Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated 5 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
02/24/2023 07:00 PM	Utrecht Sparta Rotterdam	46.3% 29.2%	24.4%	+152 +192 +165 +175	3 0	-0.97017-1.02666	-0.76977
02/19/2023 03:45 PM	Sparta Rotterdam Ajax	4.8% 85.6%	9.6%	+1140 -413 +1140 -435	0 4	-0.25608-0.25687	-0.15559
02/19/2023 01:30 PM	PSV Eindhoven Utrecht	52.2% 24.7%	23.0%	+101 +285 +100 +250	2 2	-1.32750-1.37279	-1.46859
02/18/2023 08:00 PM	AZ Alkmaar Feyenoord	40.5% 32.9%	26.7%	+325 -115 +300 -115	1 2	-0.65195-0.67598	-1.11270
02/18/2023 05:45 PM	Emmen Groningen	10.0% 73.2%	16.8%	+211 +150 +200 +145	1 1	-1.19882-1.22670	-1.78082
02/17/2023 07:00 PM	Fortuna Sittard RKC Waalwijk	48.0% 27.1%	24.9%	+251 +118 +220 +120	1 3	-0.79897-0.83986	-1.30615
02/12/2023 03:45 PM	RKC Waalwijk Ajax	2.8% 90.1%	7.1%	+1858 -650 +1750 -700	1 3	-0.16953-0.18257	-0.10439
02/12/2023 01:30 PM	Feyenoord Heerenveen	51.8% 24.2%	23.9%	-180 +480 -170 +460	2 1	-0.48854-0.51341	-0.65709
02/12/2023 01:30 PM	Utrecht Vitesse	27.5% 47.5%	25.0%	+175 +156 +170 +155	0 2	-0.97456-0.98714	-0.74497
02/11/2023 08:00 PM	Fortuna Sittard Emmen	52.1% 24.6%	23.3%	+240 +128 +225 +125	1 0	-1.25026-1.22806	-0.65254
02/11/2023 07:00 PM	Groningen PSV Eindhoven	18.2% 59.7%	22.1%	+1175 -394 +1100 -450	0 6	-0.25840-0.24914	-0.51663
02/05/2023 03:45 PM	Twente Groningen	25.1% 49.0%	25.8%	-162 +518 -170 +500	1 1	-1.42541-1.42205	-1.35321
02/05/2023 01:30 PM	PSV Eindhoven Feyenoord	36.8% 36.8%	26.4%	+203 +146 +190 +145	2 2	-1.26649-1.25917	-1.33044
02/04/2023 07:00 PM	Vitesse Emmen	73.1% 10.7%	16.2%	+153 +211 +155 +185	2 2	-1.19852-1.22816	-1.82115
02/04/2023 07:00 PM	Heerenveen Utrecht	28.8% 46.2%	25.0%	+456 -149 +400 -140	0 1	-0.54259-0.58780	-0.77234
02/03/2023 07:00 PM	Sparta Rotterdam Fortuna Sittard	36.5% 37.6%	25.9%	+197 +155 +195 +150	0 0	-1.20367-1.21335	-1.35282

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)	14.0	3.0	8.0	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)	14.0	5.0	7.0	49.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
5	Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)	13.0	8.0	5.0	44.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
6	Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)	12.0	8.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)	12.0	9.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)	10.0	10.0	6.0	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)	10.0	11.0	5.0	35.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)	8.0	9.0	9.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)	9.0	11.0	6.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)	9.0	12.0	5.0	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)	8.0	14.0	4.0	28.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)	7.0	13.0	6.0	27.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)	7.0	14.0	5.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)	6.0	12.0	8.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)	4.0	15.0	7.0	19.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
18	RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)	4.0	19.0	3.0	15.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.