Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 5, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Feyenoord
AZ Alkmaar 		25.7%
49.6%		24.7%
+175
+140

1.10
1.62		2.72
o2¾+115
u2¾-120

Fortuna Sittard
Twente 		26.3%
49.7%		24.0%
+600
-250

1.17
1.70		2.87
o2¾-120
u2¾+101

PSV Eindhoven
Groningen 		50.8%
24.3%		24.9%
-250
+600

1.61
1.03		2.64
o2¾-120
u2¾+105

Games for Apr 4, 2025
Games for Apr 6, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
AZ Alkmaar
Utrecht		55.9%
21.5%		22.6%
+163
+165

0
0		-1.25278-1.48687
PSV Eindhoven
Zwolle		69.2%
13.5%		17.3%
-455
+1000

1
3		-2.46041-2.00144
Utrecht
Feyenoord		21.3%
56.2%		22.4%
+690
-270

2
1		-2.11436-1.54426
Willem II
Twente		27.3%
48.3%		24.4%
+950
-315

2
6		-0.31777-0.72846
AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven		36.5%
37.0%		26.6%
+550
-244

2
2		-1.70265-1.32595
RKC Waalwijk
Ajax		2.8%
90.1%		7.1%
+1700
-833

1
2		-0.16306-0.10439
Sparta Rotterdam
Heracles Almelo		29.6%
45.1%		25.2%
+120
+240

1
1		-1.24434-1.37642
Fortuna Sittard
Utrecht		19.5%
59.5%		21.0%
+550
-192
+630
-205
5
2		-1.92005-2.03953-1.63645
Feyenoord
PSV Eindhoven		29.2%
45.9%		24.9%
+380
-159
+395
-160
0
3		-0.53623-0.53686-0.77873
Ajax
Sparta Rotterdam		81.6%
6.6%		11.8%
-123
+330
-160
+435
2
0		-0.62854-0.53649-0.20281
Twente
AZ Alkmaar		11.2%
72.1%		16.6%
+275
+105
+230
+110
0
1		-0.77816-0.79025-0.32660
Zwolle
RKC Waalwijk		48.2%
27.0%		24.8%
+151
+177
+150
+175
1
1		-1.28645-1.29048-1.39453
Groningen
Twente		40.1%
32.0%		27.9%
+730
-286
+950
-320
0
2		-0.34872-0.32379-1.14025
Heracles Almelo
Feyenoord		15.4%
64.5%		20.1%
+1600
-714
+1400
-600
2
5		-0.18073-0.20332-0.43838
RKC Waalwijk
Fortuna Sittard		20.5%
57.1%		22.4%
+400
-150
+415
-150
2
3		-0.55961-0.56017-0.56030
PSV Eindhoven
Heerenveen		57.1%
21.0%		21.9%
-400
+950
-410
+850
0
1		-2.39284-2.30209-1.55946
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.47768 
Sportsbooks10-0-0 (0.500)1 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.63925
-0.16157

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.