MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 26, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedNew York Mets (60-60)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Sean Manaea
Max Fried
37.0%
63.0%




3.09
4.46
7.55


Games for Sep 25, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Miami Marlins
Kansas City Royals
45.8%
54.2%
+177
-194
+181
-188
+1½-110
-1½-110
+1½-110
-1½-103
1
5
-0.43638-0.43513-0.61168
Colorado Rockies
Houston Astros
36.8%
63.2%
+167
-183
+175
-186
+1½-125
-1½+113
+1½-120
-1½+106
1
7
-0.45692-0.44413-0.45822
Philadelphia Phillies
Detroit Tigers
56.9%
43.1%
-158
+145
-157
+152
-1½-111
+1½-105
-1½-105
+1½-105
6
2
-0.51073-0.50053-0.56372
Pittsburgh Pirates
Cincinnati Reds
36.4%
63.6%
+119
-129
+125
-128
+1½-163
-1½+145
+1½-155
-1½+147
6
1
-0.80365-0.81676-1.01176
Seattle Mariners
Tampa Bay Rays
39.2%
60.8%
-101
-108
+100
-110


5
2
-0.70966-0.71668-0.93598
Chicago Cubs
San Francisco Giants
40.7%
59.3%
+116
-126
+122
-120
+1½-190
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+175
1
5
-0.60453-0.60203-0.52187
Minnesota Twins
Arizona Diamondbacks
53.5%
46.5%
-125
+115
-125
+120
-1½+130
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-150
4
5
-0.78592-0.79851-0.76608
Washington Nationals
San Diego Padres
35.5%
64.5%
-123
+113
-119
+117
-1½+140
+1½-156

7
9
-0.77696-0.77892-0.43868
Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles Angels
50.5%
49.5%
-104
-106
+105
-107
+1½-208
-1½+178
+1½-190
-1½+189
5
7
-0.68852-0.66458-0.70395
Texas Rangers
Milwaukee Brewers
36.5%
63.5%
-105
-105
-104
-105

+1½-200
-1½+176
1
3
-0.69315-0.69081-0.45394
Miami Marlins
Kansas City Royals
48.2%
51.8%
+166
-182
+176
-182
+1½-110
-1½-103
+1½-113
-1½+100
2
1
-0.99943-1.02290-0.72983
Los Angeles Dodgers
Chicago White Sox
52.6%
47.4%
-208
+190
-205
+190
-1½-134
+1½+115
-1½-130
+1½+115
4
3
-0.41252-0.41412-0.64205
Colorado Rockies
Houston Astros
36.8%
63.2%
+227
-257
+233
-260
+1½+105
-1½-123
+1½+105
-1½-120
2
5
-0.35404-0.34770-0.45822
New York Yankees
New York Mets
56.9%
43.1%
-135
+124
-133
+128
-1½+117
+1½-130
-1½+120
+1½-138
7
9
-0.82716-0.83354-0.84276
Toronto Blue Jays
Boston Red Sox
51.1%
48.9%
+120
-130
+119
-126
+1½-168
-1½+155
+1½-165
-1½+160
9
4
-0.80802-0.79795-0.67101
Pittsburgh Pirates
Cincinnati Reds
35.1%
64.9%
+115
-125
+115
-124
+1½-185
-1½+165
+1½-175
-1½+170
9
5
-0.78592-0.78397-1.04646
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks95-4 (0.556)0-0.69779 
Sportsbooks95-4 (0.556)0-0.69287 
DRatings96-3 (0.667)0-0.61119
0.08660
0.08168

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.