Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Utrecht
Ajax		7.8%
78.8%		13.4%
+220
+118

3
4		-0.83087-0.23871
Heerenveen
Utrecht		28.8%
46.2%		25.0%
+285
-108

2
3		-0.70700-0.77234
Groningen
Ajax		8.1%
76.7%		15.2%
+300
-117

0
2		-0.67546-0.26558
Feyenoord
Zwolle		64.5%
16.0%		19.5%
-206
+470

2
0		-0.45320-0.43920
Groningen
Heracles Almelo		39.8%
31.5%		28.7%
-169
+405

2
1		-0.52199-0.92047
Ajax
Heerenveen		76.1%
9.1%		14.8%
-101
+230

0
0		-1.44983-1.91237
Twente
PSV Eindhoven		13.0%
69.7%		17.3%
+176
+126

1
5		-0.86579-0.36088
Fortuna Sittard
Utrecht		19.5%
59.5%		21.0%
+450
-196

0
2		-0.47181-0.51861
Sparta Rotterdam
Twente		29.6%
45.8%		24.6%
+675
-270

0
4		-0.36665-0.78062
Utrecht
Ajax		7.8%
78.8%		13.4%
+395
-159

2
1		-1.66031-2.54644
AZ Alkmaar
Feyenoord		40.5%
32.9%		26.7%
+260
-106

1
1		-1.38898-1.32171
Zwolle
Fortuna Sittard		33.3%
41.4%		25.3%
+215
+120

2
3		-0.84077-0.88211
RKC Waalwijk
Willem II		19.6%
57.9%		22.4%
+265
-107

1
1		-1.35759-1.49593
Twente
AZ Alkmaar		11.2%
72.1%		16.6%
+180
+140

2
2		-1.34140-1.79444
Heracles Almelo
Zwolle		39.6%
33.9%		26.4%
+450
-185

0
1		-0.48872-1.08190
Feyenoord
Fortuna Sittard		64.6%
15.9%		19.4%
-159
+395

2
1		-0.54053-0.43634
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.