MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 28, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
New York Yankees (69-52)
Paul Skenes
Luis Gil
32.4%
67.6%
+124
-135
+118
-124
+1½-175
-1½+155
+1½-190
-1½+170
3.56
5.37
8.93
o7½+103
u7½-123
o7½+100
u7½-120
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Sean Burke
Undecided Undecided
57.8%
42.2%




4.96
4.14
9.10


Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Rhett Lowder
Kyle Hendricks
48.9%
51.1%
+118
-128
+115
-120

+1½-197
-1½+175
3.85
3.96
7.81

o6½-120
u6½+100
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Xzavion Curry
Yariel Rodriguez
38.3%
61.7%




4.02
5.24
9.26


Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Zack Wheeler
MacKenzie Gore
50.7%
49.3%
-205
+186
-205
+190
-1½-118
+1½-102
-1½-120
+1½+102
4.85
4.78
9.63
o7½-112
u7½-108
o7½-115
u7½-105
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Andre Pallante
Blake Snell
40.0%
60.0%




3.67
4.73
8.40


Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Shane Baz
Kutter Crawford
48.5%
51.5%
+110
-120
+113
-120
+1½-200
-1½+175
+1½-195
-1½+175
4.42
4.58
9.00
o8-102
u8-118
o8+100
u8-120
Houston Astros (70-50)
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
Justin Verlander
Ben Lively
63.9%
36.1%
+105
-115
+105
-115
+1½-210
-1½+180
+1½-197
-1½+180
4.32
2.86
7.18
o8-123
u8+103
o8-105
u8-115
New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Jose Quintana
Jared Koenig
42.9%
57.1%




4.01
4.75
8.76


Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
UNDEDICED Undecided
Zebby Matthews
39.2%
60.8%




4.81
5.95
10.76


Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Seth Lugo
Reynaldo Lopez
42.3%
57.7%




4.43
5.23
9.66


San Diego Padres (67-56)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Undecided Undecided
Eduardo Rodriguez
60.3%
39.7%




4.67
3.60
8.27


Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Antonio Senzatela
59.7%
40.3%
-265
+234
-265
+235
-1½-165
+1½+145
-1½-165
+1½+146
6.12
5.11
11.23
o10½-128
u10½+108
o10½-125
u11-115
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Andrew Heaney
Griffin Canning
40.5%
59.5%
-140
+129
-140
+130
-1½+115
+1½-135
-1½+115
+1½-133
4.70
5.70
10.40
o8½-110
u8½-110
o8½-105
u8½-115
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Joey Estes
Emerson Hancock
52.8%
47.2%




4.98
4.68
9.66


Games for Sep 27, 2024
Games for Sep 29, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Atlanta Braves
Baltimore Orioles
55.8%
44.2%
-102
-108
+100
-104
+1½-195
-1½+172
+1½-200
-1½+180
6
3
-0.70719-0.70289-0.58332
Texas Rangers
Los Angeles Dodgers
29.8%
70.2%
+147
-160
+151
-160
+1½-137
-1½+120
+1½-135
-1½+125
3
2
-0.92425-0.93397-1.20986
Los Angeles Angels
Arizona Diamondbacks
55.1%
44.9%
+137
-149
+138
-145
+1½-157
-1½+140
+1½-155
-1½+140
8
3
-0.88303-0.87904-0.59660
Chicago White Sox
Seattle Mariners
54.0%
46.0%
+218
-245
+227
-244
+1½+102
-1½-120
+1½+105
-1½-120
1
2
-0.36661-0.35848-0.77609
New York Yankees
Kansas City Royals
57.5%
42.5%
-156
+143
-159
+155
-1½-115
+1½-103
-1½-115
+1½+105
11
5
-0.51601-0.49397-0.55339
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
37.7%
62.3%
+156
-170
+158
-170
+1½-140
-1½+121
+1½-140
-1½+125
2
4
-0.48268-0.47970-0.47260
Cleveland Indians
Cincinnati Reds
43.0%
57.0%
-105
-105
+100
-106
+1½-225
-1½+195
+1½-210
-1½+190
2
4
-0.69315-0.67889-0.56198
Philadelphia Phillies
Boston Red Sox
50.7%
49.3%
-120
+110
-117
+110
-1½+135
+1½-150
-1½+141
+1½-150
6
8
-0.76336-0.75717-0.70747
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
42.4%
57.6%
+147
-160
+148
-154
+1½-155
-1½+135
+1½-160
-1½+142
4
10
-0.50556-0.50986-0.55187
Chicago Cubs
Tampa Bay Rays
36.3%
63.7%
+102
-112
+103
-108
+1½-213
-1½+183
+1½-215
-1½+192
4
3
-0.72619-0.71980-1.01250
Washington Nationals
Detroit Tigers
50.4%
49.6%
+107
-117
+108
-116
+1½-200
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+180
7
5
-0.74957-0.75001-0.68508
Atlanta Braves
Baltimore Orioles
59.7%
40.3%
+106
-116
+106
-112
+1½-190
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+176
2
4
-0.64392-0.65174-0.90837
Oakland Athletics
San Diego Padres
48.0%
52.0%
+199
-222
+197
-210
+1½-118
-1½+100
+1½-114
-1½-104
4
5
-0.39549-0.40348-0.65368
Houston Astros
San Francisco Giants
49.7%
50.3%
+104
-114
+107
-112
+1½-220
-1½+195
+1½-200
-1½+188
3
5
-0.65243-0.64942-0.68740
Toronto Blue Jays
Milwaukee Brewers
47.2%
52.8%
+112
-122
+115
-120
+1½-181
-1½+165
+1½-190
-1½+170
4
5
-0.61967-0.61667-0.63798
Colorado Rockies
Minnesota Twins
45.0%
55.0%
+213
-239
+210
-228
+1½+107
-1½-120
+1½+100
-1½-114
9
17
-0.37375-0.38122-0.59753
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks156-9 (0.400)0-0.71342 
Sportsbooks156-9 (0.400)0-0.71451 
DRatings156-9 (0.400)0-0.73488
-0.02146
-0.02037

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.