Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Heracles Almelo
Sparta Rotterdam		36.1%
37.1%		26.8%
+400
-141
+410
-170
2
1		-1.64693-1.68088-1.01838
Twente
Heerenveen		29.2%
45.6%		25.2%
-116
+310
-105
+275
3
3		-1.36826-1.35631-1.37745
Zwolle
Utrecht		19.6%
59.5%		20.9%
+630
-227
+600
-230
1
5		-0.41244-0.41015-0.51940
AZ Alkmaar
Heracles Almelo		64.2%
15.5%		20.3%
-230
+690
-225
+600
0
5		-2.10472-1.99709-1.86304
Sparta Rotterdam
Vitesse		17.8%
61.6%		20.6%
+135
+192
+140
+185
4
1		-0.90291-0.92352-1.72429
Heracles Almelo
Twente		32.4%
40.9%		26.6%
+1250
-500
+1350
-550
0
1		-0.23136-0.21609-0.89345
Utrecht
Feyenoord		21.3%
56.2%		22.4%
+890
-345
+850
-350
2
4		-0.30496-0.29982-0.57602
Ajax
Zwolle		83.4%
5.7%		10.9%
-164
+400
-180
+450
3
1		-0.52342-0.49248-0.18164
Vitesse
AZ Alkmaar		19.8%
57.7%		22.5%
+1200
-455
+1225
-500
0
2		-0.24580-0.23270-0.55002
Heerenveen
RKC Waalwijk		60.0%
18.2%		21.8%
+140
+182
+140
+190
1
1		-1.33899-1.28844-1.52468
Fortuna Sittard
Sparta Rotterdam		29.9%
45.7%		24.4%
+230
+125
+225
+125
0
4		-0.85170-0.86034-0.78237
Twente
PSV Eindhoven		13.0%
69.7%		17.3%
+625
-260
+625
-250
0
1		-0.37309-0.38737-0.36088
Ajax
Sparta Rotterdam		81.6%
6.6%		11.8%
+120
+225
+115
+230
2
2		-1.30993-1.31557-2.13843
Feyenoord
Heerenveen		51.8%
24.2%		23.9%
-240
+600
-245
+590
3
2		-0.39591-0.39402-0.65709
Zwolle
Fortuna Sittard		33.3%
41.4%		25.3%
+365
-135
+380
-140
1
3		-0.60369-0.58913-0.88211
Heracles Almelo
Feyenoord		15.4%
64.5%		20.1%
+2200
-1300
+2200
-1400
0
3		-0.11920-0.11863-0.43838
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.96554 
Sportsbooks30-0-1 (0.667)3 
DRatings32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.81382
0.15172

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.