Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 6, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Heracles Almelo
RKC Waalwijk 		54.9%
21.2%		23.8%
+185
+135

1.72
0.97		2.69
o2¾-109
u2¾-108

Games for Apr 5, 2025
Games for Apr 12, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
RKC Waalwijk
Heerenveen		13.3%
68.0%		18.7%
+410
-160
+380
-150
1
1		-1.49263-1.46192-1.67675
Zwolle
Ajax		4.2%
86.9%		8.9%
+2000
-909
+1900
-875
0
2		-0.15675-0.15957-0.14076
AZ Alkmaar
Sparta Rotterdam		68.9%
13.3%		17.7%
+164
+168
+160
+170
2
1		-1.01999-1.00761-0.37198
Twente
Fortuna Sittard		40.3%
33.7%		25.9%
-122
+345
-120
+330
2
1		-0.64940-0.65682-0.90790
Groningen
PSV Eindhoven		18.2%
59.7%		22.1%
+1500
-588
+1725
-800
0
5		-0.19987-0.16828-0.51663
Heerenveen
Feyenoord		18.1%
60.8%		21.1%
+875
-345
+945
-375
0
3		-0.30078-0.28692-0.49770
RKC Waalwijk
Heracles Almelo		15.7%
63.4%		20.9%
+340
-135
+325
-130
2
2		-1.45564-1.43557-1.56705
Willem II
AZ Alkmaar		8.7%
76.8%		14.4%
+460
-164
+500
-175
2
1		-1.77137-1.84049-2.44001
Ajax
Twente		79.0%
7.7%		13.3%
+140
+185
+145
+175
2
2		-1.30468-1.31908-2.01688
Fortuna Sittard
Zwolle		33.0%
41.7%		25.3%
+185
+153
+165
+170
1
3		-0.97620-1.04276-0.87383
Sparta Rotterdam
Groningen		22.2%
53.8%		24.0%
+200
+145
+190
+150
0
1		-0.94410-0.96748-0.61997
Heracles Almelo
Utrecht		25.0%
50.6%		24.4%
+550
-204
+600
-235
0
1		-0.44733-0.40386-0.68148
Utrecht
Sparta Rotterdam		46.3%
29.2%		24.4%
+170
+170
+155
+170
4
1		-1.02753-0.98714-0.76977
Heerenveen
Fortuna Sittard		44.8%
30.0%		25.2%
+240
+119
+255
+110
0
3		-0.82371-0.78858-1.20414
AZ Alkmaar
Feyenoord		40.5%
32.9%		26.7%
+460
-145
+460
-165
2
3		-0.54782-0.52373-1.11270
PSV Eindhoven
Ajax		15.9%
64.6%		19.4%
+150
+165
+130
+200
2
3		-1.03193-1.15103-0.43618
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.03631 
Sportsbooks30-0-1 (0.667)3 
DRatings31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.15438
-0.11806

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.