Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated 4 days ago

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Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
04/25/2024 04:45 PM	PSV Eindhoven Heerenveen	57.1% 21.0%	21.9%	-280 +725 -280 +670	8 0	-0.34772-0.35436	-0.56021
04/14/2024 02:45 PM	Twente Ajax	5.6% 83.5%	10.9%	+147 +181 +180 +150	1 2	-1.08255-0.96627	-0.18038
04/14/2024 12:30 PM	Feyenoord Fortuna Sittard	64.6% 15.9%	19.4%	-278 +710 -300 +725	1 0	-0.35722-0.33935	-0.43634
04/14/2024 10:15 AM	Heerenveen Heracles Almelo	36.4% 36.1%	27.5%	+155 +165 +145 +170	2 0	-0.97511-0.94727	-1.01033
04/13/2024 04:45 PM	RKC Waalwijk AZ Alkmaar	4.8% 84.6%	10.6%	+770 -294 +810 -335	2 3	-0.33805-0.31230	-0.16756
04/13/2024 02:30 PM	Vitesse PSV Eindhoven	22.8% 54.5%	22.8%	+2500 -1429 +3150 -2400	0 6	-0.11641-0.09272	-0.60774
04/07/2024 06:00 PM	Utrecht Heerenveen	37.1% 36.2%	26.7%	+200 +145 +170 +160	3 2	-1.13784-1.04120	-0.99166
04/07/2024 12:30 PM	Ajax Feyenoord	59.7% 18.7%	21.7%	+610 -263 +650 -255	0 6	-0.37157-0.38312	-1.67788
04/06/2024 07:00 PM	Fortuna Sittard Twente	26.3% 49.7%	24.0%	+700 -250 +660 -245	0 2	-0.38094-0.39322	-0.69997
04/06/2024 04:45 PM	AZ Alkmaar PSV Eindhoven	36.5% 37.0%	26.6%	+610 -244 +600 -240	1 5	-0.39241-0.39978	-0.99531
04/06/2024 02:30 PM	Heracles Almelo Sparta Rotterdam	36.1% 37.1%	26.8%	+400 -141 +410 -170	2 1	-1.64693-1.68088	-1.01838
04/03/2024 07:00 PM	Twente Heerenveen	29.2% 45.6%	25.2%	-116 +310 -105 +275	3 3	-1.36826-1.35631	-1.37745
04/03/2024 06:00 PM	Zwolle Utrecht	19.6% 59.5%	20.9%	+630 -227 +600 -230	1 5	-0.41244-0.41015	-0.51940
04/03/2024 04:45 PM	AZ Alkmaar Heracles Almelo	64.2% 15.5%	20.3%	-230 +690 -225 +600	0 5	-2.10472-1.99709	-1.86304
04/02/2024 04:45 PM	Sparta Rotterdam Vitesse	17.8% 61.6%	20.6%	+135 +192 +140 +185	4 1	-0.90291-0.92352	-1.72429
03/31/2024 12:30 PM	Heracles Almelo Twente	32.4% 40.9%	26.6%	+1250 -500 +1350 -550	0 1	-0.23136-0.21609	-0.89345

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)	14.0	3.0	8.0	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)	14.0	5.0	7.0	49.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
5	Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)	13.0	8.0	5.0	44.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
6	Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)	12.0	8.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)	12.0	9.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)	10.0	10.0	6.0	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)	10.0	11.0	5.0	35.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)	8.0	9.0	9.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)	9.0	11.0	6.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)	9.0	12.0	5.0	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)	8.0	14.0	4.0	28.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)	7.0	13.0	6.0	27.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)	7.0	14.0	5.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)	6.0	12.0	8.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)	4.0	15.0	7.0	19.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
18	RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)	4.0	19.0	3.0	15.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.