MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 28, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedChicago White Sox (71-50)
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Sean Burke
Beau Brieske
57.8%
42.2%
+188
-208
+197
-205
+1½-110
-1½-110
+1½-113
-1½+100
4.96
4.14
9.10
o7½-108
u7½-112
o7½+100
u7½-115
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Zack Wheeler
MacKenzie Gore
50.7%
49.3%
-195
+178
-199
+181
-1½-121
+1½+101
-1½-115
+1½+100
4.87
4.79
9.66
o8-110
u8-110
o8+100
u8-115
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Andre Pallante
Tristan Beck
40.0%
60.0%
+111
-121
+112
-119
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+178
3.70
4.75
8.45
o7½+100
u7½-120
o7½+100
u7½-120
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Shane Baz
Kutter Crawford
48.5%
51.5%
+104
-114
+106
-112
+1½-205
-1½+175
+1½-200
-1½+184
4.42
4.58
9.00
o7½-111
u7½-109
o7½-110
u7½-110
Houston Astros (70-50)
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
Justin Verlander
Ben Lively
63.9%
36.1%
+122
-133
+134
-135
+1½-175
-1½+155
+1½-165
-1½+155
4.32
2.86
7.18
o8-110
u8-110
o8-110
u8-110
Overall Bet Value Active
All Bet Values Active
New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Jose Quintana
Jared Koenig
42.9%
57.1%
-110
+100
-105
+103
-1½+145
+1½-165
+1½-220
-1½+200
4.01
4.75
8.76
o8½-105
u8½-115
o8½-105
u8½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Matt Bowman
Zebby Matthews
39.2%
60.8%
+101
-111
+110
-114
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+175
4.81
5.95
10.76
o8½-115
u8½-105
o8½-120
u8½+100
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Seth Lugo
Reynaldo Lopez
42.3%
57.7%
+179
-197
+185
-190
+1½-123
-1½+103
+1½-120
-1½+110
4.43
5.23
9.66
o7½-120
u7½+100
o7½-115
u7½+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Randy Vasquez
Eduardo Rodriguez
60.3%
39.7%
+161
-176
+160
-174
+1½-127
-1½+107
+1½-126
-1½+110
4.67
3.60
8.27
o9½-103
u9½-117
o9-120
u9½-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Antonio Senzatela
59.7%
40.3%
-230
+206
-220
+220
-1½-157
+1½+137
-1½-148
+1½+140
6.05
5.04
11.09
o11+100
u11-120
o11-105
u11-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Andrew Heaney
Griffin Canning
40.5%
59.5%
-137
+126
-132
+130
-1½+112
+1½-132
-1½+122
+1½-135
4.70
5.70
10.40
o8-114
u8-106
o8-110
u8-105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Joey Estes
Emerson Hancock
52.8%
47.2%
+122
-133
+130
-137
+1½-175
-1½+155
+1½-175
-1½+160
4.98
4.68
9.66
o7½-114
u7½-106
o7½+100
u7½-110
Games for Sep 27, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
New York Yankees (69-52)
32.4%
67.6%
+118
-128
+122
-128
+1½-192
-1½+167
+1½-185
-1½+170
8.93
o6½-125
u6½+105
o6½-110
u6½+100
8th
TOP
6
3
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
48.9%
51.1%
+114
-124
+122
-124
+1½-192
-1½+167
+1½-195
-1½+180
7.88
o7-120
u7+100
o7-110
u7+100
4th
BOT
0
0
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
38.3%
61.7%
+151
-165
+158
-159
+1½-140
-1½+120
+1½-134
-1½+125
9.26
o8½-120
u8½+100
o9-105
u8½+100
1st
TOP
1
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Milwaukee Brewers
Detroit Tigers
57.7%
42.3%
+100
-110
+100
-108
+1½-200
-1½+175
+1½-190
-1½+175
10
0
-0.71668-0.71219-0.55016
Minnesota Twins
Pittsburgh Pirates
56.0%
44.0%
-122
+112
-121
+114
-1½+135
+1½-153
-1½+144
+1½-150
0
3
-0.77245-0.77551-0.82137
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
33.8%
66.2%
-103
-107
+105
-104
+1½-210
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+185
4
3
-0.70249-0.71545-1.08480
Boston Red Sox
Chicago White Sox
46.9%
53.1%
-230
+206
-230
+215
-1½-149
+1½+130
-1½-140
+1½+130
14
2
-0.38450-0.37533-0.75670
Colorado Rockies
St. Louis Cardinals
44.8%
55.2%
+195
-217
+198
-220
+1½-105
-1½-110
+1½-110
-1½-105
3
2
-1.10506-1.11474-0.80276
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
42.1%
57.9%
+115
-125
+116
-120
+1½-174
-1½+155
+1½-170
-1½+160
4
8
-0.60825-0.61452-0.54688
Minnesota Twins
New York Yankees
39.6%
60.4%
+132
-144
+138
-143
+1½-150
-1½+133
+1½-150
-1½+135
5
8
-0.54834-0.53883-0.50421
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
49.0%
51.0%
-153
+140
-148
+141
-1½+107
+1½-125
-1½+110
+1½-120
5
2
-0.52415-0.52787-0.71408
Los Angeles Dodgers
Pittsburgh Pirates
66.2%
33.8%
-170
+156
-170
+158
-1½-110
+1½-105
-1½-110
+1½-105
11
7
-0.48268-0.47970-0.41267
Seattle Mariners
Oakland Athletics
40.9%
59.1%
-148
+136
-145
+140
-1½+116
+1½-130
-1½+120
+1½-135
3
0
-0.53652-0.53299-0.89289
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
46.8%
53.2%
+147
-160
+151
-155
+1½-150
-1½+137
+1½-150
-1½+136
4
3
-0.92425-0.92649-0.75862
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
34.2%
65.8%
+116
-126
+116
-123
+1½-190
-1½+165

5
6
-0.60453-0.60941-0.41860
Seattle Mariners
Oakland Athletics
40.9%
59.1%
-158
+145
-157
+147
-1½+105
+1½-121
-1½+102
+1½-115
1
2
-0.91644-0.91985-0.52673
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Angels
49.6%
50.4%
-175
+160
-165
+160
-1½-110
+1½-108
-1½+105
+1½-110
2
3
-0.97625-0.96273-0.68482
Chicago White Sox
Chicago Cubs
55.0%
45.0%
+171
-187
+175
-187
+1½-116
-1½+100
+1½-115
-1½+105
6
7
-0.44873-0.44346-0.79877
Detroit Tigers
Texas Rangers
48.4%
51.6%
+136
-148
+132
-140
+1½-153
-1½+135
+1½-151
-1½+140
1
9
-0.53652-0.55326-0.66140
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks145-9 (0.357)0-0.71956 
Sportsbooks145-9 (0.357)0-0.72103 
DRatings146-8 (0.429)0-0.73559
-0.01603
-0.01455

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.