MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 26, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedNew York Mets (60-60)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Sean Manaea
Max Fried
37.0%
63.0%




3.09
4.46
7.55


Miami Marlins (51-70)
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Valente Bellozo
David Festa
44.8%
55.2%
+228
-258
+221
-240
+1½+108
-1½-125
+1½+104
-1½-115
4.62
5.17
9.79
o8½-118
u8½+100
o8½-120
u8½+100
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Joe Musgrove
Walker Buehler
41.7%
58.3%
-104
-106
+100
-106
+1½-210
-1½+180
+1½-210
-1½+185
3.88
4.74
8.62
o8½-115
u8½-102
o8½-110
u8½-110
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Games for Sep 25, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
New York Yankees (69-52)
31.0%
69.0%
+149
-163
+151
-153
+1½-145
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+140
8.79
o8-115
u8-105
o8+100
u8-105
2nd
TOP
0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Detroit Tigers
Los Angeles Angels
39.3%
60.7%
-102
-108
-102
-105
+1½-205
-1½+180
+1½-210
-1½+185
7
6
-0.70719-0.70029-0.93303
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
52.0%
48.0%
-105
-105
-105
+109
-1½+151
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-145
4
10
-0.69315-0.72778-0.73395
Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
49.6%
50.4%
+106
-116
+106
-112
+1½-205
-1½+180

0
2
-0.64392-0.65174-0.68441
Colorado Rockies
Chicago White Sox
38.3%
61.7%
+193
-214
+197
-212
+1½-117
-1½+100
+1½-114
-1½-104
5
4
-1.09757-1.10461-0.95904
Cleveland Indians
Kansas City Royals
49.3%
50.7%
+117
-127
+116
-123
+1½-173
-1½+160
+1½-175
-1½+163
2
6
-0.60086-0.60941-0.67828
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
45.6%
54.4%
+168
-184
+171
-185
+1½-127
-1½+110
+1½-129
-1½+111
1
7
-0.45484-0.45009-0.60853
Washington Nationals
Tampa Bay Rays
41.2%
58.8%
+166
-182
+170
-182
+1½-127
-1½+110
+1½-130
-1½+115
0
5
-0.45901-0.45353-0.53040
Houston Astros
New York Mets
52.9%
47.1%
+112
-122
+110
-118
+1½-180
-1½+160
+1½-185
-1½+165
10
5
-0.77245-0.75927-0.63769
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
48.2%
51.8%
-119
+110
-110
+104
-1½+140
+1½-155
-1½+146
+1½-160
8
1
-0.62933-0.66054-0.72998
San Diego Padres
Boston Red Sox
48.4%
51.6%
-103
-107
-102
-105
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-185
-1½+170
1
4
-0.68389-0.68605-0.66099
Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
42.0%
58.0%
+219
-247
+225
-250
+1½+107
-1½-125
+1½+105
-1½-120
6
7
-0.36491-0.35820-0.54445
Pittsburgh Pirates
Atlanta Braves
34.3%
65.7%
+167
-182
+175
-187
+1½-120
-1½+101
+1½-115
-1½+102
4
2
-1.00179-1.02669-1.07020
Minnesota Twins
Seattle Mariners
47.5%
52.5%
-114
+104
-110
+105
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+155
+1½-170
5
1
-0.65243-0.65817-0.74459
Detroit Tigers
Los Angeles Angels
40.2%
59.8%
-113
+103
-113
+106
-1½+145
+1½-160
-1½+140
+1½-155
5
6
-0.73091-0.73854-0.51421
Texas Rangers
Baltimore Orioles
48.5%
51.5%
+148
-162
+152
-161
+1½-137
-1½+125
+1½-138
-1½+120
5
6
-0.50206-0.49671-0.66382
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
52.7%
47.3%
-188
+172
-188
+176
-1½-110
+1½-103
-1½-105
+1½+100
14
7
-0.44674-0.44150-0.64046
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.61219 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.61338 
DRatings127-5 (0.583)0-0.65409
-0.04190
-0.04071

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.