MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 27, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Garrett Crochet
Brenan Hanifee
57.8%
42.2%
+180
-193
+172
-175
+1½-122
-1½+110
+1½-125
-1½+118
4.96
4.14
9.10
o7-110
u7½-120
o7-115
u7+100
Overall Bet Value Active
All Bet Values Active
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Ranger Suarez
Trevor Williams
50.7%
49.3%
-172
+159
-174
+165
-1½-110
+1½-105
-1½-105
+1½-110
4.80
4.73
9.53
o8-120
u8+100
o8-120
u8+100
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
New York Yankees (69-52)
Jared Jones
Carlos Rodon
32.4%
67.6%
+143
-156
+142
-152
+1½-145
-1½+130
+1½-150
-1½+131
3.80
5.62
9.42
o7½-114
u7½-105
o7½-105
u7½-110
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Adam Oller
Jose Berrios
38.7%
61.3%
+191
-212
+195
-210
+1½-105
-1½-112
+1½-112
-1½-105
4.06
5.25
9.31
o8½+100
u8+102
o8-110
u8-105
Houston Astros (70-50)
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
Ronel Blanco
Joey Cantillo
55.9%
44.1%
+106
-116
+108
-116
+1½-197
-1½+175
+1½-200
-1½+176
4.50
3.87
8.37
o7½-115
u7½+100
o8-105
u8-115
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Taj Bradley
Nick Pivetta
54.9%
45.1%
+115
-117
+112
-118
+1½-185
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+170
5.41
4.90
10.31
o8-105
u8+100
o8-110
u8-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Brady Singer
Max Fried
33.3%
66.7%
+163
-178
+161
-170
+1½-133
-1½+120
+1½-135
-1½+120
2.82
4.54
7.36
o7-122
u7½-120
o7½+105
u7½-115
New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Sean Manaea
Frankie Montas
42.9%
57.1%
-113
+103
-104
+102
-1½+147
+1½-167
-1½+155
+1½-165
3.92
4.66
8.58
o7½-110
u7½-110
o7½-115
u7½-105
Overall Bet Value Active
All Bet Values Active
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Ryan Brasier
Cal Quantrill
60.8%
39.2%
-165
+151
-168
+155
-1½-117
+1½+100
-1½-118
+1½+105
5.65
4.51
10.16
o11-110
u11-105
o11-115
u11½-120
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Cade Povich
Pablo Lopez
39.2%
60.8%
+141
-154
+146
-152
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-150
-1½+141
4.80
5.93
10.73
o8-110
u8-110
o8-110
u8-110
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Jacob deGrom
Reid Detmers
39.3%
60.7%
-146
+134
-142
+133
-1½+110
+1½-130
-1½+117
+1½-130
4.91
6.03
10.94
o7-120
u7½-120
o7½+100
u7½-120
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Yu Darvish
Merrill Kelly
62.6%
37.4%
+111
-121
+110
-120
+1½-180
-1½+165
+1½-180
-1½+160
4.44
3.14
7.58
o8½-117
u8½+100
o8½-115
u8½+100
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
JP Sears
Bryan Woo
52.8%
47.2%
+147
-160
+147
-155
+1½-155
-1½+135
+1½-155
-1½+136
4.79
4.50
9.29
o7½+105
u7+100
o7½+100
u7½-115
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Miles Mikolas
Landen Roupp
40.0%
60.0%
+115
-125
+116
-118
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-185
-1½+175
3.65
4.71
8.36
o7-122
u7+105
o7½+100
u7½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Sep 26, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
St. Louis Cardinals
Miami Marlins
45.7%
54.3%
-147
+135
-143
+137
-1½+107
+1½-125
-1½+110
+1½-124
3
4
-0.87488-0.87326-0.61031
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
58.9%
41.1%
+112
-122
+120
-123
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-185
-1½+170
0
1
-0.61967-0.60110-0.88858
Detroit Tigers
Atlanta Braves
39.7%
60.3%
+114
-124
+118
-125
+1½-181
-1½+161
+1½-190
-1½+172
0
7
-0.61201-0.60195-0.50541
Kansas City Royals
Oakland Athletics
38.4%
61.6%
-127
+117
-124
+119
-1½+135
+1½-151
-1½+140
+1½-145
5
7
-0.79483-0.79405-0.48388
Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Angels
51.0%
49.0%
-141
+130
-134
+135
-1½+115
+1½-125
-1½+110
+1½-118
6
3
-0.55568-0.55567-0.67315
Los Angeles Dodgers
Colorado Rockies
60.6%
39.4%
-188
+172
-186
+175
-1½-130
+1½+110
-1½-128
+1½+110
11
9
-0.44674-0.44413-0.50101
Houston Astros
Chicago White Sox
48.4%
51.6%
-170
+156
-168
+160
-1½-115
+1½-104
-1½-115
+1½+100
0
2
-0.96006-0.96693-0.66163
New York Mets
Texas Rangers
55.4%
44.6%
-125
+115
-123
+116
-1½+135
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-150
7
6
-0.60825-0.60941-0.59079
San Francisco Giants
Chicago Cubs
54.1%
45.9%
+101
-111
+106
-107


2
5
-0.66563-0.66223-0.77818
Tampa Bay Rays
Minnesota Twins
55.8%
44.2%
+166
-182
+170
-180
+1½-128
-1½+115
+1½-125
-1½+110
6
7
-0.45901-0.45497-0.81633
Detroit Tigers
Atlanta Braves
35.9%
64.1%
+148
-162
+146
-155
+1½-145
-1½+125
+1½-140
-1½+125
1
2
-0.50206-0.51208-0.44530
Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
46.7%
53.3%
-130
+121
-124
+123
-1½+140
+1½-153
-1½+135
+1½-150
4
3
-0.58810-0.59336-0.76205
Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
32.4%
67.6%
+124
-135
+128
-134
+1½-168
-1½+148
+1½-159
-1½+140
2
4
-0.57499-0.56867-0.39190
Arizona Diamondbacks
Washington Nationals
41.1%
58.9%
+109
-119
+117
-118
+1½-185
-1½+165
+1½-180
-1½+165
5
0
-0.75877-0.77683-0.88821
Seattle Mariners
Cleveland Indians
50.3%
49.7%
+123
-134
+126
-128
+1½-174
-1½+155
+1½-165
-1½+160
8
5
-0.82287-0.81923-0.68619
San Diego Padres
Philadelphia Phillies
42.6%
57.4%
+143
-155
+151
-152
+1½-140
-1½+122
+1½-135
-1½+120
3
4
-0.51701-0.50713-0.55488
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks42-2 (0.500)0-0.76541 
Sportsbooks42-2 (0.500)0-0.75437 
DRatings42-2 (0.500)0-0.60948
0.15593
0.14489

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.