MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 28, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedChicago White Sox (71-50)
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Sean Burke
Beau Brieske
57.8%
42.2%
+188
-208
+197
-205
+1½-110
-1½-110
+1½-113
-1½+100
4.96
4.14
9.10
o7½-108
u7½-112
o7½+100
u7½-115
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Rhett Lowder
Kyle Hendricks
48.9%
51.1%
+115
-125
+115
-120
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-195
-1½+180
3.88
4.00
7.88
o7-115
u7-105
o7-110
u7+100
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Xzavion Curry
Yariel Rodriguez
38.3%
61.7%
+151
-165
+150
-159
+1½-140
-1½+120
+1½-145
-1½+130
4.02
5.24
9.26
o8½-112
u8½-108
o8½-110
u8½+100
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Zack Wheeler
MacKenzie Gore
50.7%
49.3%
-192
+175
-199
+181
-1½-118
+1½-102
-1½-115
+1½-102
4.85
4.78
9.63
o7½-112
u7½-108
o7½-110
u7½-105
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Andre Pallante
Tristan Beck
40.0%
60.0%
+107
-117
+107
-115
+1½-198
-1½+173
+1½-204
-1½+180
3.70
4.75
8.45
o7½-105
u7½-115
o7½+100
u7½-120
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Shane Baz
Kutter Crawford
48.5%
51.5%
+107
-117
+110
-115
+1½-205
-1½+175
+1½-200
-1½+182
4.42
4.58
9.00
o7½-113
u7½-107
o7½-110
u7½-110
Houston Astros (70-50)
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
Justin Verlander
Ben Lively
63.9%
36.1%
+107
-117
+110
-115
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-192
-1½+175
4.32
2.86
7.18
o8-123
u8+103
o8-120
u8½-115
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Jose Quintana
Jared Koenig
42.9%
57.1%
-109
-101
-105
+103
-1½+145
+1½-165
+1½-220
-1½+200
4.01
4.75
8.76
o8½-105
u8½-115
o8½-105
u8½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
UNDEDICED Undecided
Zebby Matthews
39.2%
60.8%

+105
-114

+1½-192
-1½+175
4.76
5.90
10.66

o9-105
u9-110
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Seth Lugo
Reynaldo Lopez
42.3%
57.7%
+179
-197
+181
-190
+1½-123
-1½+103
+1½-120
-1½+110
4.43
5.23
9.66
o7½-120
u7½+100
o7½-120
u7½+100
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Randy Vasquez
Eduardo Rodriguez
60.3%
39.7%
+161
-176
+160
-174
+1½-127
-1½+107
+1½-128
-1½+110
4.67
3.60
8.27
o9½-103
u9½-117
o9-120
u9+100
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Antonio Senzatela
59.7%
40.3%
-230
+206
-220
+220
-1½-157
+1½+137
-1½-148
+1½+140
5.98
4.97
10.95
o10½-120
u10½+100
o11-105
u11-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Andrew Heaney
Griffin Canning
40.5%
59.5%
-139
+128
-140
+130
-1½+112
+1½-132
-1½+115
+1½-133
4.70
5.70
10.40
o8-114
u8-106
o8-110
u8-105
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Joey Estes
Emerson Hancock
52.8%
47.2%
+122
-133
+130
-137
+1½-175
-1½+155
+1½-175
-1½+160
4.93
4.64
9.57
o7½-114
u7½-106
o7½+100
u7½-110
Games for Sep 27, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
New York Yankees (69-52)
32.4%
67.6%
+118
-128
+122
-128
+1½-192
-1½+167
+1½-185
-1½+170
8.93
o6½-125
u6½+105
o6½-110
u6½+100
2nd
TOP
0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
San Francisco Giants
Texas Rangers
58.1%
41.9%
+107
-117
+112
-112
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+180
3
1
-0.74957-0.75141-0.54251
Minnesota Twins
Pittsburgh Pirates
54.7%
45.3%
-124
+114
-122
+114
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+135
+1½-148
0
4
-0.78145-0.77751-0.79149
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
52.9%
47.1%
-124
+114
-122
+120
-1½+130
+1½-148
-1½+135
+1½-150
3
7
-0.78145-0.79255-0.75366
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets
49.7%
50.3%
-153
+140
-152
+143
-1½-105
+1½-105
-1½-104
+1½-105
7
2
-0.52415-0.52014-0.69826
Toronto Blue Jays
Oakland Athletics
48.3%
51.7%
-170
+156
-165
+153
-1½-105
+1½-114
-1½+110
+1½-118
1
2
-0.96006-0.94595-0.65921
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
36.3%
63.7%
+121
-132
+124
-130
+1½-183
-1½+165
+1½-180
-1½+175
3
10
-0.58515-0.58212-0.45168
Houston Astros
Los Angeles Angels
52.9%
47.1%
-153
+140
-151
+144
-1½+105
+1½-125
-1½+107
+1½-125
7
1
-0.52415-0.51955-0.63584
Colorado Rockies
St. Louis Cardinals
44.8%
55.2%
+163
-178
+170
-180
+1½-134
-1½+120
+1½-128
-1½+115
5
8
-0.46614-0.45497-0.59437
Seattle Mariners
Kansas City Royals
49.5%
50.5%
-116
+106
-116
+108
-1½+130
+1½-150
-1½+140
+1½-150
9
10
-0.74492-0.75001-0.68349
Boston Red Sox
Chicago White Sox
45.7%
54.3%
-102
-108
-103
+102
+1½-208
-1½+190
+1½-215
-1½+190
2
7
-0.67930-0.70552-0.61037
San Francisco Giants
Texas Rangers
58.3%
41.7%
-116
+106
-115
+110
-1½+145
+1½-160
-1½+150
+1½-160
5
2
-0.64392-0.63673-0.53979
Cleveland Indians
Miami Marlins
47.9%
52.1%
-107
-103
-106
+100
-1½+155
+1½-174
-1½+160
+1½-170
2
3
-0.70249-0.70761-0.65135
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
42.1%
57.9%
+122
-133
+121
-128
+1½-167
-1½+150
+1½-165
-1½+160
2
3
-0.58173-0.59111-0.54688
Los Angeles Dodgers
New York Yankees
53.4%
46.6%
-153
+140
-143
+143
-1½+105
+1½-124
-1½+115
+1½-125
2
1
-0.52415-0.53021-0.62828
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays
31.0%
69.0%
-107
-103
-105
+100
-1½+150
+1½-168
-1½+155
+1½-165
6
3
-0.68389-0.68116-1.17122
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
52.9%
47.1%
-205
+186
-200
+190
-1½-130
+1½+110
-1½-125
+1½+120
1
2
-1.07236-1.07614-0.75366
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks156-9 (0.400)0-0.71342 
Sportsbooks156-9 (0.400)0-0.71451 
DRatings156-9 (0.400)0-0.73488
-0.02146
-0.02037

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.