Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 3, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Feyenoord
Fortuna Sittard 		64.6%
15.9%		19.4%


2.19
0.99		3.18


Heracles Almelo
Zwolle 		39.6%
33.9%		26.4%


1.35
1.23		2.58


Twente
AZ Alkmaar 		11.2%
72.1%		16.6%


0.85
2.43		3.28


Games for May 2, 2026
Games for May 4, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Fortuna Sittard
Heerenveen		23.0%
54.2%		22.9%
+500
-222

1
2		-0.43433-0.61306
Groningen
Feyenoord		21.1%
54.5%		24.5%
+340
-141

1
3		-0.58524-0.60787
Zwolle
PSV Eindhoven		9.6%
76.1%		14.3%
+700
-345

1
6		-0.30725-0.27360
Heerenveen
AZ Alkmaar		13.2%
68.5%		18.3%
+325
-147

0
3		-0.58005-0.37853
Ajax
Heracles Almelo		78.4%
7.7%		13.8%
-185
+415

3
0		-0.49106-0.24354
PSV Eindhoven
Sparta Rotterdam		66.1%
15.5%		18.4%
-109
+240

2
0		-0.70605-0.41412
Heracles Almelo
Heerenveen		28.8%
45.3%		25.9%
+520
-208

1
4		-0.42474-0.79133
Twente
Ajax		5.6%
83.5%		10.9%
+192
+136

2
1		-1.09718-2.88598
Fortuna Sittard
AZ Alkmaar		8.3%
77.9%		13.8%
+780
-303

0
2		-0.31686-0.24963
Utrecht
PSV Eindhoven		18.3%
61.4%		20.3%
+620
-218

3
4		-0.40979-0.48789
AZ Alkmaar
Groningen		54.1%
21.3%		24.7%
+131
+200

0
3		-1.12760-1.54872
Ajax
Feyenoord		59.7%
18.7%		21.7%
+270
-111

1
1		-1.45047-1.52975
Twente
Fortuna Sittard		40.3%
33.7%		25.9%
-189
+500

2
1		-0.45755-0.90790
Heracles Almelo
AZ Alkmaar		11.2%
71.6%		17.2%
+675
-278

0
4		-0.34494-0.33463
Utrecht
Twente		41.6%
32.6%		25.8%
+400
-141

2
0		-1.64387-0.87717
Sparta Rotterdam
Ajax		4.8%
85.6%		9.6%
+340
-133

0
4		-0.59352-0.15559
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.