Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
RKC Waalwijk
PSV Eindhoven		5.4%
83.7%		10.8%
+1600
-800
+1125
-580
1
3		-0.16439-0.20997-0.17755
Twente
Zwolle		40.2%
33.9%		25.8%
-270
+700
-340
+720
2
1		-0.34480-0.30986-0.91036
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam		41.0%
33.4%		25.6%
+370
-139
+335
-140
1
2		-0.57121-0.58906-1.09784
Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar		15.8%
64.5%		19.7%
+610
-238
+570
-245
3
3		-1.63712-1.69903-1.62633
PSV Eindhoven
Fortuna Sittard		69.4%
13.4%		17.2%
-310
+725
-365
+850
1
1		-1.79915-1.86795-1.76003
Sparta Rotterdam
Utrecht		22.2%
55.7%		22.1%
+300
-119
+330
-135
1
0		-1.43490-1.51113-1.50544
Vitesse
Heerenveen		43.3%
30.7%		26.0%
+420
-175
+380
-170
3
1		-1.69369-1.62030-0.83803
Zwolle
RKC Waalwijk		48.2%
27.0%		24.8%
+380
-159
+395
-170
1
1		-1.54754-1.56528-1.39453
Zwolle
Feyenoord		11.5%
72.0%		16.4%
+1900
-1150
+2000
-1150
0
5		-0.14251-0.13307-0.32782
Twente
AZ Alkmaar		11.2%
72.1%		16.6%
+245
+120
+230
+120
1
2		-0.82624-0.83884-0.32660
Vitesse
Utrecht		38.4%
34.9%		26.8%
+890
-360
+875
-370
0
1		-0.28422-0.29030-1.05389
RKC Waalwijk
Heracles Almelo		15.7%
63.4%		20.9%
+195
+133
+200
+120
5
0		-1.10933-1.14841-1.85068
Sparta Rotterdam
PSV Eindhoven		11.0%
73.6%		15.4%
+1500
-714
+1640
-800
2
4		-0.17396-0.16864-0.30693
Fortuna Sittard
Vitesse		15.5%
65.0%		19.4%
+123
+220
+115
+215
2
3		-1.19746-1.19548-0.43077
Utrecht
RKC Waalwijk		64.8%
15.3%		19.9%
+110
+245
+105
+240
2
2		-1.33401-1.35919-1.61636
Heracles Almelo
Zwolle		39.6%
33.9%		26.4%
+215
+112
+195
+125
1
3		-0.79598-0.85982-1.08190
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.