Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated 4 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
11/12/2023 11:15 AM	Zwolle PSV Eindhoven	9.6% 76.1%	14.3%	+2500 -1500 +2300 -1100	0 4	-0.11336-0.13509	-0.27360
11/11/2023 08:00 PM	Heerenveen Vitesse	23.7% 52.5%	23.8%	+210 +136 +195 +135	3 1	-1.17957-1.13082	-1.43948
11/10/2023 07:00 PM	Heracles Almelo Fortuna Sittard	39.7% 33.7%	26.6%	+380 -140 +340 -135	1 4	-0.58284-0.60475	-1.08815
11/05/2023 03:45 PM	Heerenveen Ajax	6.6% 81.3%	12.2%	+625 -260 +575 -260	1 4	-0.36977-0.37629	-0.20722
11/05/2023 01:30 PM	Fortuna Sittard Zwolle	33.0% 41.7%	25.3%	+210 +126 +215 +120	0 2	-0.86488-0.83704	-0.87383
11/05/2023 11:15 AM	Twente Utrecht	25.3% 50.9%	23.8%	-115 +305 -145 +375	1 1	-1.37896-1.44681	-1.43553
11/04/2023 05:45 PM	Feyenoord RKC Waalwijk	75.7% 9.0%	15.3%	-600 +1400 -540 +1250	2 1	-0.20181-0.21979	-0.27810
11/04/2023 03:30 PM	PSV Eindhoven Heracles Almelo	61.2% 17.9%	20.8%	-435 +1050 -525 +1050	6 0	-0.24062-0.22501	-0.49096
10/29/2023 01:30 PM	Ajax PSV Eindhoven	55.9% 21.7%	22.3%	+850 -289 +900 -375	2 5	-0.31191-0.28467	-1.52707
10/29/2023 11:15 AM	Feyenoord Twente	56.5% 21.0%	22.5%	+123 +250 -105 +265	1 2	-1.24939-1.34623	-1.55879
10/28/2023 07:00 PM	Utrecht Fortuna Sittard	50.3% 26.1%	23.6%	+200 +142 +200 +125	0 0	-1.32893-1.34519	-1.44227
10/28/2023 06:00 PM	RKC Waalwijk Sparta Rotterdam	18.0% 61.0%	21.0%	+364 -126 +330 -125	0 2	-0.61328-0.63779	-0.49389
10/28/2023 04:45 PM	Heracles Almelo Heerenveen	28.8% 45.3%	25.9%	+350 -102 +325 -130	0 3	-0.65091-0.61982	-0.79133
10/27/2023 06:00 PM	Zwolle Vitesse	15.6% 65.0%	19.4%	+235 +119 +260 +100	1 1	-1.33344-1.34519	-1.64181
10/22/2023 12:30 PM	Twente Heracles Almelo	32.8% 40.5%	26.7%	-190 +485 -170 +435	2 2	-1.55131-1.49749	-1.32197
10/22/2023 10:15 AM	Ajax Utrecht	72.8% 11.0%	16.2%	-100 +279 -115 +275	3 4	-1.35903-1.37200	-2.21128

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)	14.0	3.0	8.0	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)	14.0	5.0	7.0	49.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
5	Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)	13.0	8.0	5.0	44.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
6	Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)	12.0	8.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)	12.0	9.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)	10.0	10.0	6.0	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)	10.0	11.0	5.0	35.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)	8.0	9.0	9.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)	9.0	11.0	6.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)	9.0	12.0	5.0	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)	8.0	14.0	4.0	28.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)	7.0	13.0	6.0	27.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)	7.0	14.0	5.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)	6.0	12.0	8.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)	4.0	15.0	7.0	19.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
18	RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)	4.0	19.0	3.0	15.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.