MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 28, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Andrew Heaney
Griffin Canning
40.5%
59.5%
-138
+127
-136
+129
-1½+112
+1½-130
-1½+122
+1½-135
4.70
5.70
10.40
o8-114
u8-106
o8-110
u8½-115
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Joey Estes
Emerson Hancock
52.8%
47.2%
+133
-145
+134
-137
+1½-164
-1½+144
+1½-164
-1½+160
4.98
4.68
9.66
o7½-114
u7½-106
o7½+100
u7½-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Sep 27, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
42.9%
57.1%
-102
-108
+103
-105
-1½+152
+1½-172
+1½-200
-1½+195
8.76
o8½-106
u8½-114
o8½-105
u8½-115
8th
BOT
0
2
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
39.2%
60.8%
+106
-116
+107
-113
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-190
-1½+175
10.76
o8½-105
u8½-115
o8½-105
u8½+100
8th
TOP
9
0
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
42.3%
57.7%
+210
-235
+200
-210
+1½+103
-1½-123
+1½-110
-1½+100
9.66
o7½+105
u7½-125
o7½+100
u7½-115
8th
BOT
1
1
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
60.3%
39.7%
+198
-220
+190
-198
+1½-102
-1½-118
+1½-110
-1½-105
8.27
o9-110
u9-110
o9-110
u9+100
5th
BOT
0
0
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
59.7%
40.3%
-238
+212
-230
+220
-1½-160
+1½+140
-1½-150
+1½+140
11.11
o11-110
u11-110
o11-105
u11-115
5th
TOP
5
2

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Los Angeles Dodgers
Pittsburgh Pirates
67.0%
33.0%
-182
+166
-175
+170
-1½-125
+1½+105
-1½-125
+1½+110
0
1
-0.99943-0.99997-1.10887
San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
60.5%
39.5%
+113
-119
+117
-125
+1½-180
-1½+165
+1½-170
-1½+155
2
4
-0.62273-0.60404-0.92849
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Angels
52.2%
47.8%
-147
+135
-146
+139
-1½+111
+1½-130
-1½+115
+1½-130
1
2
-0.87488-0.88312-0.73731
Cincinnati Reds
Colorado Rockies
51.6%
48.4%
-109
-101
-103
+103
-1½+135
+1½-155
-1½+145
+1½-155
13
3
-0.67472-0.67848-0.66198
St. Louis Cardinals
Houston Astros
28.4%
71.6%
+165
-180
+166
-180
+1½-133
-1½+115
+1½-130
-1½+115
4
7
-0.46185-0.46045-0.33366
Detroit Tigers
Texas Rangers
46.8%
53.2%
-102
-108
-105
-102

-1½+155
+1½-170
2
1
-0.70719-0.68605-0.75830
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
30.4%
69.6%
-113
+103
-110
+105
-1½+147
+1½-167
-1½+150
+1½-160
6
2
-0.65676-0.65817-1.18945
New York Mets
Washington Nationals
50.2%
49.8%
+102
-112
+104
-112
+1½-197
-1½+175
+1½-200
-1½+176
8
7
-0.72619-0.73126-0.68830
Milwaukee Brewers
Philadelphia Phillies
50.3%
49.7%
+169
-185
+176
-188
+1½-120
-1½+105
+1½-120
-1½+105
1
3
-0.45279-0.44150-0.69935
St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies
44.1%
55.9%
+124
-135
+132
-134
+1½-162
-1½+145
+1½-155
-1½+141
5
4
-0.82716-0.84525-0.81842
Los Angeles Angels
Seattle Mariners
48.1%
51.9%
+183
-202
+182
-200
+1½-123
-1½+110
+1½-129
-1½+111
1
5
-0.42416-0.42652-0.65574
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
33.3%
66.7%
+230
-250
+227
-250
+1½+115
-1½-128
+1½+110
-1½-128
0
4
-0.35364-0.35636-0.40528
New York Yankees
San Francisco Giants
47.1%
52.9%
-129
+121
-130
+124
-1½+118
+1½-130
-1½+125
+1½-135
7
5
-0.58960-0.58212-0.75377
Cincinnati Reds
Chicago Cubs
51.6%
48.4%
+112
-122
+114
-117
+1½-205
-1½+175
+1½-190
-1½+175
5
2
-0.77245-0.76725-0.66231
San Diego Padres
Kansas City Royals
54.3%
45.7%
+120
-130
+118
-121
+1½-175
-1½+157
+1½-178
-1½+160
3
4
-0.59012-0.60859-0.78301
Chicago White Sox
Milwaukee Brewers
51.2%
48.8%
+286
-310
+297
-330
+1½+138
-1½-145
+1½+145
-1½-160
3
6
-0.29464-0.28384-0.71773
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks124-8 (0.333)0-0.77595 
Sportsbooks124-8 (0.333)0-0.78022 
DRatings125-7 (0.417)0-0.73044
0.04551
0.04978

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.