MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Trevor Williams
Jameson Taillon
47.7%
52.3%
+151
-165
+152
-163
+1½-140
-1½+120
+1½-135
-1½+117
5.06
5.30
10.36
o9+100
u9-115
o9-105
u9-115
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Mitch Keller
Nick Martinez
35.1%
64.9%
+107
-117
+115
-123
+1½-180
-1½+170
+1½-175
-1½+170
3.86
5.42
9.28
o9-105
u9-115
o9+100
u9-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Jose Berrios
Tyler Alexander
46.1%
53.9%
-101
-109
+100
-108
+1½-215
-1½+190

4.30
4.71
9.01
o7½-115
u7½-105
o7½-115
u7½-105
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Keider Montero
Corbin Burnes
46.5%
53.5%
+172
-188
+174
-192
+1½-140
-1½+115
+1½-130
-1½+110
4.28
4.65
8.93
o7½-115
u7½-105
o7½-120
u7½+100
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
New York Mets (60-60)
Cristopher Sanchez
David Peterson
47.3%
52.7%
-104
-106
-104
-105

+1½-225
-1½+200
4.15
4.44
8.59
o7½+100
u7½-115
o7½+100
u7½-120
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Charlie Morton
Valente Bellozo
48.4%
51.6%
-195
+178
-199
+181
-1½-120
+1½+105
-1½-115
+1½+102
4.27
4.44
8.71
o8½-115
u8½+100
o8½-115
u8½+100
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
David Festa
Richard Fitts
41.5%
58.5%
-105
-105
-103
-105

-1½+150
+1½-170
4.56
5.45
10.01
o9+100
u9-120
o9+100
u9-115
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Texas Rangers (42-78)
George Kirby
Jacob deGrom
52.2%
47.8%
+105
-115
+110
-114
+1½-210
-1½+180
+1½-204
-1½+185
5.39
5.17
10.56
o7-118
u7-102
o7-105
u7½-120
Volatility Bet Value Active
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Zac Gallen
Colin Rea
39.0%
61.0%
-118
+108
-120
+110
-1½+135
+1½-155
-1½+145
+1½-156
3.31
4.46
7.77
o8-105
u8-115
o7½-120
u8-115
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Tyler Anderson
Justin Verlander
32.3%
67.7%
+222
-250
+227
-240
+1½-105
-1½-115
+1½+102
-1½-115
3.01
4.82
7.83
o8-120
u8+100
o8-120
u8+100
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Mason Black
Michael Wacha
57.3%
42.7%
+143
-156
+147
-154
+1½-145
-1½+125
+1½-150
-1½+131
4.62
3.86
8.48
o8½-104
u8½-115
o8½+100
u8+100
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Ben Lively
Kyle Gibson
49.0%
51.0%
+101
-111
+100
-110
+1½-210
-1½+180
+1½-211
-1½+185
4.49
4.59
9.08
o8-120
u8½-115
o8-115
u8-105
New York Yankees (69-52)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Gerrit Cole
J.T. Ginn
53.5%
46.5%
-189
+173
-184
+172
-1½-110
+1½+100
-1½-110
+1½-106
4.64
4.27
8.91
o8-120
u8+100
o8-115
u8-105
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Garrett Crochet
Joe Musgrove
46.4%
53.6%
+220
-240
+210
-225
+1½-108
-1½-110
+1½-110
-1½-103
4.27
4.65
8.92
o7-110
u7-110
o7-105
u7-110
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Kyle Freeland
Undecided Undecided
33.0%
67.0%
+195
-240

+1½-110
-1½-110

4.26
6.02
10.28
o9½-105
u9½-115

Games for Sep 19, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Kansas City Royals
New York Yankees
36.4%
63.6%
+130
-142
+135
-145
+1½-160
-1½+140
+1½-155
-1½+143
3
4
-0.55443-0.54173-0.45282
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
60.9%
39.1%
-166
+152
-165
+152
-1½+100
+1½-114
-1½+100
+1½-115
1
5
-0.94492-0.94353-0.93823
Tampa Bay Rays
Philadelphia Phillies
51.0%
49.0%
+205
-217
+205
-220
+1½-103
-1½-115
+1½-105
-1½-110
2
3
-0.39134-0.38995-0.71325
Colorado Rockies
Detroit Tigers
51.0%
49.0%
+178
-195
+177
-190
+1½-117
-1½+100
+1½-118
-1½+105
4
7
-0.43448-0.43891-0.71429
Texas Rangers
Arizona Diamondbacks
45.9%
54.1%
+145
-158
+147
-152
+1½-147
-1½+130
+1½-150
-1½+132
4
14
-0.51073-0.51355-0.61502
New York Mets
Toronto Blue Jays
43.3%
56.7%
-129
+119
-128
+120
-1½+131
+1½-150
-1½+132
+1½-150
6
2
-0.59365-0.59314-0.83785
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
39.5%
60.5%
-224
+201
-220
+202
-1½-145
+1½+129
-1½-140
+1½+130
6
4
-0.39241-0.39315-0.92811
Miami Marlins
Pittsburgh Pirates
52.7%
47.3%
+130
-142
+138
-143
+1½-150
-1½+139
+1½-150
-1½+135
1
3
-0.55443-0.53883-0.74864
Chicago Cubs
Los Angeles Dodgers
33.3%
66.7%
+134
-146
+139
-146
+1½-157
-1½+145
+1½-160
-1½+145
6
3
-0.87079-0.88312-1.09850
Milwaukee Brewers
San Francisco Giants
48.0%
52.0%
-109
-101
-106
+100
-1½+147
+1½-167
-1½+150
+1½-155
3
2
-0.67472-0.67889-0.73364
San Diego Padres
Seattle Mariners
58.2%
41.8%
+110
-120
+113
-119
+1½-210
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+180
7
3
-0.76336-0.76891-0.54123
Texas Rangers
Arizona Diamondbacks
42.4%
57.6%
+166
-179
+160
-165
+1½-133
-1½+120
+1½-135
-1½+117
0
6
-0.46119-0.48102-0.55156
Oakland Athletics
Houston Astros
43.6%
56.4%
+176
-193
+181
-190
+1½-118
-1½+100
+1½-120
-1½+105
4
3
-1.03603-1.04418-0.83000
Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
49.6%
50.4%
+120
-130
+120
-122
+1½-180
-1½+160
+1½-180
-1½+163
3
0
-0.80802-0.79255-0.70197
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
39.5%
60.5%
-213
+192
-230
+208
-1½-132
+1½+115
-1½-135
+1½+120
5
0
-0.40764-0.38243-0.92811
Los Angeles Angels
Minnesota Twins
49.0%
51.0%
+230
-260
+225
-250
+1½+108
-1½-125
+1½+105
-1½-118
5
10
-0.35037-0.35820-0.67364
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.59205 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.59154 
DRatings127-5 (0.583)0-0.69487
-0.10282
-0.10333

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.