Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 5, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Feyenoord
AZ Alkmaar 		25.7%
49.6%		24.7%
+175
+140

1.10
1.62		2.72
o2¾+115
u2¾-120

Fortuna Sittard
Twente 		26.3%
49.7%		24.0%
+600
-250

1.17
1.70		2.87
o2¾-115
u2¾-102

PSV Eindhoven
Groningen 		50.8%
24.3%		24.9%
-256
+600

1.61
1.03		2.64
o3-105
u3-112

Games for Apr 4, 2025
Games for Apr 6, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Heerenveen
PSV Eindhoven		15.4%
65.7%		18.9%
+1000
-455

1
2		-0.24710-0.41957
Heracles Almelo
Fortuna Sittard		39.7%
33.7%		26.6%
+205
+130

0
1		-0.88409-1.08815
Willem II
Sparta Rotterdam		30.9%
44.2%		24.9%
+420
-145

0
4		-0.56747-0.81561
Zwolle
Heracles Almelo		26.6%
48.9%		24.5%
+230
+125

2
4		-0.86022-0.71627
AZ Alkmaar
Heerenveen		60.4%
18.2%		21.3%
+117
+245

1
3		-1.27812-1.70249
Twente
Groningen		25.1%
49.0%		25.8%
+100
+285

1
1		-1.25481-1.35321
Fortuna Sittard
RKC Waalwijk		48.0%
27.1%		24.9%
+240
+115

2
1		-1.27172-0.73474
Fortuna Sittard
AZ Alkmaar		8.3%
77.9%		13.8%
+900
-345

0
1		-0.30400-0.24963
Heracles Almelo
Ajax		5.6%
82.9%		11.4%
+700
-323

0
4		-0.32352-0.18694
Heerenveen
Zwolle		44.7%
30.2%		25.1%
+150
+170

1
1		-1.28627-1.38362
RKC Waalwijk
Twente		15.5%
64.3%		20.1%
+625
-300

0
2		-0.35510-0.44096
Groningen
Willem II		47.0%
26.8%		26.2%
+185
+170

3
1		-1.11926-0.75498
Utrecht
PSV Eindhoven		18.3%
61.4%		20.3%
+650
-303

2
2		-1.75435-1.59578
Twente
Heerenveen		29.2%
45.6%		25.2%
+105
+240

3
3		-1.33891-1.37745
Zwolle
AZ Alkmaar		8.3%
78.0%		13.7%
+700
-278

0
2		-0.35523-0.24906
Ajax
Fortuna Sittard		83.3%
5.7%		10.9%
-204
+525

2
0		-0.44180-0.18221
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.47768 
Sportsbooks10-0-0 (0.500)1 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.63925
-0.16157

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.