MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 28, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Randy Vasquez
Eduardo Rodriguez
60.3%
39.7%
+195
-217
+195
-209
+1½-104
-1½-116
+1½-110
-1½-107
4.67
3.60
8.27
o9-110
u9-110
o9-110
u9+100
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Antonio Senzatela
59.7%
40.3%
-242
+215
-230
+220
-1½-160
+1½+140
-1½-150
+1½+140
6.06
5.05
11.11
o11-107
u11-113
o11-105
u11-115
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Andrew Heaney
Griffin Canning
40.5%
59.5%
-138
+127
-136
+129
-1½+114
+1½-134
-1½+122
+1½-135
4.70
5.70
10.40
o8-114
u8-106
o8-110
u8-105
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Joey Estes
Emerson Hancock
52.8%
47.2%
+133
-145
+130
-137
+1½-164
-1½+144
+1½-175
-1½+160
4.98
4.68
9.66
o7½-114
u7½-106
o7½+100
u7½-110
Games for Sep 27, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Houston Astros (70-50)
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
63.9%
36.1%
+139
-152
+137
-140
+1½-160
-1½+140
+1½-160
-1½+150
7.18
o7½-110
u7½-110
o7½-110
u7½-105
4th
TOP
4
3
New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
42.9%
57.1%
-102
-108
+103
-105
-1½+152
+1½-172
+1½-200
-1½+195
8.76
o8½-106
u8½-114
o8½-105
u8½-115
1st
BOT
0
0
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
39.2%
60.8%
+106
-116
+107
-113
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-190
-1½+175
10.76
o8½-105
u8½-115
o8½-105
u8½+100
1st
BOT
2
0
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
42.3%
57.7%
+210
-235
+200
-210
+1½+103
-1½-123
+1½-110
-1½+100
9.66
o7½+105
u7½-125
o7½+100
u7½-115
1st
BOT
0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Atlanta Braves
Boston Red Sox
53.0%
47.0%
+101
-111
-104
-103
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-200
-1½+180
0
9
-0.66563-0.69551-0.75479
Seattle Mariners
Oakland Athletics
40.9%
59.1%
-154
+141
-150
+142
-1½+110
+1½-125
-1½+110
+1½-126
4
3
-0.52140-0.52396-0.89289
San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
60.5%
39.5%
-101
-109
+105
-114
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+175
5
8
-0.67472-0.65009-0.92849
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Angels
55.3%
44.7%
-105
-105
+100
-104


2
4
-0.69315-0.68349-0.80585
Cincinnati Reds
Colorado Rockies
52.3%
47.7%
-124
+114
-122
+115
-1½+120
+1½-139
-1½+125
+1½-140
4
1
-0.61201-0.61323-0.64900
St. Louis Cardinals
Houston Astros
38.7%
61.3%
+141
-154
+145
-153
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-145
-1½+131
5
8
-0.52140-0.51577-0.48872
Chicago White Sox
Chicago Cubs
55.1%
44.9%
+246
-280
+252
-285
+1½+130
-1½-147
+1½+130
-1½-145
6
7
-0.33091-0.32482-0.80120
Detroit Tigers
Texas Rangers
51.6%
48.4%
+101
-111
+102
-109

-1½+163
+1½-180
3
1
-0.72144-0.71953-0.66250
Atlanta Braves
Boston Red Sox
54.7%
45.3%
-155
+142
-152
+145
-1½+100
+1½-118
-1½+105
+1½-118
8
3
-0.51869-0.51683-0.60278
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
38.4%
61.6%
-145
+134
-140
+138
-1½+115
+1½-130
-1½+115
+1½-128
10
1
-0.54352-0.54249-0.95808
Minnesota Twins
New York Yankees
39.6%
60.4%
+159
-174
+164
-168
+1½-125
-1½+106
+1½-128
-1½+110
1
5
-0.47499-0.47266-0.50421
New York Mets
Washington Nationals
50.2%
49.8%
-140
+129
-135
+127
-1½+115
+1½-130
-1½+115
+1½-130
6
3
-0.55881-0.56920-0.68880
Tampa Bay Rays
Miami Marlins
55.6%
44.4%
-128
+118
-127
+119
-1½+135
+1½-155
-1½+140
+1½-155
9
5
-0.59724-0.59673-0.58717
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
47.6%
52.4%
+115
-125
+114
-122
+1½-182
-1½+162
+1½-190
-1½+170
5
8
-0.60825-0.61535-0.64718
Milwaukee Brewers
Philadelphia Phillies
50.3%
49.7%
+138
-150
+138
-146
+1½-147
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+135
1
2
-0.53079-0.53529-0.69935
Los Angeles Dodgers
Pittsburgh Pirates
67.0%
33.0%
-182
+166
-175
+170
-1½-125
+1½+105
-1½-125
+1½+110
0
1
-0.99943-0.99997-1.10887
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks145-9 (0.357)0-0.74959 
Sportsbooks145-9 (0.357)0-0.75500 
DRatings146-8 (0.429)0-0.73665
0.01294
0.01835

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.