MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 27, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Brady Singer
Max Fried
33.3%
66.7%
+169
-182
+165
-175
+1½-130
-1½+120
+1½-135
-1½+120
2.82
4.54
7.36
o7-122
u7½-120
o7½+105
u7½-120
Overall Bet Value Active
New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Sean Manaea
Frankie Montas
42.9%
57.1%
-110
+100
-110
+102
-1½+147
+1½-167
-1½+150
+1½-165
3.92
4.66
8.58
o7½-110
u7½-110
o7½-115
u7½-105
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Ryan Brasier
Cal Quantrill
60.8%
39.2%
-162
+149
-165
+155
-1½-117
+1½+100
-1½-118
+1½+105
5.65
4.51
10.16
o11-110
u11-105
o11-110
u11½-120
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Cade Povich
Pablo Lopez
39.2%
60.8%
+133
-140
+133
-141
+1½-150
-1½+146
+1½-150
-1½+145
4.80
5.93
10.73
o8-110
u8-110
o8-110
u8-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Jacob deGrom
Reid Detmers
39.3%
60.7%
-153
+140
-142
+137
-1½+110
+1½-125
-1½+115
+1½-128
4.91
6.03
10.94
o7-120
u7½-120
o7½+100
u7½-120
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Yu Darvish
Merrill Kelly
62.6%
37.4%
+117
-125
+122
-127
+1½-175
-1½+165
+1½-175
-1½+160
4.44
3.14
7.58
o9-105
u8½+100
o9-105
u8½+105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
JP Sears
Bryan Woo
52.8%
47.2%
+148
-162
+147
-155
+1½-155
-1½+135
+1½-152
-1½+135
4.79
4.50
9.29
o7½+105
u7+100
o7-120
u7½-115
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Miles Mikolas
Landen Roupp
40.0%
60.0%
+120
-130
+119
-126
+1½-183
-1½+170
+1½-185
-1½+170
3.63
4.69
8.32
o7-123
u7+105
o7-120
u7½-115
Games for Sep 26, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
57.8%
42.2%
+183
-193
+181
-190
+1½-120
-1½+110
+1½-118
-1½+110
9.10
o7-110
u7½-120
o7-110
u7+100
3rd
BOT
0
0
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
Washington Nationals (52-68)
50.7%
49.3%
-173
+159
-174
+160
-1½-113
+1½-105
-1½-105
+1½-110
9.53
o8-120
u8+105
o8-120
u8+100
2nd
TOP
0
4
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
New York Yankees (69-52)
32.4%
67.6%
+148
-162
+142
-152
+1½-144
-1½+125
+1½-146
-1½+130
9.42
o7½-110
u7½-105
o7½-110
u7½+100
1st
TOP
0
0
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
38.7%
61.3%
+198
-220
+199
-210
+1½-103
-1½-115
+1½-110
-1½-105
9.31
o8½+100
u8+102
o8-110
u8-105
1st
TOP
3
0
Houston Astros (70-50)
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
55.9%
44.1%
+106
-116
+108
-118
+1½-197
-1½+175
+1½-192
-1½+175
8.37
o7½-115
u8½-107
o8-115
u8½-110
1st
TOP
0
0
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
54.9%
45.1%
+115
-114
+112
-114
+1½-185
-1½+172
+1½-190
-1½+175
10.45
o8-105
u8+100
o8-110
u8-110
1st
TOP
0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
57.6%
42.4%
-121
+111
-117
+114
-1½+131
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-148
2
1
-0.62358-0.62416-0.55229
St. Louis Cardinals
Miami Marlins
49.0%
51.0%
-128
+118
-126
+120
-1½+128
+1½-145
-1½+130
+1½-140
8
9
-0.79924-0.80044-0.67303
Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Angels
51.6%
48.4%
-131
+121
-122
+120
-1½+125
+1½-140
-1½+135
+1½-145
3
5
-0.81238-0.79255-0.72668
Los Angeles Dodgers
Colorado Rockies
60.8%
39.2%
-160
+147
-155
+151
-1½-110
+1½-105
-1½-102
+1½+100
9
5
-0.50556-0.50408-0.49768
New York Mets
Texas Rangers
55.4%
44.6%
+124
-135
+125
-130
+1½-175
-1½+158
+1½-180
-1½+160
14
2
-0.82716-0.82055-0.59124
San Francisco Giants
Chicago Cubs
55.7%
44.3%
+101
-111
+100
-109
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-200
-1½+176
7
6
-0.72144-0.71445-0.58453
Detroit Tigers
Atlanta Braves
30.1%
69.9%
+178
-195
+193
-200
+1½-110
-1½-105
+1½-109
-1½-105
1
2
-0.43448-0.41340-0.35872
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
57.6%
42.4%
+161
-176
+165
-170
+1½-130
-1½+115
+1½-133
-1½+115
1
4
-0.47053-0.46959-0.85715
Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
40.6%
59.4%
+107
-117
+113
-117
+1½-195
-1½+175
+1½-200
-1½+176
7
3
-0.74957-0.76475-0.90214
St. Louis Cardinals
Miami Marlins
49.0%
51.0%
-147
+135
-148
+142
-1½+115
+1½-130
-1½+115
+1½-120
7
6
-0.53941-0.52616-0.71368
San Diego Padres
Philadelphia Phillies
50.8%
49.2%
+175
-192
+176
-190
+1½-109
-1½-110
+1½-105
-1½-103
2
9
-0.44021-0.44020-0.70970
Oakland Athletics
Minnesota Twins
53.0%
47.0%
+178
-195
+185
-200
+1½-120
-1½+100
+1½-110
-1½+100
7
8
-0.43448-0.42286-0.75472
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
48.8%
51.2%
-137
+126
-137
+132
-1½+100
+1½-118
-1½+105
+1½-120
3
9
-0.83570-0.85062-0.66978
Kansas City Royals
Los Angeles Dodgers
33.5%
66.5%
+231
-262
+235
-245
+1½+115
-1½-133
+1½+112
-1½-130
0
3
-0.34883-0.35091-0.40810
Chicago White Sox
Arizona Diamondbacks
61.5%
38.5%
+159
-174
+159
-170
+1½-130
-1½+110
+1½-133
-1½+120
5
12
-0.47499-0.47823-0.95514
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
41.5%
58.5%
+130
-142
+134
-138
+1½-173
-1½+155
+1½-175
-1½+160
0
5
-0.55443-0.55217-0.53556
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.85402 
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.83713 
DRatings31-2 (0.333)0-0.68893
0.16509
0.14819

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.