MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 24, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Michael McGreevy
Ryan Feltner
48.8%
51.2%
-114
+104
-112
+106
-1½+125
+1½-145
-1½+136
+1½-145
4.88
5.01
9.89
o10½+107
u10-105
o10½+100
u10½-115
All Bet Values Active
PostponedLos Angeles Angels (61-61)
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
Jack Kochanowicz
Jonathan Cannon
41.9%
58.1%
-105
-105
-105
-101
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-165
4.62
5.47
10.09
o8½-110
u8½-108
o8-120
u8½-110
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Logan Webb
Brandon Pfaadt
58.9%
41.1%
+140
-153
+140
-150
+1½-160
-1½+140
+1½-159
-1½+140
4.62
3.68
8.30
o8-120
u8+105
o8½+100
u8½-110
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Nathan Eovaldi
Mitch Spence
35.8%
64.2%
-109
-101
-108
+100
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-165
4.51
5.99
10.50
o7½-116
u8-115
o7½-115
u7½-105
Overall Bet Value Active
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Mike King
Landon Knack
38.8%
61.2%
+102
-112
+106
-112
+1½-208
-1½+178
+1½-200
-1½+181
3.88
5.06
8.94
o8½-101
u8½-115
o8-120
u8+100
Games for Sep 23, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
60.9%
39.1%
-145
+133
-144
+134
-1½+120
+1½-129
-1½+112
+1½-130
8.38
o8+105
u7½-102
o8+100
u7½+100
7th
TOP
4
2
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
42.1%
57.9%
-101
-109
+102
-107

-1½+170
+1½-190
9.12
o8-105
u8-115
o8+100
u8-110
6th
TOP
10
2
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
50.7%
49.3%
+174
-190
+176
-184
+1½-127
-1½+115
+1½-123
-1½+105
9.52
o8-115
u8½-108
o8½+100
u8½-110
7th
BOT
1
4
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
New York Yankees (69-52)
34.1%
65.9%
+147
-160
+152
-160
+1½-138
-1½+125
+1½-140
-1½+130
10.63
o8-120
u8+102
o8-110
u8½-110
5th
TOP
2
1
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
45.4%
54.6%
+115
-125
+116
-122
+1½-192
-1½+167
+1½-185
-1½+175
9.79
o7½-115
u8-120
o7½-120
u7½+100
5th
TOP
0
2
New York Mets (60-60)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
44.1%
55.9%
+130
-142
+132
-138
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+150
8.79
o7½-118
u7½+100
o7½-110
u7½+100
4th
BOT
0
3
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Washington Nationals (52-68)
44.4%
55.6%
-190
+174
-185
+180
-1½-118
+1½+100
-1½-115
+1½+100
9.83
o7-110
u7-108
o7-115
u7-105
4th
BOT
0
0
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
44.8%
55.2%
+220
-248
+216
-240
+1½+102
-1½-120
+1½-105
-1½-110
9.81
o8-107
u8-110
o8-105
u8-110
3rd
BOT
4
0
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Houston Astros (70-50)
38.3%
61.7%
+119
-129
+125
-126
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-185
-1½+173
8.98
o7-110
u7-105
o7-105
u7-110
2nd
TOP
0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Atlanta Braves
San Diego Padres
45.1%
54.9%
+102
-112
+102
-107
+1½-210
-1½+185
+1½-200
-1½+184
6
1
-0.72619-0.71498-0.79627
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
44.6%
55.4%
-136
+125
-132
+126
-1½+117
+1½-135
-1½+125
+1½-135
5
6
-0.83144-0.82675-0.59046
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
47.5%
52.5%
+176
-193
+177
-190
+1½-118
-1½+100
+1½-115
-1½+105
5
1
-1.03603-1.03491-0.74457
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago White Sox
36.5%
63.5%
+147
-160
+152
-162
+1½-150
-1½+134
+1½-154
-1½+140
4
1
-0.92425-0.93928-1.00895
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros
34.5%
65.5%
+129
-140
+131
-138
+1½-160
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+146
3
6
-0.55881-0.55767-0.42369
Washington Nationals
Milwaukee Brewers
43.8%
56.2%
+235
-265
+233
-260
+1½+120
-1½-136
+1½+117
-1½-130
5
2
-1.23320-1.22523-0.82538
Kansas City Royals
Boston Red Sox
38.3%
61.7%
-109
-101
-110
+101
-1½+141
+1½-161
-1½+150
+1½-160
6
1
-0.67472-0.66771-0.95988
Miami Marlins
Cincinnati Reds
42.0%
58.0%
+149
-163
+152
-154
+1½-135
-1½+118
+1½-130
-1½+122
4
7
-0.49956-0.50350-0.54409
Colorado Rockies
New York Mets
41.9%
58.1%
+242
-275
+240
-270
+1½+125
-1½-141
+1½+125
-1½-140
6
7
-0.33557-0.33865-0.54266
New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles
66.6%
33.4%
-126
+116
-122
+116
-1½+130
+1½-150
-1½+131
+1½-150
4
1
-0.60453-0.61109-0.40632
Cleveland Indians
Tampa Bay Rays
39.0%
61.0%
+125
-136
+130
-133
+1½-175
-1½+155
+1½-170
-1½+155
0
2
-0.57167-0.56627-0.49377
Oakland Athletics
Philadelphia Phillies
49.2%
50.8%
+220
-228
+225
-240
+1½+115
-1½-130
+1½+115
-1½-128
6
2
-1.17073-1.19214-0.70934
Los Angeles Dodgers
Detroit Tigers
64.7%
35.3%
+137
-149
+135
-138
+1½-157
-1½+145
+1½-160
-1½+145
4
3
-0.88303-0.85977-0.43465
Atlanta Braves
Arizona Diamondbacks
66.2%
33.8%
-112
+102
-106
+101
-1½+140
+1½-160
-1½+155
+1½-170
0
1
-0.72619-0.71013-1.08489
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
46.2%
53.8%
-160
+147
-152
+149
-1½-105
+1½-114
-1½+102
+1½-110
11
0
-0.50556-0.51033-0.77265
Miami Marlins
Houston Astros
36.9%
63.1%
+165
-180
+164
-165
+1½-127
-1½+110
+1½-125
-1½+120
3
6
-0.46185-0.47522-0.45986
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1 (0.500)0-0.73602 
Sportsbooks21-1 (0.500)0-0.73318 
DRatings21-1 (0.500)0-0.70764
0.02838
0.02555

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.