
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+170
4
2
-0.75417-0.76638-1.11194
Washington Nationals
Milwaukee Brewers
39.6%
60.4%
+135
-147
+137
-145
+1½-158
-1½+140
+1½-155
-1½+140
3
9
-0.53941-0.53820-0.50456
Los Angeles Dodgers
Detroit Tigers
63.3%
36.7%
-132
+121
-130
+125
-1½+115
+1½-135
-1½+118
+1½-130
3
4
-0.81423-0.82055-1.00310
Cleveland Indians
Tampa Bay Rays
39.0%
61.0%
+114
-124
+117
-125
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-188
-1½+170
0
2
-0.61201-0.60404-0.49377
Miami Marlins
Cincinnati Reds
36.2%
63.8%
+165
-180
+170
-175
+1½-125
-1½+105
+1½-123
-1½+110
3
2
-0.99458-0.99997-1.01733
Colorado Rockies
New York Mets
45.8%
54.2%
+172
-188
+176
-190
+1½-122
-1½+105
+1½-115
-1½+107
8
5
-1.02085-1.03257-0.78154
Oakland Athletics
Philadelphia Phillies
49.2%
50.8%
+208
-233
+213
-235
+1½+106
-1½-125
+1½+114
-1½-130
18
3
-1.14901-1.16181-0.70934
Kansas City Royals
Boston Red Sox
40.6%
59.4%
+125
-136
+130
-138
+1½-167
-1½+150
+1½-165
-1½+146
4
5
-0.57167-0.55953-0.52150
New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles
62.2%
37.8%
-115
+105
-110
+110
-1½+142
+1½-162

5
6
-0.74028-0.74194-0.97196
Toronto Blue Jays
Arizona Diamondbacks
59.8%
40.2%
+121
-132
+125
-128
+1½-178
-1½+158
+1½-175
-1½+165
1
12
-0.58515-0.58315-0.91028
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
44.6%
55.4%
-144
+133
-140
+133
-1½+120
+1½-135
-1½+118
+1½-130
1
2
-0.86503-0.85830-0.59046
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks52-3 (0.400)0-0.68475 
Sportsbooks52-3 (0.400)0-0.68333 
DRatings52-3 (0.400)0-0.71742
-0.03267
-0.03409

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.