MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 25, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Houston Astros (70-50)
George Kirby
Yusei Kikuchi
39.5%
60.5%
-121
+111
-128
+120
-1½+140
+1½-150
-1½+132
+1½-150
4.02
5.12
9.14
o7-108
u7-110
o7-105
u7-115
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
Javier Assad
Cristopher Sanchez
42.1%
57.9%
+160
-175
+170
-180
+1½-135
-1½+117
+1½-130
-1½+120
4.14
4.98
9.12
o8-105
u8-110
o8+100
u8-110
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
Freddy Peralta
Luis Ortiz
56.8%
43.2%
-139
+128
-144
+134
-1½+120
+1½-133
-1½+112
+1½-125
4.95
4.25
9.20
o7½-115
u7½+100
o7½-115
u7½-105
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Zack Littell
Keider Montero
58.4%
41.6%
+103
-113
+108
-115
+1½-210
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+185
4.63
3.75
8.38
o7½-110
u7½-108
o7½-110
u7½-105
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
Jakob Junis
Joey Cantillo
50.7%
49.3%
+125
-136
+130
-138
+1½-168
-1½+150
+1½-155
-1½+152
4.42
4.35
8.77
o8+100
u8-120
o8+100
u8½-120
Volatility Bet Value Active
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Michael Lorenzen
DJ Herz
44.4%
55.6%
-115
+105
-115
+105
-1½+140
+1½-160
-1½+145
+1½-162
4.62
5.21
9.83
o8-105
u7½+103
o7½-115
u7½+100
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
New York Yankees (69-52)
Zach Eflin
Nestor Cortes
32.4%
67.6%
+136
-148
+135
-144
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+147
4.05
5.87
9.92
o7½-120
u7½+100
o7½-115
u8-115
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Richard Fitts
Kevin Gausman
42.6%
57.4%
+124
-135
+130
-131
+1½-176
-1½+156
+1½-167
-1½+150
4.51
5.28
9.79
o8-113
u8-105
o8-110
u8-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
New York Mets (60-60)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
David Peterson
Chris Sale
44.1%
55.9%
+160
-175
+163
-173
+1½-140
-1½+123
+1½-140
-1½+122
4.15
4.77
8.92
o7½-105
u7½-115
o7½+100
u7½-115
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
Jose Suarez
Davis Martin
37.1%
62.9%
-113
+103
-110
+107
-1½+145
+1½-157
-1½+148
+1½-145
4.62
5.98
10.60
o8-115
u8½-120
o8-110
u8½-120
Volatility Bet Value Active
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Edward Cabrera
Simeon Woods-Richardson
44.8%
55.2%
+169
-185
+170
-175
+1½-127
-1½+110
+1½-128
-1½+110
4.63
5.18
9.81
o8-115
u8+105
o8-115
u8-105
Volatility Bet Value Active
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Erick Fedde
Austin Gomber
48.7%
51.3%
-118
+108
-120
+115
-1½+120
+1½-138
-1½+127
+1½-145
4.89
5.03
9.92
o10½-105
u10½-115
o10-115
u10+100
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Mason Black
Zac Gallen
55.5%
44.5%
+191
-212
+198
-210
+1½-114
-1½-105
+1½-108
-1½-105
4.00
3.43
7.43
o8½-105
u8½-110
o8½-105
u8½+100
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Cody Bradford
Brady Basso
35.8%
64.2%
-113
+103
-110
+103
-1½+150
+1½-168
-1½+150
+1½-160
4.53
6.02
10.55
o7½+105
u7½-115
o7½+105
u7½-105
Volatility Bet Value Active
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Dylan Cease
Jack Flaherty
36.0%
64.0%
+117
-127
+125
-130
+1½-178
-1½+160
+1½-175
-1½+160
3.48
4.94
8.42
o7½-115
u7½-105
o7½-115
u7½-105
Games for Sep 24, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Chicago White Sox
Miami Marlins
55.3%
44.7%
-147
+135
-148
+138
-1½+112
+1½-130
-1½+118
+1½-135
3
4
-0.87488-0.88390-0.80486
San Francisco Giants
Cleveland Indians
54.9%
45.1%
+115
-125
+118
-125
+1½-175
-1½+155
+1½-170
-1½+157
4
5
-0.60825-0.60195-0.79540
Toronto Blue Jays
Seattle Mariners
54.2%
45.8%
-107
-103
-102
-105

+1½-200
-1½+188
5
4
-0.68389-0.70029-0.61195
Baltimore Orioles
Oakland Athletics
34.3%
65.7%
-156
+143
-145
+142
-1½+100
+1½-116
-1½+110
+1½-115
8
19
-0.90857-0.88882-0.41960
Tampa Bay Rays
Texas Rangers
58.1%
41.9%
-105
-105
+100
-107

-1½+160
+1½-175
3
4
-0.69315-0.67666-0.86979
St. Louis Cardinals
Washington Nationals
47.9%
52.1%
+110
-117
+119
-126
+1½-180
-1½+160
+1½-172
-1½+155
6
14
-0.63297-0.59829-0.65262
New York Mets
Pittsburgh Pirates
57.1%
42.9%
-126
+116
-123
+118
-1½+121
+1½-140
-1½+121
+1½-139
5
2
-0.60453-0.60523-0.56017
Los Angeles Angels
Chicago Cubs
47.5%
52.5%
+136
-148
+135
-144
+1½-156
-1½+136
+1½-160
-1½+145
7
0
-0.87895-0.86998-0.74398
Houston Astros
Minnesota Twins
55.3%
44.7%
+120
-130
+124
-130
+1½-180
-1½+160
+1½-180
-1½+165
3
9
-0.59012-0.58212-0.80569
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
39.7%
60.3%
+151
-165
+158
-165
+1½-130
-1½+111
+1½-130
-1½+115
4
14
-0.49462-0.48397-0.50547
Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Dodgers
42.2%
57.8%
+186
-205
+185
-200
+1½-117
-1½+105
+1½-115
-1½+105
5
8
-0.41885-0.42286-0.54790
Toronto Blue Jays
Seattle Mariners
55.5%
44.5%
+117
-127
+120
-125
+1½-185
-1½+165
+1½-185
-1½+165
1
2
-0.60086-0.59784-0.81045
Baltimore Orioles
Oakland Athletics
34.3%
65.7%
-159
+146
-151
+145
-1½-105
+1½-112
-1½+100
+1½-110
3
2
-0.50811-0.51788-1.07093
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
33.8%
66.2%
-116
+106
-111
+112

+1½-210
-1½+205
8
10
-0.74492-0.74919-0.41244
Kansas City Royals
Colorado Rockies
45.7%
54.3%
-176
+161
-170
+155
-1½-120
+1½+104
-1½-118
+1½+105
2
4
-0.97995-0.95763-0.60976
Houston Astros
Minnesota Twins
55.3%
44.7%
+130
-142
+132
-140
+1½-160
-1½+140
+1½-155
-1½+145
13
12
-0.85426-0.85583-0.59200
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks157-7 (0.500)1-0.68969 
Sportsbooks157-8 (0.467)0-0.68956 
DRatings156-9 (0.400)0-0.71361
-0.02392
-0.02405

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.