MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 26, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedNew York Mets (60-60)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Sean Manaea
Max Fried
37.0%
63.0%




3.09
4.46
7.55


Games for Sep 25, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
41.7%
58.3%
-111
+101
-104
-101

+1½-210
-1½+190
8.60
o8½-115
u8½-101
o8½-115
u8½+100
8th
TOP
2
5

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Detroit Tigers
Los Angeles Angels
40.8%
59.2%
-115
+108
-116
+115
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+135
+1½-150
2
5
-0.74790-0.76761-0.52459
Colorado Rockies
Chicago White Sox
40.0%
60.0%
+125
-136
+132
-132
+1½-167
-1½+155
+1½-160
-1½+150
3
5
-0.57167-0.56393-0.51044
Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
50.2%
49.8%
+109
-119
+116
-125
+1½-185
-1½+167
+1½-180
-1½+168
0
1
-0.63156-0.60613-0.69788
Cleveland Indians
Kansas City Royals
46.0%
54.0%
-104
-106
+101
-103

-1½+155
+1½-165
3
10
-0.68852-0.68336-0.61595
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
38.8%
61.2%
+115
-125
+119
-125
+1½-175
-1½+157
+1½-170
-1½+160
2
4
-0.60825-0.59989-0.49065
Pittsburgh Pirates
Atlanta Braves
34.3%
65.7%
+200
-210
+190
-200
+1½-105
-1½-110
+1½-113
-1½-105
1
6
-0.40015-0.41690-0.41998
San Diego Padres
Boston Red Sox
54.7%
45.3%
+144
-157
+140
-150
+1½-144
-1½+130
+1½-143
-1½+130
9
2
-0.91250-0.89199-0.60320
Houston Astros
New York Mets
52.9%
47.1%
-102
-108
+100
-107

-1½+160
+1½-170
2
7
-0.67930-0.67666-0.75186
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
48.8%
51.2%
-103
-107
+102
-106

-1½+160
+1½-175
16
5
-0.70249-0.71266-0.71711
Texas Rangers
Baltimore Orioles
48.5%
51.5%
+104
-114
+101
-107
+1½-192
-1½+167
+1½-195
-1½+175
1
2
-0.65243-0.67421-0.66382
Washington Nationals
Tampa Bay Rays
39.0%
61.0%
+164
-179
+170
-173
+1½-136
-1½+125
+1½-135
-1½+120
1
3
-0.46399-0.46024-0.49379
Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
42.0%
58.0%
+200
-213
+198
-209
+1½+100
-1½-114
+1½+100
-1½-105
0
2
-0.39866-0.40288-0.54445
Detroit Tigers
Los Angeles Angels
43.9%
56.1%
-152
+139
-147
+140
-1½+108
+1½-115
-1½+112
+1½-125
0
5
-0.89265-0.88719-0.57830
Cleveland Indians
Kansas City Royals
49.3%
50.7%
-106
-104
-107
+103
-1½+153
+1½-165
-1½+155
+1½-160
1
2
-0.69780-0.71752-0.67828
Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
49.6%
50.4%
+130
-142
+130
-138
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+146
11
4
-0.85426-0.84742-0.70197
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
47.8%
52.2%
-124
+117
-118
+122
-1½+120
+1½-140
-1½+130
+1½-140
2
9
-0.78902-0.78920-0.65038
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks85-3 (0.625)0-0.69484 
Sportsbooks85-3 (0.625)0-0.69193 
DRatings85-3 (0.625)0-0.62014
0.07470
0.07180

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.