Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Sparta Rotterdam
Groningen		22.2%
53.8%		24.0%
+200
+145
+190
+150
0
1		-0.94410-0.96748-0.61997
Heracles Almelo
Utrecht		25.0%
50.6%		24.4%
+550
-204
+600
-235
0
1		-0.44733-0.40386-0.68148
Utrecht
Sparta Rotterdam		46.3%
29.2%		24.4%
+170
+170
+155
+170
4
1		-1.02753-0.98714-0.76977
Heerenveen
Fortuna Sittard		44.8%
30.0%		25.2%
+240
+119
+255
+110
0
3		-0.82371-0.78858-1.20414
AZ Alkmaar
Feyenoord		40.5%
32.9%		26.7%
+460
-145
+460
-165
2
3		-0.54782-0.52373-1.11270
PSV Eindhoven
Ajax		15.9%
64.6%		19.4%
+150
+165
+130
+200
2
3		-1.03193-1.15103-0.43618
Twente
Willem II		39.0%
34.8%		26.2%
-141
+440
-155
+455
1
0		-0.56235-0.54775-0.94104
Ajax
Feyenoord		59.7%
18.7%		21.7%
+265
+101
+285
-105
2
0		-1.34654-1.39659-0.51664
Willem II
Ajax		4.4%
86.2%		9.4%
+625
-250
+700
-265
0
1		-0.39733-0.36993-0.14900
Heracles Almelo
Twente		32.4%
40.9%		26.6%
+900
-420
+890
-390
0
5		-0.27556-0.27892-0.89345
Feyenoord
Utrecht		47.0%
28.1%		24.9%
-107
+275
-120
+295
2
0		-0.72311-0.65662-0.75577
Sparta Rotterdam
Heerenveen		25.9%
50.4%		23.7%
+190
+126
+190
+130
0
2		-0.87134-0.88160-0.68560
Zwolle
PSV Eindhoven		9.6%
76.1%		14.3%
+1500
-800
+2000
-1100
0
6		-0.17841-0.13699-0.27360
Groningen
Fortuna Sittard		48.5%
25.9%		25.6%
+265
+105
+310
-105
0
1		-0.78500-0.71803-1.35201
Utrecht
Groningen		32.4%
39.9%		27.7%
+154
+175
+115
+220
1
0		-0.98235-0.81577-1.12726
Ajax
Heracles Almelo		78.4%
7.7%		13.8%
-275
+600
-235
+565
4
3		-0.37994-0.40512-0.24354
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.