Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated 5 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
08/12/2023 07:00 PM	Sparta Rotterdam Zwolle	36.5% 37.9%	25.5%	+165 +160 +160 +160	2 1	-1.01730-1.00518	-1.00810
08/12/2023 06:00 PM	Heracles Almelo Ajax	5.6% 82.9%	11.4%	+945 -385 +900 -475	1 4	-0.26276-0.24315	-0.18694
08/12/2023 04:45 PM	RKC Waalwijk Heerenveen	13.3% 68.0%	18.7%	+430 -170 +435 -170	1 3	-0.50969-0.51316	-0.38535
08/12/2023 02:30 PM	Utrecht PSV Eindhoven	18.3% 61.4%	20.3%	+800 -333 +650 -300	0 2	-0.30448-0.34053	-0.48789
06/11/2023 12:30 PM	Sparta Rotterdam Twente	29.6% 45.8%	24.6%	+705 -250 +650 -260	0 1	-0.37818-0.37395	-0.78062
06/08/2023 06:00 PM	Twente Sparta Rotterdam	36.6% 37.2%	26.2%	-110 +315 -115 +320	1 1	-1.32261-1.33044	-1.34128
06/04/2023 04:00 PM	Utrecht Sparta Rotterdam	46.3% 29.2%	24.4%	+140 +197 +150 +180	4 5	-1.12849-1.07960	-1.22980
06/04/2023 12:30 PM	Heerenveen Twente	36.5% 36.6%	26.8%	+635 -260 +615 -260	0 4	-0.37477-0.37494	-1.00392
06/01/2023 07:00 PM	Sparta Rotterdam Utrecht	22.2% 55.7%	22.1%	+320 -105 +305 -115	2 1	-1.47443-1.44949	-1.50544
06/01/2023 04:45 PM	Twente Heerenveen	29.2% 45.6%	25.2%	-105 +285 -120 +320	2 1	-0.71037-0.65514	-1.23128
05/28/2023 12:30 PM	PSV Eindhoven AZ Alkmaar	29.4% 45.6%	25.0%	+189 +143 +140 +170	2 1	-1.08868-0.92445	-1.22302
05/28/2023 12:30 PM	Vitesse Feyenoord	26.0% 49.2%	24.8%	+599 -275 +610 -280	1 0	-1.97876-2.01036	-1.34607
05/28/2023 12:30 PM	Emmen Utrecht	9.6% 75.6%	14.8%	+824 -330 +500 -210	2 3	-0.29425-0.44055	-0.27979
05/28/2023 12:30 PM	Sparta Rotterdam Groningen	22.2% 53.8%	24.0%	+122 +211 +115 +210	5 0	-0.83140-0.81507	-1.50458
05/28/2023 12:30 PM	Ajax Twente	79.0% 7.7%	13.3%	+114 +223 +105 +220	1 3	-1.19600-1.21224	-2.56110
05/27/2023 02:30 PM	VVV-Venlo Willem II	31.0% 44.0%	25.0%	+580 -220	2 2	-1.58533	-1.38697

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)	14.0	3.0	8.0	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)	14.0	5.0	7.0	49.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
5	Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)	13.0	8.0	5.0	44.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
6	Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)	12.0	8.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)	12.0	9.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)	10.0	10.0	6.0	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)	10.0	11.0	5.0	35.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)	8.0	9.0	9.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)	9.0	11.0	6.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)	9.0	12.0	5.0	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)	8.0	14.0	4.0	28.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)	7.0	13.0	6.0	27.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)	7.0	14.0	5.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)	6.0	12.0	8.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)	4.0	15.0	7.0	19.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
18	RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)	4.0	19.0	3.0	15.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.