MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 25, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
Javier Assad
Cristopher Sanchez
42.1%
57.9%
+172
-188
+170
-185
+1½-125
-1½+106
+1½-130
-1½+115
4.14
4.98
9.12
o8-108
u8-110
o8+100
u8-110
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
Freddy Peralta
Luis Ortiz
56.8%
43.2%
-153
+140
-144
+140
-1½+110
+1½-126
-1½+112
+1½-125
5.07
4.36
9.43
o8+100
u7½+102
o8+100
u7½+100
Overall Bet Value Active
Volatility Bet Value Active
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Zack Littell
Keider Montero
58.4%
41.6%
+111
-121
+115
-121
+1½-198
-1½+173
+1½-190
-1½+185
4.63
3.75
8.38
o8-114
u8-105
o7½-120
u8-110
Overall Bet Value Active
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
Jakob Junis
Joey Cantillo
50.7%
49.3%
+127
-138
+130
-138
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-165
-1½+152
4.44
4.36
8.80
o7½-115
u7½+100
o7½-115
u8-120
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Michael Lorenzen
DJ Herz
44.4%
55.6%
-128
+118
-125
+118
-1½+133
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-147
4.62
5.21
9.83
o8+105
u7½-103
o7½-105
u7½-105
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
New York Yankees (69-52)
Zach Eflin
Undecided Undecided
32.4%
67.6%
+117
-127
+124
-133
+1½-175
-1½+162
+1½-180
-1½+165
4.05
5.87
9.92
o8-115
u8+100
o8-110
u8-105
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Richard Fitts
Kevin Gausman
42.6%
57.4%
+125
-136
+130
-135
+1½-173
-1½+153
+1½-167
-1½+150
4.51
5.28
9.79
o8-110
u8-105
o8-110
u8-110
New York Mets (60-60)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
David Peterson
Chris Sale
44.1%
55.9%
+155
-169
+160
-170
+1½-140
-1½+125
+1½-143
-1½+130
4.12
4.74
8.86
o7½+100
u7+105
o7½-105
u7½-115
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
Jose Suarez
Davis Martin
37.1%
62.9%
-113
+103
-110
+103
-1½+140
+1½-160
-1½+148
+1½-160
4.63
5.97
10.60
o7½-110
u7½-110
o7½-110
u7½-110
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Edward Cabrera
Simeon Woods-Richardson
44.8%
55.2%
+166
-182
+170
-185
+1½-130
-1½+115
+1½-128
-1½+110
4.63
5.18
9.81
o8½-105
u8½-113
o8½-105
u8½-110
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Erick Fedde
Austin Gomber
48.7%
51.3%
-123
+113
-120
+115
-1½+120
+1½-139
-1½+127
+1½-145
4.89
5.03
9.92
o10½-110
u10+108
o10-115
u10+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Mason Black
Zac Gallen
55.5%
44.5%
+195
-217
+198
-220
+1½-105
-1½-108
+1½-105
-1½-105
4.00
3.43
7.43
o8½-105
u8½-105
o8½-105
u8½-105
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Cody Bradford
Brady Basso
35.8%
64.2%
+102
-112
+102
-110

+1½-210
-1½+192
4.52
6.01
10.53
o7-120
u7½-120
o7-115
u7+100
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Dylan Cease
Jack Flaherty
36.0%
64.0%
+121
-132
+123
-130
+1½-179
-1½+160
+1½-180
-1½+160
3.50
4.97
8.47
o8+100
u7½-102
o7½-115
u7½-105
Games for Sep 24, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Houston Astros (70-50)
39.5%
60.5%
-149
+137
-139
+138
-1½+113
+1½-125
-1½+115
+1½-129
9.14
o7-127
u7½-115
o7-115
u7+105
1st
BOT
0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
San Francisco Giants
Atlanta Braves
48.7%
51.3%
+186
-205
+189
-196
+1½-117
-1½+100
+1½-115
-1½+105
1
3
-0.41885-0.42039-0.66844
Houston Astros
Toronto Blue Jays
50.0%
50.0%
-115
+105
-111
+106


9
2
-0.64814-0.65377-0.69351
Cincinnati Reds
New York Yankees
42.4%
57.6%
+164
-179
+163
-175
+1½-123
-1½+105
+1½-125
-1½+110
3
2
-0.99093-0.98345-0.85727
New York Mets
Washington Nationals
50.2%
49.8%
-122
+112
-123
+115
-1½+130
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-150
5
7
-0.77245-0.78202-0.69802
Boston Red Sox
Miami Marlins
60.1%
39.9%
-123
+113
-125
+116
-1½+130
+1½-150
-1½+131
+1½-140
7
2
-0.61582-0.60613-0.50863
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
54.1%
45.9%
+198
-220
+197
-205
+1½-117
-1½+100
+1½-115
-1½+100
8
2
-1.11474-1.09736-0.61373
St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
54.9%
45.1%
+108
-118
+111
-118
+1½-192
-1½+167
+1½-190
-1½+175
4
5
-0.63563-0.62891-0.79533
Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers
29.1%
70.9%
+158
-173
+176
-180
+1½-129
-1½+110
+1½-115
-1½+110
5
6
-0.47726-0.44699-0.34458
Baltimore Orioles
Seattle Mariners
39.8%
60.2%
-105
-105
-104
-101

-1½+160
+1½-170
2
0
-0.69315-0.68595-0.92065
Los Angeles Angels
Oakland Athletics
43.1%
56.9%
-111
+101
-108
+100
-1½+150
+1½-165
-1½+155
+1½-170
5
7
-0.72144-0.71219-0.56442
Milwaukee Brewers
Colorado Rockies
58.0%
42.0%
-111
+101
-109
+101
-1½+130
+1½-144
-1½+135
+1½-150
4
3
-0.66563-0.66984-0.54554
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
54.8%
45.2%
+101
-111
+104
-111
+1½-192
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+170
5
1
-0.72144-0.72909-0.60126
San Diego Padres
Texas Rangers
57.2%
42.8%
-116
+106
-117
+110


0
7
-0.74492-0.75717-0.84870
Philadelphia Phillies
Chicago Cubs
51.5%
48.5%
+108
-118
+110
-112
+1½-180
-1½+160
+1½-175
-1½+170
6
4
-0.75417-0.74642-0.66271
Detroit Tigers
Minnesota Twins
40.8%
59.2%
+117
-127
+114
-120
+1½-193
-1½+175

3
5
-0.60086-0.61880-0.52487
San Francisco Giants
Atlanta Braves
52.7%
47.3%
+172
-188
+176
-187
+1½-120
-1½+105
+1½-115
-1½+110
5
3
-1.02085-1.02901-0.64016
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks146-7 (0.464)1-0.70597 
Sportsbooks146-8 (0.429)0-0.70679 
DRatings146-8 (0.429)0-0.69940
0.00656
0.00739

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.