MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Trevor Williams
Jameson Taillon
47.7%
52.3%
+148
-162
+153
-160
+1½-134
-1½+120
+1½-135
-1½+117
4.92
5.17
10.09
o9-125
u9½-110
o9-120
u9+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Mitch Keller
Nick Martinez
35.1%
64.9%
+110
-120
+107
-115
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-190
-1½+170
3.86
5.42
9.28
o9-105
u9-115
o9-105
u9-115
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Jose Berrios
Tyler Alexander
46.1%
53.9%
-103
-107
+100
-108
+1½-212
-1½+185

4.30
4.71
9.01
o8+100
u7½+100
o7½-115
u7½+100
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Keider Montero
Corbin Burnes
46.5%
53.5%
+147
-160
+155
-160
+1½-145
-1½+132
+1½-145
-1½+130
4.28
4.65
8.93
o8+100
u7½+105
o7½-115
u7½-105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
New York Mets (60-60)
Cristopher Sanchez
David Peterson
47.3%
52.7%
+100
-110
+102
-106
+1½-225
-1½+195
+1½-220
-1½+197
4.15
4.44
8.59
o7½+102
u7½-120
o7½+100
u7½-120
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Charlie Morton
Valente Bellozo
48.4%
51.6%
-198
+180
-199
+181
-1½-125
+1½+105
-1½-120
+1½+105
4.27
4.44
8.71
o9+100
u8½+100
o8½-120
u8½+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
David Festa
Richard Fitts
41.5%
58.5%
-110
+100
-112
+103
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-160
4.56
5.45
10.01
o9+103
u8½+100
o8½-115
u8½+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Texas Rangers (42-78)
George Kirby
Jacob deGrom
52.2%
47.8%
+107
-117
+108
-114
+1½-205
-1½+185
+1½-204
-1½+180
5.39
5.17
10.56
o7-104
u7-105
o7-105
u7-105
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Zac Gallen
Colin Rea
39.0%
61.0%
-120
+110
-120
+110
-1½+135
+1½-155
-1½+140
+1½-156
3.31
4.46
7.77
o8-110
u8-105
o8-105
u8-115
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Tyler Anderson
Justin Verlander
32.3%
67.7%
+218
-245
+227
-254
+1½+100
-1½-120
+1½+102
-1½-115
3.01
4.82
7.83
o8-105
u8-110
o7½-120
u7½+100
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Mason Black
Michael Wacha
57.3%
42.7%
+143
-156
+146
-154
+1½-140
-1½+125
+1½-145
-1½+131
4.62
3.86
8.48
o8½-115
u8½-105
o8½-115
u8½-105
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Ben Lively
Kyle Gibson
49.0%
51.0%
+101
-111
+100
-110
+1½-210
-1½+180
+1½-211
-1½+185
4.47
4.58
9.05
o8-120
u8½-115
o8-115
u8-105
New York Yankees (69-52)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Gerrit Cole
J.T. Ginn
53.5%
46.5%
-186
+170
-190
+175
-1½-110
+1½+100
-1½-117
+1½+100
4.60
4.24
8.84
o7½-122
u8-110
o8-110
u8-105
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Garrett Crochet
Joe Musgrove
46.4%
53.6%
+218
-245
+215
-234
+1½-105
-1½-115
+1½-105
-1½-103
4.27
4.65
8.92
o7+102
u7-120
o7+105
u7-120
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Kyle Freeland
Undecided Undecided
33.0%
67.0%
+205
-250
+210
-240
+1½+100
-1½-120
+1½+105
-1½-125
4.26
6.02
10.28
o9-115
u9-105
o9½+100
u9½-120
Games for Sep 19, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
34.2%
65.8%
+122
-133
+124
-132
+1½-170
-1½+155
+1½-170
-1½+168
5
3
-0.81855-0.82175-1.07283
New York Mets
Toronto Blue Jays
42.6%
57.4%
-124
+114
-125
+115
-1½+131
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-145
2
6
-0.78145-0.78592-0.55483
Kansas City Royals
New York Yankees
36.4%
63.6%
+124
-135
+130
-137
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-156
-1½+140
5
0
-0.82716-0.84567-1.01013
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
49.0%
51.0%
-135
+124
-135
+129
-1½+120
+1½-140
-1½+122
+1½-140
12
0
-0.57499-0.56539-0.71408
Tampa Bay Rays
Philadelphia Phillies
51.0%
49.0%
+158
-173
+165
-175
+1½-135
-1½+117
+1½-140
-1½+125
4
9
-0.47726-0.46561-0.71325
Colorado Rockies
Detroit Tigers
49.5%
50.5%
+179
-197
+181
-190
+1½-121
-1½+110
+1½-120
-1½+105
0
11
-0.43201-0.43383-0.68322
Miami Marlins
Pittsburgh Pirates
52.7%
47.3%
+144
-157
+150
-158
+1½-149
-1½+130
+1½-140
-1½+130
4
6
-0.51336-0.50269-0.74864
Chicago Cubs
Los Angeles Dodgers
36.0%
64.0%
+169
-185
+172
-180
+1½-115
-1½-102
+1½-115
-1½+105
10
4
-1.01019-1.01107-1.02276
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
39.5%
60.5%
-193
+176
-195
+185
-1½-120
+1½+105
-1½-125
+1½+115
5
3
-0.43829-0.42580-0.92811
Los Angeles Angels
Minnesota Twins
48.4%
51.6%
+150
-164
+155
-164
+1½-140
-1½+122
+1½-140
-1½+127
6
2
-0.93728-0.94936-0.72617
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
34.2%
65.8%
+108
-118
+110
-117
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-175
-1½+165
3
12
-0.63563-0.63297-0.41861
New York Mets
Toronto Blue Jays
40.2%
59.8%
-127
+117
-127
+120
-1½+125
+1½-144
-1½+127
+1½-140
3
2
-0.60086-0.59470-0.91150
Kansas City Royals
New York Yankees
38.7%
61.3%
+162
-177
+163
-175
+1½-130
-1½+112
+1½-130
-1½+115
4
10
-0.46833-0.46844-0.48968
Tampa Bay Rays
Philadelphia Phillies
51.0%
49.0%
+169
-185
+181
-185
+1½-110
-1½-105
+1½-115
-1½+100
1
2
-0.45279-0.43711-0.71325
Cincinnati Reds
Atlanta Braves
44.6%
55.4%
+134
-146
+137
-147
+1½-160
-1½+140
+1½-150
-1½+136
1
0
-0.87079-0.87984-0.80802
Miami Marlins
Pittsburgh Pirates
52.7%
47.3%
+229
-259
+230
-255
+1½+105
-1½-121
+1½+115
-1½-125
2
3
-0.35157-0.35197-0.74864
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.59205 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.59154 
DRatings127-5 (0.583)0-0.69487
-0.10282
-0.10333

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.