Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated 5 days ago

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Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
04/22/2023 04:45 PM	Emmen Heerenveen	11.6% 71.6%	16.7%	+458 -146 +420 -145	3 2	-1.75112-1.69489	-2.15038
04/16/2023 06:00 PM	Emmen Ajax	2.5% 91.3%	6.2%	+2316 -827 +2000 -950	1 3	-0.14033-0.14881	-0.09106
04/16/2023 06:00 PM	AZ Alkmaar Fortuna Sittard	71.7% 11.6%	16.7%	-140 +420 -140 +365	3 0	-0.56129-0.58625	-0.33222
04/16/2023 12:30 PM	Twente Utrecht	25.3% 50.9%	23.8%	+120 +247 +120 +220	0 1	-1.26372-1.21456	-0.67531
04/15/2023 07:00 PM	Heerenveen Sparta Rotterdam	41.0% 33.4%	25.6%	+215 +146 +210 +130	0 4	-0.92238-0.88312	-1.09784
04/15/2023 04:45 PM	Groningen RKC Waalwijk	62.3% 15.5%	22.1%	+300 +101 +295 -110	1 2	-0.71576-0.69631	-1.86169
04/09/2023 06:00 PM	RKC Waalwijk Feyenoord	6.5% 80.9%	12.6%	+1729 -625 +1400 -650	1 5	-0.17760-0.19283	-0.21249
04/09/2023 02:45 PM	Fortuna Sittard Ajax	4.2% 86.8%	8.9%	+1606 -675 +1650 -850	0 4	-0.16493-0.16180	-0.14137
04/08/2023 06:00 PM	Sparta Rotterdam AZ Alkmaar	9.5% 75.7%	14.7%	+509 -170 +490 -175	1 0	-1.83866-1.82350	-2.35104
04/07/2023 06:00 PM	Utrecht Groningen	32.4% 39.9%	27.7%	+132 +218 +130 +205	2 1	-0.86764-0.88015	-1.12726
04/02/2023 02:45 PM	Groningen Fortuna Sittard	48.5% 25.9%	25.6%	+226 +125 +230 +115	1 3	-0.83949-0.81792	-1.35201
04/02/2023 12:30 PM	Feyenoord Sparta Rotterdam	61.1% 18.3%	20.6%	-205 +660 -200 +575	3 1	-0.42681-0.45703	-0.49192
04/01/2023 07:00 PM	Vitesse RKC Waalwijk	69.7% 12.2%	18.1%	+174 +166 +160 +170	0 1	-1.00458-1.04120	-2.10513
04/01/2023 02:30 PM	Heerenveen AZ Alkmaar	13.2% 68.5%	18.3%	+493 -168 +480 -180	1 1	-1.49700-1.48704	-1.70040
03/19/2023 07:00 PM	AZ Alkmaar Twente	64.7% 15.6%	19.7%	+240 +125 +240 +120	1 2	-0.83573-0.83884	-1.85796
03/19/2023 03:45 PM	PSV Eindhoven Vitesse	45.1% 29.8%	25.1%	-189 +530 -190 +520	1 1	-1.55741-1.49736	-1.38218

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)	14.0	3.0	8.0	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)	14.0	5.0	7.0	49.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
5	Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)	13.0	8.0	5.0	44.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
6	Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)	12.0	8.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)	12.0	9.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)	10.0	10.0	6.0	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)	10.0	11.0	5.0	35.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)	8.0	9.0	9.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)	9.0	11.0	6.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)	9.0	12.0	5.0	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)	8.0	14.0	4.0	28.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)	7.0	13.0	6.0	27.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)	7.0	14.0	5.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)	6.0	12.0	8.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)	4.0	15.0	7.0	19.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
18	RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)	4.0	19.0	3.0	15.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.