Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Utrecht
Ajax		7.8%
78.8%		13.4%
+675
-235
+625
-225
2
2		-1.70194-1.56394-2.01029
Heracles Almelo
AZ Alkmaar		11.2%
71.6%		17.2%
+630
-250
+700
-300
0
1		-0.38647-0.33837-0.33463
PSV Eindhoven
Utrecht		52.2%
24.7%		23.0%
-222
+530
-200
+515
5
2		-0.42085-0.45567-0.64919
Sparta Rotterdam
Zwolle		36.5%
37.9%		25.5%
+157
+174
+155
+175
0
1		-1.05504-1.06031-0.96906
Fortuna Sittard
Feyenoord		11.4%
72.2%		16.4%
+1100
-400
+950
-380
1
1		-1.84049-1.84396-1.81021
Willem II
Groningen		20.4%
55.9%		23.7%
+310
+100
+285
+110
0
2		-0.74345-0.79396-0.58141
RKC Waalwijk
Heerenveen		13.3%
68.0%		18.7%
+410
-160
+380
-150
1
1		-1.49263-1.46192-1.67675
Zwolle
Ajax		4.2%
86.9%		8.9%
+2000
-909
+1900
-875
0
2		-0.15675-0.15957-0.14076
AZ Alkmaar
Sparta Rotterdam		68.9%
13.3%		17.7%
+164
+168
+160
+170
2
1		-1.01999-1.00761-0.37198
Twente
Fortuna Sittard		40.3%
33.7%		25.9%
-122
+345
-120
+330
2
1		-0.64940-0.65682-0.90790
Groningen
PSV Eindhoven		18.2%
59.7%		22.1%
+1500
-588
+1725
-800
0
5		-0.19987-0.16828-0.51663
Heerenveen
Feyenoord		18.1%
60.8%		21.1%
+875
-345
+945
-375
0
3		-0.30078-0.28692-0.49770
RKC Waalwijk
Heracles Almelo		15.7%
63.4%		20.9%
+340
-135
+325
-130
2
2		-1.45564-1.43557-1.56705
Willem II
AZ Alkmaar		8.7%
76.8%		14.4%
+460
-164
+500
-175
2
1		-1.77137-1.84049-2.44001
Ajax
Twente		79.0%
7.7%		13.3%
+140
+185
+145
+175
2
2		-1.30468-1.31908-2.01688
Fortuna Sittard
Zwolle		33.0%
41.7%		25.3%
+185
+153
+165
+170
1
3		-0.97620-1.04276-0.87383
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.