Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 23, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Heracles Almelo
Groningen 		24.8%
48.6%		26.6%
+290
+100

0.95
1.45		2.40
o2¼-111
u2¼-102

Games for Apr 22, 2025
Games for Apr 24, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
PSV Eindhoven
AZ Alkmaar		29.4%
45.6%		25.0%
-125
+342
-120
+315
4
0		-0.61608-0.65452-1.22302
Zwolle
Ajax		4.2%
86.9%		8.9%
+1075
-448
+1000
-475
2
2		-2.05136-2.06404-2.42058
Feyenoord
Heracles Almelo		56.0%
20.8%		23.1%
-533
+1100
-500
+1100
4
0		-0.22107-0.23110-0.57930
Twente
Sparta Rotterdam		36.6%
37.2%		26.2%
-113
+330
-125
+340
2
2		-1.37642-1.36008-1.34128
RKC Waalwijk
Utrecht		11.0%
72.2%		16.8%
+360
-127
+350
-130
1
1		-1.40328-1.38438-1.78546
Heracles Almelo
Vitesse		20.4%
56.6%		23.0%
+225
+120
+220
+120
0
2		-0.82768-0.83605-0.56900
RKC Waalwijk
Fortuna Sittard		20.5%
57.1%		22.4%
+250
+110
+260
+105
0
1		-0.77936-0.76787-0.56030
Sparta Rotterdam
Ajax		4.8%
85.6%		9.6%
+610
-265
+650
-280
1
2		-0.36772-0.35608-0.15559
Heerenveen
PSV Eindhoven		15.4%
65.7%		18.9%
+1250
-600
+1350
-650
0
2		-0.20186-0.19502-0.41957
Utrecht
Sparta Rotterdam		46.3%
29.2%		24.4%
+195
+140
+200
+140
2
1		-1.13038-1.14599-0.76977
RKC Waalwijk
Zwolle		20.4%
57.4%		22.2%
+257
+105
+260
+100
2
1		-1.31004-1.33139-1.59145
Vitesse
Ajax		10.0%
74.0%		15.9%
+700
-315
+765
-335
0
5		-0.32128-0.31229-0.30063
PSV Eindhoven
Twente		61.6%
18.1%		20.3%
+100
+265
+105
+240
3
0		-0.73714-0.76873-0.48415
Fortuna Sittard
Heerenveen		23.0%
54.2%		22.9%
+315
-105
+285
-105
0
3		-0.70716-0.72128-0.61306
AZ Alkmaar
Feyenoord		40.5%
32.9%		26.7%
+555
-205
+550
-220
0
1		-0.43863-0.42318-1.11270
Zwolle
PSV Eindhoven		9.6%
76.1%		14.3%
+2500
-1500
+2300
-1100
0
4		-0.11336-0.13509-0.27360
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.31759 
Sportsbooks10-0-0 (0.500)1 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-2.21128
-0.89369

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.