Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated 13 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
02/16/2025 01:30 PM	Heerenveen Zwolle	44.7% 30.2%	25.1%	+150 +170	1 1	-1.28627	-1.38362
02/16/2025 01:30 PM	RKC Waalwijk Twente	15.5% 64.3%	20.1%	+625 -300	0 2	-0.35510	-0.44096
02/15/2025 08:00 PM	Groningen Willem II	47.0% 26.8%	26.2%	+185 +170	3 1	-1.11926	-0.75498
02/15/2025 03:30 PM	Utrecht PSV Eindhoven	18.3% 61.4%	20.3%	+650 -303	2 2	-1.75435	-1.59578
02/09/2025 03:45 PM	Twente Heerenveen	29.2% 45.6%	25.2%	+105 +240	3 3	-1.33891	-1.37745
02/09/2025 03:45 PM	Zwolle AZ Alkmaar	8.3% 78.0%	13.7%	+700 -278	0 2	-0.35523	-0.24906
02/09/2025 01:30 PM	Ajax Fortuna Sittard	83.3% 5.7%	10.9%	-204 +525	2 0	-0.44180	-0.18221
02/08/2025 08:00 PM	Sparta Rotterdam Feyenoord	13.2% 69.3%	17.5%	+600 -215	0 3	-0.42384	-0.36736
02/08/2025 05:45 PM	Willem II PSV Eindhoven	10.1% 75.0%	14.9%	+1550 -675	1 1	-2.21898	-1.90508
02/02/2025 07:00 PM	AZ Alkmaar Willem II	70.4% 12.2%	17.4%	-156 +475	2 0	-0.56203	-0.35030
02/02/2025 03:45 PM	Groningen Sparta Rotterdam	44.7% 28.9%	26.4%	+370 -133	0 1	-0.62392	-1.24109
02/02/2025 01:30 PM	Feyenoord Ajax	13.6% 67.8%	18.6%	+230 +116	1 2	-0.82849	-0.38893
02/01/2025 07:00 PM	Fortuna Sittard Heerenveen	23.0% 54.2%	22.9%	+350 -135	2 2	-1.41272	-1.47504
02/01/2025 05:45 PM	Utrecht Zwolle	50.2% 26.2%	23.6%	+130 +195	3 3	-1.31052	-1.44587
01/28/2025 08:00 PM	Groningen Heracles Almelo	39.8% 31.5%	28.7%		1 1		-1.24834
01/26/2025 03:45 PM	Sparta Rotterdam AZ Alkmaar	9.5% 75.7%	14.7%	+500 -190	2 1	-1.85266	-2.35104

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)	14.0	3.0	8.0	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)	14.0	5.0	7.0	49.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
5	Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)	13.0	8.0	5.0	44.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
6	Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)	12.0	8.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)	12.0	9.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)	10.0	10.0	6.0	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)	10.0	11.0	5.0	35.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)	8.0	9.0	9.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)	9.0	11.0	6.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)	9.0	12.0	5.0	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)	8.0	14.0	4.0	28.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)	7.0	13.0	6.0	27.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)	7.0	14.0	5.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)	6.0	12.0	8.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)	4.0	15.0	7.0	19.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
18	RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)	4.0	19.0	3.0	15.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.