Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 23, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Heracles Almelo
Groningen 		24.8%
48.6%		26.6%
+290
+100

0.95
1.45		2.40
o2¼-111
u2¼+100

Games for Apr 22, 2025
Games for Apr 24, 2025

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Ajax
Utrecht 		72.8%
11.0%		16.2%
+100
+255

3.34
o3-102
u3-111

1st H
40:00		0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Vitesse
AZ Alkmaar		19.8%
57.7%		22.5%
+1200
-455
+1225
-500
0
2		-0.24580-0.23270-0.55002
Heerenveen
RKC Waalwijk		60.0%
18.2%		21.8%
+140
+182
+140
+190
1
1		-1.33899-1.28844-1.52468
Fortuna Sittard
Sparta Rotterdam		29.9%
45.7%		24.4%
+230
+125
+225
+125
0
4		-0.85170-0.86034-0.78237
Twente
PSV Eindhoven		13.0%
69.7%		17.3%
+625
-260
+625
-250
0
1		-0.37309-0.38737-0.36088
Ajax
Sparta Rotterdam		81.6%
6.6%		11.8%
+120
+225
+115
+230
2
2		-1.30993-1.31557-2.13843
Feyenoord
Heerenveen		51.8%
24.2%		23.9%
-240
+600
-245
+590
3
2		-0.39591-0.39402-0.65709
Zwolle
Fortuna Sittard		33.3%
41.4%		25.3%
+365
-135
+380
-140
1
3		-0.60369-0.58913-0.88211
Heracles Almelo
Feyenoord		15.4%
64.5%		20.1%
+2200
-1300
+2200
-1400
0
3		-0.11920-0.11863-0.43838
Fortuna Sittard
Ajax		4.2%
86.8%		8.9%
+530
-190
+490
-190
2
2		-1.50400-1.53225-2.41363
Vitesse
RKC Waalwijk		69.7%
12.2%		18.1%
+220
+125
+220
+120
1
3		-0.85271-0.83605-2.10513
Sparta Rotterdam
Twente		29.6%
45.8%		24.6%
+700
-260
+675
-260
1
2		-0.37157-0.37541-0.78062
Feyenoord
PSV Eindhoven		29.2%
45.9%		24.9%
+305
-115
+305
-115
2
2		-1.36508-1.35907-1.39199
Zwolle
Heerenveen		23.1%
54.1%		22.8%
+575
-220
+575
-220
0
2		-0.42414-0.42414-0.61417
Utrecht
Ajax		7.8%
78.8%		13.4%
+258
+105
+245
+100
0
2		-0.75458-0.74156-0.23871
AZ Alkmaar
Sparta Rotterdam		68.9%
13.3%		17.7%
+105
+280
+100
+270
1
1		-1.29909-1.31759-1.73076
Twente
Vitesse		20.6%
57.1%		22.4%
-140
+375
-140
+350
2
1		-0.57608-0.58727-1.58158
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.