MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 29, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Michael McGreevy
Hayden Birdsong
40.0%
60.0%
+110
-120
+110
-115
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-185
-1½+170
3.64
4.68
8.32
o8½+105
u8½-125
o8½+113
u8+100
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Aaron Nola
Jake Irvin
56.1%
43.9%
-156
+143
-165
+150
-1½+100
+1½-120
-1½-102
+1½-116
4.63
3.99
8.62
o8+100
u8-120
o8+100
u8-120
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Ryan Pepiot
Quinn Priester
48.5%
51.5%

-114
-104

-1½+147
+1½-167
4.65
4.81
9.46

o8½-105
u8½-115
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
New York Yankees (69-52)
Bailey Falter
Clarke Schmidt
34.4%
65.6%
+160
-175
+175
-178
+1½-137
-1½+117
+1½-130
-1½+115
3.84
5.47
9.31
o8½-105
u8½-115
o8½-105
u8½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Undecided Undecided
Jack Kochanowicz
39.3%
60.7%




4.88
6.01
10.89


Miami Marlins (51-70)
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Ryan Weathers
Undecided Undecided
38.3%
61.7%




4.02
5.24
9.26


San Diego Padres (67-56)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Martin Perez
Brandon Pfaadt
60.3%
39.7%
+169
-185
+165
-180
+1½-126
-1½+106
+1½-125
-1½+108
4.67
3.60
8.27
o9+100
u9-120
o9+100
u9-120
New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
David Peterson
Colin Rea
42.9%
57.1%
-116
+106
-115
+105
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+140
+1½-159
4.01
4.75
8.76
o8-110
u8-110
o8-110
u8-110
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Anthony Banda
Ryan Feltner
60.8%
39.2%




5.65
4.51
10.16


Houston Astros (70-50)
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
Ryan Gusto
Nick Sandlin
55.9%
44.1%

+162
-182

+1½-139
-1½+119
4.38
3.75
8.13

o7½-110
u7½-110
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Mitch Spence
Logan Gilbert
52.8%
47.2%
+151
-165
+152
-162
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-148
-1½+130
5.06
4.76
9.82
o7-110
u7-110
o7-120
u7½-115
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Jonathan Cannon
Undecided Undecided
57.8%
42.2%




4.96
4.14
9.10


Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Albert Suarez
Bailey Ober
39.2%
60.8%

+148
-167

+1½-149
-1½+129
4.68
5.81
10.49

o7½-110
u7½-110
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Hunter Greene
Caleb Kilian
51.6%
48.4%

-119
+101

-1½+142
+1½-162
4.23
4.06
8.29

o7-120
u7+100
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Alec Marsh
Charlie Morton
38.5%
61.5%




3.96
5.17
9.13


Games for Sep 28, 2024
Games for Sep 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Mets
42.7%
57.3%
-123
+113
-120
+113
-1½+145
+1½-163
-1½+150
+1½-163
2
3
-0.77696-0.77096-0.55762
Houston Astros
Seattle Mariners
56.0%
44.0%
+117
-127
+122
-127
+1½-180
-1½+160
+1½-175
-1½+160
4
0
-0.79483-0.80737-0.57996
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
46.8%
53.2%
+143
-128
+144
-154
+1½-155
-1½+170
+1½-152
-1½+140
6
7
-0.54986-0.51639-0.63070
Oakland Athletics
Tampa Bay Rays
45.0%
55.0%
+143
-156
+147
-154
+1½-152
-1½+132
+1½-152
-1½+135
5
6
-0.51601-0.51148-0.59838
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
38.8%
61.2%
+111
-121
+111
-119
+1½-190
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+175
4
6
-0.62358-0.62712-0.49065
Houston Astros
Seattle Mariners
63.9%
36.1%
-110
+100
+100
-101

+1½-220
-1½+200
1
2
-0.71668-0.69067-1.02004
New York Yankees
Los Angeles Angels
52.6%
47.4%
-202
+183
-200
+189
-1½-135
+1½+115
-1½-133
+1½+115
2
1
-0.42416-0.41806-0.64223
Cleveland Indians
Colorado Rockies
47.7%
52.3%
-140
+129
-138
+135
-1½+110
+1½-118
-1½+105
+1½-115
4
7
-0.84838-0.85977-0.64852
Toronto Blue Jays
Chicago White Sox
47.1%
52.9%
-200
+182
-190
+185
-1½-125
+1½+110
-1½-120
+1½+105
3
1
-0.42652-0.42889-0.75360
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
43.5%
56.5%
+112
-122
+121
-128
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-180
-1½+168
6
1
-0.77245-0.80679-0.83312
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
38.8%
61.2%
-140
+129
-140
+137
-1½+122
+1½-135
-1½+125
+1½-135
6
10
-0.84838-0.86814-0.49065
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves
40.8%
59.2%
+133
-145
+136
-145
+1½-155
-1½+135
+1½-155
-1½+136
7
2
-0.86669-0.87412-0.89668
Oakland Athletics
Tampa Bay Rays
45.0%
55.0%
+166
-182
+169
-180
+1½-130
-1½+110
+1½-130
-1½+115
3
4
-0.45901-0.45634-0.59838
Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles
56.3%
43.7%
+159
-174
+163
-175
+1½-135
-1½+117
+1½-135
-1½+122
1
6
-0.47499-0.46844-0.82796
Miami Marlins
San Diego Padres
34.6%
65.4%
+159
-174
+166
-170
+1½-135
-1½+120
+1½-140
-1½+125
9
1
-0.97257-0.98387-1.06268
Los Angeles Dodgers
New York Mets
56.6%
43.4%
-113
+103
-112
+108
-1½+140
+1½-150
-1½+140
+1½-155
10
3
-0.65676-0.64712-0.56884
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks157-8 (0.467)0-0.74152 
Sportsbooks157-8 (0.467)0-0.74019 
DRatings158-7 (0.533)0-0.69475
0.04677
0.04544

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.