Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 10, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Ajax
Twente 		79.0%
7.7%		13.3%
+155
+171
+160
+155
2.76
0.77		3.53
o2¾-109
u2¾-108

Willem II
AZ Alkmaar 		8.7%
76.8%		14.4%
+550
-204
+575
-215
0.78
2.64		3.42
o2¾+102
u2¾-120

Games for Nov 9, 2024
Games for Nov 11, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Groningen
Heerenveen		35.8%
35.4%		28.8%
+198
+135
+170
+150
1
2		-0.88889-0.96703-1.03933
Sparta Rotterdam
RKC Waalwijk		52.1%
24.1%		23.8%
-110
+315
-110
+290
2
1		-0.66128-0.69589-0.65270
Willem II
Utrecht		20.3%
58.0%		21.7%
+440
-156
+450
-170
2
3		-0.53596-0.51371-0.54440
AZ Alkmaar
Zwolle		71.7%
11.6%		16.6%
-222
+530
-260
+625
2
1		-0.42280-0.37656-0.33207
Fortuna Sittard
Ajax		4.2%
86.8%		8.9%
+850
-323
+900
-325
0
5		-0.32236-0.31859-0.14137
Heerenveen
Twente		36.5%
36.6%		26.8%
+740
-333
+725
-320
0
2		-0.31331-0.32052-1.00392
RKC Waalwijk
Willem II		19.6%
57.9%		22.4%
+320
-112
+320
-120
0
3		-0.67411-0.65514-0.54568
Heerenveen
AZ Alkmaar		13.2%
68.5%		18.3%
+640
-263
+680
-260
1
9		-0.37291-0.37462-0.37853
Feyenoord
Groningen		45.6%
27.5%		26.9%
-133
+360
-165
+420
2
2		-1.42379-1.49593-1.31126
Zwolle
Twente		26.5%
49.6%		23.9%
+850
-333
+875
-340
1
1		-1.77431-1.78260-1.43138
Heracles Almelo
Zwolle		39.6%
33.9%		26.4%
+245
+103
+250
+105
0
3		-0.75944-0.76787-1.08190
Twente
Utrecht		25.3%
50.9%		23.8%
+145
+178
+140
+190
1
2		-1.07084-1.11480-0.67531
Sparta Rotterdam
Willem II		35.3%
38.8%		25.9%
+136
+200
+135
+195
2
1		-0.90451-0.90342-1.04018
AZ Alkmaar
RKC Waalwijk		80.6%
6.6%		12.8%
-235
+620
-220
+600
3
0		-0.40006-0.42593-0.21552
Feyenoord
Sparta Rotterdam		61.1%
18.3%		20.6%
-238
+575
-220
+540
1
1		-1.67643-1.61944-1.58061
Willem II
Heracles Almelo		27.3%
47.4%		25.3%
+189
+145
+180
+140
1
1		-1.27093-1.33124-1.37626
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.96015 
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.00512 
DRatings22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.74690
0.21325
0.25822

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.