Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 2, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Zwolle
Heracles Almelo 		26.6%
48.9%		24.5%
+185
+143

1.14
1.63		2.77
o2¾-102
u2¾-115

AZ Alkmaar
Sparta Rotterdam 		68.9%
13.3%		17.7%
-133
+315

2.36
0.94		3.30
o3-122
u3¼-122

Twente
Groningen 		25.1%
49.0%		25.8%
+145
+188

1.01
1.51		2.52
o2½-110
u2½-105

Games for Nov 1, 2025
Games for Nov 3, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Sparta Rotterdam
Utrecht		22.2%
55.7%		22.1%
+340
-130
+350
-135
1
3		-0.61216-0.60296-0.58447
Ajax
Vitesse		67.1%
14.0%		19.0%
-155
+380
-155
+350
2
2		-1.57605-1.55504-1.66326
Fortuna Sittard
Heracles Almelo		26.4%
48.9%		24.6%
+153
+160
+165
+145
0
0		-1.37714-1.37259-1.40072
RKC Waalwijk
PSV Eindhoven		5.4%
83.7%		10.8%
+1600
-800
+1125
-580
1
3		-0.16439-0.20997-0.17755
Twente
Zwolle		40.2%
33.9%		25.8%
-270
+700
-340
+720
2
1		-0.34480-0.30986-0.91036
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam		41.0%
33.4%		25.6%
+370
-139
+335
-140
1
2		-0.57121-0.58906-1.09784
Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar		15.8%
64.5%		19.7%
+610
-238
+570
-245
3
3		-1.63712-1.69903-1.62633
PSV Eindhoven
Fortuna Sittard		69.4%
13.4%		17.2%
-310
+725
-365
+850
1
1		-1.79915-1.86795-1.76003
Sparta Rotterdam
Utrecht		22.2%
55.7%		22.1%
+300
-119
+330
-135
1
0		-1.43490-1.51113-1.50544
Vitesse
Heerenveen		43.3%
30.7%		26.0%
+420
-175
+380
-170
3
1		-1.69369-1.62030-0.83803
Zwolle
RKC Waalwijk		48.2%
27.0%		24.8%
+380
-159
+395
-170
1
1		-1.54754-1.56528-1.39453
Zwolle
Feyenoord		11.5%
72.0%		16.4%
+1900
-1150
+2000
-1150
0
5		-0.14251-0.13307-0.32782
Twente
AZ Alkmaar		11.2%
72.1%		16.6%
+245
+120
+230
+120
1
2		-0.82624-0.83884-0.32660
Vitesse
Utrecht		38.4%
34.9%		26.8%
+890
-360
+875
-370
0
1		-0.28422-0.29030-1.05389
RKC Waalwijk
Heracles Almelo		15.7%
63.4%		20.9%
+195
+133
+200
+120
5
0		-1.10933-1.14841-1.85068
Sparta Rotterdam
PSV Eindhoven		11.0%
73.6%		15.4%
+1500
-714
+1640
-800
2
4		-0.17396-0.16864-0.30693
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.87723 
Sportsbooks20-0-1 (0.750)2 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-1.18978
-0.31256

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.