MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 26, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedNew York Mets (60-60)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Sean Manaea
Max Fried
37.0%
63.0%




3.09
4.46
7.55


San Diego Padres (67-56)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Joe Musgrove
Walker Buehler
41.7%
58.3%
-105
-105
+100
-106
+1½-210
-1½+180
+1½-210
-1½+185
3.86
4.74
8.60
o8½-116
u8½+100
o8½-110
u8½+100
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Games for Sep 25, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
New York Yankees (69-52)
31.0%
69.0%
+149
-163
+151
-153
+1½-145
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+140
8.79
o8-115
u8-105
o8+100
u8-105
7th
BOT
0
7
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
44.8%
55.2%
+228
-258
+223
-240
+1½+109
-1½-125
+1½+107
-1½-115
9.79
o8½-115
u8½-105
o8½-120
u8½+100
6th
BOT
4
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Washington Nationals
Tampa Bay Rays
37.2%
62.8%
+121
-132
+123
-125
+1½-180
-1½+160
+1½-180
-1½+163
8
1
-0.81423-0.80598-0.99004
San Diego Padres
Boston Red Sox
44.3%
55.7%
+124
-135
+126
-134
+1½-164
-1½+145
+1½-160
-1½+148
11
1
-0.82716-0.83037-0.81308
Oakland Athletics
Arizona Diamondbacks
53.7%
46.3%
+169
-185
+173
-184
+1½-125
-1½+106
+1½-122
-1½+110
0
3
-0.45279-0.44812-0.77059
Houston Astros
New York Mets
52.7%
47.3%
-101
-109
+105
-110
+1½-195
-1½+180
-1½+168
+1½-180
9
6
-0.71192-0.72940-0.64124
Cleveland Indians
Kansas City Royals
49.3%
50.7%
-115
+105
-108
+107


7
2
-0.64814-0.65772-0.70824
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
38.8%
61.2%
+106
-116
+106
-114
+1½-198
-1½+175
+1½-200
-1½+180
5
3
-0.74492-0.74068-0.94734
Pittsburgh Pirates
Atlanta Braves
27.4%
72.6%
+127
-138
+126
-132
+1½-180
-1½+160
+1½-170
-1½+163
1
2
-0.56518-0.57531-0.32021
Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
36.7%
63.3%
+219
-247
+227
-235
+1½+110
-1½-128
+1½+110
-1½-120
3
2
-1.18502-1.19208-1.00114
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
47.4%
52.6%
-119
+109
-120
+117
-1½+135
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-154
3
9
-0.75877-0.78100-0.64304
Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
49.6%
50.4%
+177
-194
+175
-187
+1½-120
-1½+102
+1½-125
-1½+110
9
4
-1.03950-1.02669-0.70197
Colorado Rockies
Chicago White Sox
38.7%
61.3%
+100
-110
+102
-109
+1½-195
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+180
3
11
-0.67015-0.66744-0.48888
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
53.7%
46.3%
+118
-128
+123
-128

-1½+185
+1½-200
3
5
-0.59724-0.58709-0.76940
Oakland Athletics
Arizona Diamondbacks
58.7%
41.3%
+158
-173
+160
-170
+1½-133
-1½+120
+1½-130
-1½+120
9
4
-0.96885-0.96964-0.53239
Minnesota Twins
Seattle Mariners
47.5%
52.5%
+117
-127
+116
-122
+1½-192
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+175
2
3
-0.60086-0.61109-0.64422
Detroit Tigers
Los Angeles Angels
40.8%
59.2%
-115
+108
-116
+115
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+135
+1½-150
2
5
-0.74790-0.76761-0.52459
Colorado Rockies
Chicago White Sox
40.0%
60.0%
+125
-136
+132
-132
+1½-167
-1½+155
+1½-160
-1½+150
3
5
-0.57167-0.56393-0.51044
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks96-3 (0.667)0-0.61491 
Sportsbooks96-3 (0.667)0-0.61799 
DRatings95-4 (0.556)0-0.67469
-0.05978
-0.05671

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.