Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated 4 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
01/12/2024 07:00 PM	Heracles Almelo RKC Waalwijk	54.9% 21.2%	23.8%	+290 -106 +310 -115	2 1	-1.41005-1.45887	-0.59882
12/17/2023 07:00 PM	PSV Eindhoven AZ Alkmaar	29.4% 45.6%	25.0%	-125 +342 -120 +315	4 0	-0.61608-0.65452	-1.22302
12/17/2023 03:45 PM	Zwolle Ajax	4.2% 86.9%	8.9%	+1075 -448 +1000 -475	2 2	-2.05136-2.06404	-2.42058
12/17/2023 01:30 PM	Feyenoord Heracles Almelo	56.0% 20.8%	23.1%	-533 +1100 -500 +1100	4 0	-0.22107-0.23110	-0.57930
12/17/2023 01:30 PM	Twente Sparta Rotterdam	36.6% 37.2%	26.2%	-113 +330 -125 +340	2 2	-1.37642-1.36008	-1.34128
12/16/2023 03:30 PM	RKC Waalwijk Utrecht	11.0% 72.2%	16.8%	+360 -127 +350 -130	1 1	-1.40328-1.38438	-1.78546
12/10/2023 03:45 PM	Heracles Almelo Vitesse	20.4% 56.6%	23.0%	+225 +120 +220 +120	0 2	-0.82768-0.83605	-0.56900
12/10/2023 01:30 PM	RKC Waalwijk Fortuna Sittard	20.5% 57.1%	22.4%	+250 +110 +260 +105	0 1	-0.77936-0.76787	-0.56030
12/09/2023 05:45 PM	Sparta Rotterdam Ajax	4.8% 85.6%	9.6%	+610 -265 +650 -280	1 2	-0.36772-0.35608	-0.15559
12/07/2023 05:45 PM	Heerenveen PSV Eindhoven	15.4% 65.7%	18.9%	+1250 -600 +1350 -650	0 2	-0.20186-0.19502	-0.41957
11/26/2023 03:45 PM	Utrecht Sparta Rotterdam	46.3% 29.2%	24.4%	+195 +140 +200 +140	2 1	-1.13038-1.14599	-0.76977
11/25/2023 08:00 PM	RKC Waalwijk Zwolle	20.4% 57.4%	22.2%	+257 +105 +260 +100	2 1	-1.31004-1.33139	-1.59145
11/25/2023 08:00 PM	Vitesse Ajax	10.0% 74.0%	15.9%	+700 -315 +765 -335	0 5	-0.32128-0.31229	-0.30063
11/25/2023 05:45 PM	PSV Eindhoven Twente	61.6% 18.1%	20.3%	+100 +265 +105 +240	3 0	-0.73714-0.76873	-0.48415
11/25/2023 05:45 PM	Fortuna Sittard Heerenveen	23.0% 54.2%	22.9%	+315 -105 +285 -105	0 3	-0.70716-0.72128	-0.61306
11/12/2023 03:45 PM	AZ Alkmaar Feyenoord	40.5% 32.9%	26.7%	+555 -205 +550 -220	0 1	-0.43863-0.42318	-1.11270

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)	14.0	3.0	8.0	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)	14.0	5.0	7.0	49.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
5	Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)	13.0	8.0	5.0	44.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
6	Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)	12.0	8.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)	12.0	9.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)	10.0	10.0	6.0	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)	10.0	11.0	5.0	35.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)	8.0	9.0	9.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)	9.0	11.0	6.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)	9.0	12.0	5.0	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)	8.0	14.0	4.0	28.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)	7.0	13.0	6.0	27.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)	7.0	14.0	5.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)	6.0	12.0	8.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)	4.0	15.0	7.0	19.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
18	RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)	4.0	19.0	3.0	15.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.