MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 26, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedNew York Mets (60-60)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Sean Manaea
Max Fried
37.0%
63.0%




3.09
4.46
7.55


Games for Sep 25, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
47.8%
52.2%
-124
+117
-118
+122
-1½+120
+1½-140
-1½+130
+1½-140
2
9
-0.78902-0.78920-0.65038
Texas Rangers
Baltimore Orioles
44.9%
55.1%
+178
-195
+180
-190
+1½-117
-1½+100
+1½-120
-1½+105
2
11
-0.43448-0.43510-0.59584
Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
36.2%
63.8%
+262
-300
+263
-285
+1½+118
-1½-135
+1½+130
-1½-135
7
4
-1.31237-1.30486-1.01677
Atlanta Braves
Chicago White Sox
45.5%
54.5%
-266
+235
-270
+250
-1½-175
+1½+155
-1½-180
+1½+165
0
1
-1.23392-1.26808-0.60719
Chicago Cubs
San Francisco Giants
38.1%
61.9%
-110
+100
-105
+100
-1½+155
+1½-173
-1½+160
+1½-175
5
3
-0.67015-0.68116-0.96509
Minnesota Twins
Arizona Diamondbacks
55.2%
44.8%
-110
+106
-111
+104


13
6
-0.65583-0.65846-0.59388
Chicago Cubs
San Francisco Giants
38.1%
61.9%
-110
+105
-101
-105

+1½-200
-1½+190
3
4
-0.72940-0.68363-0.47957
Minnesota Twins
Arizona Diamondbacks
53.5%
46.5%
-118
+108
-111
+115
-1½+133
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-152
8
3
-0.63563-0.63346-0.62517
Los Angeles Dodgers
Chicago White Sox
52.7%
47.3%
-164
+150
-158
+152
-1½-106
+1½-105
-1½+100
+1½-110
4
0
-0.49707-0.49956-0.63997
Atlanta Braves
St. Louis Cardinals
51.8%
48.2%
-117
+108
-110
+107
-1½+145
+1½-160
-1½+145
+1½-160
1
4
-0.75211-0.73443-0.73023
New York Yankees
New York Mets
51.0%
49.0%
-120
+110
-121
+118
-1½+130
+1½-148
-1½+135
+1½-145
2
12
-0.76336-0.78553-0.71372
Cleveland Indians
Baltimore Orioles
53.7%
46.3%
+198
-220
+205
-225
+1½-106
-1½-110
+1½+100
-1½-113
2
4
-0.39750-0.38769-0.76942
Washington Nationals
San Diego Padres
41.6%
58.4%
+165
-180
+166
-180
+1½-135
-1½+115
+1½-130
-1½+119
5
8
-0.46185-0.46045-0.53818
Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles Angels
50.5%
49.5%
+125
-136
+129
-133
+1½-165
-1½+155
+1½-160
-1½+150
2
5
-0.57167-0.56815-0.70395
Atlanta Braves
St. Louis Cardinals
51.2%
48.8%
-123
+113
-114
+110
-1½+135
+1½-155
-1½+142
+1½-155
6
2
-0.61582-0.63864-0.67025
Texas Rangers
Milwaukee Brewers
32.2%
67.8%
-116
+106
-109
+102
-1½+140
+1½-159
-1½+143
+1½-155
5
6
-0.74492-0.71953-0.38803
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks95-4 (0.556)0-0.69779 
Sportsbooks95-4 (0.556)0-0.69287 
DRatings96-3 (0.667)0-0.61119
0.08660
0.08168

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.