MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 25, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
Javier Assad
Cristopher Sanchez
42.1%
57.9%
+172
-188
+170
-185
+1½-120
-1½+106
+1½-130
-1½+112
4.14
4.98
9.12
o8-108
u8-110
o8+100
u8-110
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
Freddy Peralta
Luis Ortiz
56.8%
43.2%
-153
+140
-144
+140
-1½+110
+1½-126
-1½+110
+1½-126
5.07
4.36
9.43
o8+100
u7½+102
o8+100
u7½+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Zack Littell
Keider Montero
58.4%
41.6%
+115
-125
+117
-124
+1½-190
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+185
4.63
3.75
8.38
o8-110
u8-107
o7½-120
u8-110
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
Jakob Junis
Andrew Walters
50.7%
49.3%
+132
-144
+132
-140
+1½-165
-1½+150
+1½-165
-1½+152
4.44
4.36
8.80
o8+100
u7½+100
o8+100
u8-110
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Michael Lorenzen
DJ Herz
44.4%
55.6%
-130
+120
-127
+128
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+130
+1½-140
4.62
5.21
9.83
o7½-105
u7½-104
o7½-105
u7½-105
Overall Bet Value Active
All Bet Values Active
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
New York Yankees (69-52)
Zach Eflin
Marcus Stroman
32.4%
67.6%
+108
-118
+112
-120
+1½-182
-1½+162
+1½-190
-1½+170
4.05
5.87
9.92
o8½-105
u8½-114
o8-115
u8+100
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Richard Fitts
Kevin Gausman
42.6%
57.4%
+117
-127
+118
-124
+1½-178
-1½+158
+1½-175
-1½+166
4.51
5.28
9.79
o7½-118
u8-115
o7½-105
u8-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
New York Mets (60-60)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
David Peterson
Chris Sale
44.1%
55.9%
+149
-163
+160
-170
+1½-145
-1½+125
+1½-143
-1½+130
4.12
4.74
8.86
o7½+100
u7+105
o7½-105
u7½-115
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
Jose Suarez
Davis Martin
37.1%
62.9%
-115
+105
-110
+103
-1½+140
+1½-160
-1½+148
+1½-160
4.63
5.97
10.60
o7½-110
u8-120
o7½-110
u7½-110
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Edward Cabrera
Simeon Woods-Richardson
44.8%
55.2%
+171
-187
+170
-185
+1½-126
-1½+110
+1½-128
-1½+110
4.63
5.18
9.81
o8½-110
u8½-108
o8½-105
u8½-110
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Erick Fedde
Austin Gomber
48.7%
51.3%
-123
+113
-120
+117
-1½+118
+1½-135
-1½+125
+1½-138
4.89
5.03
9.92
o10½-105
u10½-110
o10½-105
u10+100
Overall Bet Value Active
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Mason Black
Zac Gallen
55.5%
44.5%
+200
-223
+198
-220
+1½-105
-1½-115
+1½-105
-1½-105
4.00
3.43
7.43
o8½-110
u8½-110
o8½-105
u8½-105
Overall Bet Value Active
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Cody Bradford
Brady Basso
35.8%
64.2%
+104
-114
+102
-110
+1½-210
-1½+185
+1½-210
-1½+192
4.52
6.01
10.53
o7½+100
u7½-120
o7-115
u7+100
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Dylan Cease
Jack Flaherty
36.0%
64.0%
+121
-132
+122
-127
+1½-179
-1½+159
+1½-180
-1½+168
3.50
4.97
8.47
o8+100
u7½-102
o7½-115
u7½-105
Games for Sep 24, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Houston Astros (70-50)
39.5%
60.5%
-149
+137
-139
+138
-1½+113
+1½-125
-1½+115
+1½-129
9.14
o7-127
u7½-115
o7-115
u7+105
8th
TOP
5
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Houston Astros
Toronto Blue Jays
49.0%
51.0%
-102
-108
+100
-107
+1½-205
-1½+175
+1½-200
-1½+176
6
7
-0.67930-0.67666-0.67295
Cincinnati Reds
New York Yankees
42.4%
57.6%
+191
-212
+190
-210
+1½-105
-1½-110
+1½-105
-1½-105
5
4
-1.09103-1.08672-0.85727
New York Mets
Washington Nationals
50.9%
49.1%
-130
+121
-138
+132
-1½+113
+1½-130
-1½+110
+1½-125
7
2
-0.58810-0.55582-0.67505
Boston Red Sox
Miami Marlins
54.2%
45.8%
-152
+139
-152
+145
-1½+102
+1½-120
-1½+107
+1½-120
8
3
-0.52690-0.51683-0.61328
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
54.2%
45.8%
+191
-212
+190
-200
+1½+100
-1½-114
+1½-110
-1½-105
6
7
-0.40928-0.41690-0.78180
St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
52.9%
47.1%
+109
-119
+110
-116
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+170
7
4
-0.75877-0.75509-0.63663
Milwaukee Brewers
Colorado Rockies
55.0%
45.0%
-142
+130
-140
+138
-1½+107
+1½-120
-1½+107
+1½-115
7
8
-0.85426-0.87060-0.79944
New York Mets
Washington Nationals
50.2%
49.8%
-113
+103
-114
+106
-1½+142
+1½-162
-1½+140
+1½-154
9
7
-0.65676-0.64777-0.68880
Houston Astros
Toronto Blue Jays
48.6%
51.4%
-124
+114
-117
+114
-1½+132
+1½-145
-1½+139
+1½-145
3
1
-0.61201-0.62416-0.72165
Texas Rangers
Baltimore Orioles
50.4%
49.6%
+149
-163
+155
-167
+1½-145
-1½+126
+1½-140
-1½+122
11
2
-0.93344-0.95355-0.68613
Oakland Athletics
Arizona Diamondbacks
58.7%
41.3%
+175
-192
+176
-190
+1½-117
-1½+105
+1½-120
-1½+105
1
5
-0.44021-0.44020-0.88479
Minnesota Twins
Seattle Mariners
45.9%
54.1%
-110
+100
-105
+102
-1½+160
+1½-174
-1½+160
+1½-175
5
3
-0.67015-0.67627-0.77871
Detroit Tigers
Los Angeles Angels
39.3%
60.7%
-102
-108
-102
-105
+1½-205
-1½+180
+1½-210
-1½+185
7
6
-0.70719-0.70029-0.93303
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
52.0%
48.0%
-105
-105
-105
+109
-1½+151
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-145
4
10
-0.69315-0.72778-0.73395
Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
49.6%
50.4%
+106
-116
+106
-112
+1½-205
-1½+180

0
2
-0.64392-0.65174-0.68441
Colorado Rockies
Chicago White Sox
38.3%
61.7%
+193
-214
+197
-212
+1½-117
-1½+100
+1½-114
-1½-104
5
4
-1.09757-1.10461-0.95904
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks146-7 (0.464)1-0.70597 
Sportsbooks146-8 (0.429)0-0.70679 
DRatings146-8 (0.429)0-0.69940
0.00656
0.00739

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.