Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated 5 days ago

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Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
05/21/2023 12:30 PM	Groningen Vitesse	26.9% 46.0%	27.1%	+614 -220 +600 -230	0 6	-0.40585-0.41228	-0.77614
05/21/2023 12:30 PM	Heerenveen PSV Eindhoven	15.4% 65.7%	18.9%	+1400 -494 +1075 -500	3 3	-2.05995-2.05948	-1.66633
05/21/2023 12:30 PM	Utrecht Ajax	7.8% 78.8%	13.4%	+848 -341 +735 -340	1 3	-0.29154-0.30659	-0.23871
05/21/2023 12:30 PM	Feyenoord Emmen	78.7% 7.8%	13.5%	-190 +491 -195 +460	3 1	-0.45462-0.46501	-0.23958
05/21/2023 12:30 PM	Twente RKC Waalwijk	55.8% 21.1%	23.1%	-130 +325 -125 +300	5 0	-0.60099-0.63605	-0.58306
05/14/2023 06:00 PM	Fortuna Sittard PSV Eindhoven	9.5% 76.2%	14.2%	+1959 -725 +1800 -1000	1 2	-0.15788-0.14660	-0.27181
05/14/2023 06:00 PM	Emmen AZ Alkmaar	4.2% 86.6%	9.2%	+867 -313 +775 -300	1 5	-0.30754-0.33930	-0.14439
05/13/2023 07:00 PM	RKC Waalwijk Utrecht	11.0% 72.2%	16.8%	+433 -165 +385 -165	0 2	-0.49699-0.52596	-0.32592
05/07/2023 02:45 PM	Vitesse Fortuna Sittard	56.4% 21.2%	22.4%	+125 +230 +120 +220	0 2	-1.21885-1.21073	-1.55117
05/07/2023 10:15 AM	Twente Emmen	59.9% 18.9%	21.2%	-138 +392 -135 +355	3 0	-0.57281-0.60373	-0.51204
05/06/2023 07:00 PM	AZ Alkmaar Ajax	18.5% 59.9%	21.6%	+370 -143 +380 -155	0 0	-1.48466-1.49709	-1.53438
05/06/2023 04:45 PM	PSV Eindhoven Sparta Rotterdam	66.1% 15.5%	18.4%	-178 +490 -195 +495	1 0	-0.47496-0.46401	-0.41412
04/23/2023 06:00 PM	RKC Waalwijk AZ Alkmaar	4.8% 84.6%	10.6%	+764 -290 +665 -265	0 3	-0.32580-0.37164	-0.16756
04/23/2023 02:45 PM	Utrecht Feyenoord	21.3% 56.2%	22.4%	+779 -276 +745 -300	1 3	-0.33871-0.33822	-0.57602
04/23/2023 12:30 PM	Ajax PSV Eindhoven	55.9% 21.7%	22.3%	+235 +115 +230 +105	0 3	-0.78594-0.76718	-1.52707
04/23/2023 10:15 AM	Sparta Rotterdam Twente	29.6% 45.8%	24.6%	+716 -232 +585 -210	3 3	-1.59623-1.53104	-1.40177

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)	14.0	3.0	8.0	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)	14.0	5.0	7.0	49.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
5	Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)	13.0	8.0	5.0	44.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
6	Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)	12.0	8.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)	12.0	9.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)	10.0	10.0	6.0	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)	10.0	11.0	5.0	35.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)	8.0	9.0	9.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)	9.0	11.0	6.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)	9.0	12.0	5.0	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)	8.0	14.0	4.0	28.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)	7.0	13.0	6.0	27.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)	7.0	14.0	5.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)	6.0	12.0	8.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)	4.0	15.0	7.0	19.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
18	RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)	4.0	19.0	3.0	15.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.