Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated 13 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
04/13/2025 10:15 AM	Groningen Utrecht	32.0% 40.2%	27.7%	+310 -105	1 3	-0.71398	-0.91063
04/12/2025 04:45 PM	Heerenveen Sparta Rotterdam	41.0% 33.4%	25.6%	+300 -115	1 3	-0.67264	-1.09784
04/12/2025 02:30 PM	Feyenoord Fortuna Sittard	64.6% 15.9%	19.4%	-205 +580	2 0	-0.44272	-0.43634
04/06/2025 10:15 AM	Heracles Almelo RKC Waalwijk	54.9% 21.2%	23.8%	+190 +140	0 0	-1.29891	-1.43410
04/05/2025 06:00 PM	PSV Eindhoven Groningen	50.8% 24.3%	24.9%	-230 +550	3 1	-0.43151	-0.67710
04/05/2025 04:45 PM	Fortuna Sittard Twente	26.3% 49.7%	24.0%	+625 -260	1 1	-1.64320	-1.42766
04/05/2025 02:30 PM	Feyenoord AZ Alkmaar	25.7% 49.6%	24.7%	+165 +151	1 0	-1.03423	-1.35837
04/04/2025 06:00 PM	Willem II Heerenveen	23.9% 52.8%	23.3%	+500 -195	1 3	-0.47768	-0.63925
04/02/2025 06:00 PM	Groningen Feyenoord	21.1% 54.5%	24.5%	+650 -244	1 4	-0.40866	-0.60787
04/01/2025 06:00 PM	RKC Waalwijk AZ Alkmaar	4.8% 84.6%	10.6%	+1100 -455	2 2	-1.94024	-2.24517
03/30/2025 12:30 PM	Twente Heracles Almelo	32.8% 40.5%	26.7%	-112 +295	1 2	-1.42770	-0.90426
03/30/2025 12:30 PM	Ajax PSV Eindhoven	55.9% 21.7%	22.3%	+440 -190	2 0	-1.73812	-0.58073
03/30/2025 10:15 AM	Heerenveen Utrecht	28.8% 46.2%	25.0%	+300 -111	0 2	-0.68762	-0.77234
03/29/2025 08:00 PM	RKC Waalwijk Zwolle	20.4% 57.4%	22.2%	+250 +105	0 2	-0.76424	-0.55540
03/29/2025 05:45 PM	Sparta Rotterdam Fortuna Sittard	36.5% 37.6%	25.9%	+146 +195	3 0	-0.94755	-1.00753
03/16/2025 03:45 PM	AZ Alkmaar Ajax	18.5% 59.9%	21.6%	+280 -105	2 2	-1.32246	-1.53438

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)	14.0	3.0	8.0	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)	14.0	5.0	7.0	49.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
5	Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)	13.0	8.0	5.0	44.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
6	Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)	12.0	8.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)	12.0	9.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)	10.0	10.0	6.0	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)	10.0	11.0	5.0	35.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)	8.0	9.0	9.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)	9.0	11.0	6.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)	9.0	12.0	5.0	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)	8.0	14.0	4.0	28.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)	7.0	13.0	6.0	27.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)	7.0	14.0	5.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)	6.0	12.0	8.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)	4.0	15.0	7.0	19.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
18	RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)	4.0	19.0	3.0	15.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.