MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 27, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Undecided Undecided
Jameson Taillon
51.6%
48.4%
+127
-152

+1½-180
-1½+150

3.94
3.77
7.71
o6½-105
u6½-115

Chicago White Sox (71-50)
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Garrett Crochet
Undecided Undecided
57.8%
42.2%
+140
-168

+1½-145
-1½+125

4.96
4.14
9.10
o7½+100
u7½-120

Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Ranger Suarez
Trevor Williams
50.7%
49.3%
-173
+158
-173
+160
-1½-105
+1½-115
-1½-105
+1½-113
4.80
4.73
9.53
o8-115
u8-103
o8-120
u8+100
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
New York Yankees (69-52)
Jared Jones
Carlos Rodon
32.4%
67.6%
+148
-180

+1½-130
-1½+110

3.80
5.62
9.42
o8-120
u8+100

Miami Marlins (51-70)
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Adam Oller
Jose Berrios
38.7%
61.3%
+165
-180
+173
-184
+1½-130
-1½+110
+1½-130
-1½+115
4.06
5.25
9.31
o8-120
u8+100
o8-110
u8-105
Houston Astros (70-50)
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
Ronel Blanco
Joey Cantillo
55.9%
44.1%
+108
-118
+114
-121
+1½-210
-1½+180
+1½-188
-1½+180
4.50
3.87
8.37
o8+100
u7½-102
o8+100
u8-115
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Taj Bradley
Nick Pivetta
54.9%
45.1%
+120
-130
+120
-130
+1½-185
-1½+165
+1½-180
-1½+165
5.41
4.90
10.31
o8-108
u8-110
o8-110
u8-110
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Brady Singer
Max Fried
33.3%
66.7%
+174
-190
+176
-190
+1½-125
-1½+105
+1½-123
-1½+110
2.82
4.54
7.36
o7½-110
u7½-105
o7½-105
u7½-110
New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Sean Manaea
Frankie Montas
42.9%
57.1%
-123
+113
-120
+112
-1½+137
+1½-157
-1½+140
+1½-155
3.92
4.66
8.58
o7½-113
u7½-105
o7½-115
u7½+100
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Undecided Undecided
Cal Quantrill
60.8%
39.2%
-185
+153

-1½-135
+1½+115

5.65
4.51
10.16
o11½-115
u11½-105

Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Cade Povich
Pablo Lopez
39.2%
60.8%
+142
-172

+1½-140
-1½+115

4.81
5.95
10.76
o8½-115
u8½-105

Texas Rangers (42-78)
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Jacob deGrom
Reid Detmers
39.3%
60.7%
-160
+147
-160
+150
-1½+105
+1½-125
-1½+110
+1½-118
4.91
6.03
10.94
o7½-105
u7½-110
o7½-115
u7½-105
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Yu Darvish
Merrill Kelly
62.6%
37.4%
+108
-130

+1½-185
-1½+155

4.44
3.14
7.58
o9-105
u9-115

Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
JP Sears
Undecided Undecided
52.8%
47.2%
+141
-170

+1½-160
-1½+130

4.79
4.50
9.29
o7½-105
u7½-115

St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Miles Mikolas
Landen Roupp
40.0%
60.0%
+119
-129
+112
-120
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-195
-1½+175
3.63
4.69
8.32
o7½-105
u7½-113
o7½-115
u7½-105
Games for Sep 26, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Seattle Mariners
Tampa Bay Rays
40.8%
59.2%
-124
+114
-121
+116
-1½+134
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-150
3
11
-0.78145-0.78054-0.52351
Philadelphia Phillies
Detroit Tigers
55.8%
44.2%
-113
+103
-112
+104
-1½+148
+1½-168
-1½+150
+1½-160
1
4
-0.73091-0.73126-0.81577
Cleveland Indians
Baltimore Orioles
53.7%
46.3%
+139
-152
+144
-150
+1½-140
-1½+125
+1½-140
-1½+130
10
8
-0.89265-0.90177-0.62228
Chicago Cubs
San Francisco Giants
38.1%
61.9%
-112
+102
-109
+102
-1½+155
+1½-169
-1½+155
+1½-165
4
5
-0.72619-0.71953-0.47957
Washington Nationals
San Diego Padres
41.3%
58.7%
+167
-183
+176
-181
+1½-130
-1½+110
+1½-130
-1½+117
6
7
-0.45692-0.44629-0.53328
Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles Angels
49.9%
50.1%
+126
-137
+129
-135
+1½-166
-1½+146
+1½-165
-1½+155
1
5
-0.56840-0.56539-0.69111
Texas Rangers
Milwaukee Brewers
38.8%
61.2%
+155
-169
+158
-167
+1½-140
-1½+125
+1½-135
-1½+120
3
6
-0.48503-0.48224-0.49106
Miami Marlins
Kansas City Royals
48.2%
51.8%
+220
-248
+221
-245
+1½+112
-1½-125
+1½+117
-1½-125
1
4
-0.36361-0.36373-0.65776
Los Angeles Dodgers
Chicago White Sox
52.6%
47.4%
-110
+100
-108
+100
-1½+142
+1½-162
-1½+141
+1½-160
3
0
-0.67015-0.67446-0.64205
Atlanta Braves
St. Louis Cardinals
51.8%
48.2%
-125
+115
-120
+117
-1½+130
+1½-148
-1½+135
+1½-150
3
4
-0.78592-0.78100-0.73023
Toronto Blue Jays
Boston Red Sox
47.0%
53.0%
+148
-162
+151
-148
+1½-142
-1½+125

6
7
-0.50206-0.51139-0.63418
Pittsburgh Pirates
Cincinnati Reds
36.4%
63.6%
+124
-135
+125
-131
+1½-165
-1½+150
+1½-165
-1½+160
5
11
-0.57499-0.57869-0.45190
Seattle Mariners
Tampa Bay Rays
39.2%
60.8%
+101
-111
+100
-105
+1½-215
-1½+195
+1½-210
-1½+190
3
4
-0.66563-0.68116-0.49791
Philadelphia Phillies
Detroit Tigers
61.1%
38.9%
-174
+159
-174
+162
-1½-113
+1½-105
-1½-112
+1½-105
8
1
-0.47499-0.47064-0.49266
Cleveland Indians
Baltimore Orioles
53.7%
46.3%
-101
-109
+101
-104
+1½-205
-1½+175
+1½-200
-1½+185
3
2
-0.71192-0.70542-0.62228
New York Mets
Chicago Cubs
51.1%
48.9%
-102
-108
+100
-102
+1½-213
-1½+183
+1½-200
-1½+180
5
2
-0.70719-0.69808-0.67080
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks95-4 (0.556)0-0.69779 
Sportsbooks95-4 (0.556)0-0.69287 
DRatings96-3 (0.667)0-0.61119
0.08660
0.08168

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.