Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated 4 days ago

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Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
03/31/2024 12:30 PM	Utrecht Feyenoord	21.3% 56.2%	22.4%	+890 -345 +850 -350	2 4	-0.30496-0.29982	-0.57602
03/31/2024 10:15 AM	Ajax Zwolle	83.4% 5.7%	10.9%	-164 +400 -180 +450	3 1	-0.52342-0.49248	-0.18164
03/30/2024 08:00 PM	Vitesse AZ Alkmaar	19.8% 57.7%	22.5%	+1200 -455 +1225 -500	0 2	-0.24580-0.23270	-0.55002
03/30/2024 07:00 PM	Heerenveen RKC Waalwijk	60.0% 18.2%	21.8%	+140 +182 +140 +190	1 1	-1.33899-1.28844	-1.52468
03/30/2024 05:45 PM	Fortuna Sittard Sparta Rotterdam	29.9% 45.7%	24.4%	+230 +125 +225 +125	0 4	-0.85170-0.86034	-0.78237
03/17/2024 07:00 PM	Twente PSV Eindhoven	13.0% 69.7%	17.3%	+625 -260 +625 -250	0 1	-0.37309-0.38737	-0.36088
03/17/2024 03:45 PM	Ajax Sparta Rotterdam	81.6% 6.6%	11.8%	+120 +225 +115 +230	2 2	-1.30993-1.31557	-2.13843
03/17/2024 01:30 PM	Feyenoord Heerenveen	51.8% 24.2%	23.9%	-240 +600 -245 +590	3 2	-0.39591-0.39402	-0.65709
03/16/2024 05:45 PM	Zwolle Fortuna Sittard	33.3% 41.4%	25.3%	+365 -135 +380 -140	1 3	-0.60369-0.58913	-0.88211
03/10/2024 07:00 PM	Heracles Almelo Feyenoord	15.4% 64.5%	20.1%	+2200 -1300 +2200 -1400	0 3	-0.11920-0.11863	-0.43838
03/10/2024 01:30 PM	Fortuna Sittard Ajax	4.2% 86.8%	8.9%	+530 -190 +490 -190	2 2	-1.50400-1.53225	-2.41363
03/09/2024 08:00 PM	Vitesse RKC Waalwijk	69.7% 12.2%	18.1%	+220 +125 +220 +120	1 3	-0.85271-0.83605	-2.10513
03/09/2024 05:45 PM	Sparta Rotterdam Twente	29.6% 45.8%	24.6%	+700 -260 +675 -260	1 2	-0.37157-0.37541	-0.78062
03/03/2024 01:30 PM	Feyenoord PSV Eindhoven	29.2% 45.9%	24.9%	+305 -115 +305 -115	2 2	-1.36508-1.35907	-1.39199
03/03/2024 01:30 PM	Zwolle Heerenveen	23.1% 54.1%	22.8%	+575 -220 +575 -220	0 2	-0.42414-0.42414	-0.61417
03/03/2024 11:15 AM	Utrecht Ajax	7.8% 78.8%	13.4%	+258 +105 +245 +100	0 2	-0.75458-0.74156	-0.23871

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)	14.0	3.0	8.0	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)	14.0	5.0	7.0	49.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
5	Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)	13.0	8.0	5.0	44.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
6	Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)	12.0	8.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)	12.0	9.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)	10.0	10.0	6.0	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)	10.0	11.0	5.0	35.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)	8.0	9.0	9.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)	9.0	11.0	6.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)	9.0	12.0	5.0	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)	8.0	14.0	4.0	28.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)	7.0	13.0	6.0	27.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)	7.0	14.0	5.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)	6.0	12.0	8.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)	4.0	15.0	7.0	19.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
18	RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)	4.0	19.0	3.0	15.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.