Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated 5 days ago

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Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
10/23/2022 02:45 PM	Sparta Rotterdam Utrecht	22.2% 55.7%	22.1%	+309 +100 +290 -110	1 3	-0.71519-0.69941	-0.58447
10/23/2022 12:30 PM	PSV Eindhoven Groningen	50.8% 24.3%	24.9%	-350 +1079 -340 +930	2 4	-2.49605-2.38249	-1.41469
10/22/2022 07:00 PM	Emmen Vitesse	7.6% 79.0%	13.4%	+387 -125 +375 -135	1 2	-0.61155-0.60468	-0.23594
10/22/2022 04:45 PM	Ajax RKC Waalwijk	88.0% 3.5%	8.5%	-325 +805 -350 +825	4 1	-0.29806-0.29993	-0.12799
10/22/2022 02:30 PM	Fortuna Sittard Feyenoord	11.4% 72.2%	16.4%	+1217 -450 +1125 -485	1 1	-2.06144-2.01029	-1.81021
10/16/2022 02:45 PM	Feyenoord AZ Alkmaar	25.7% 49.6%	24.7%	+184 +147 +170 +140	3 1	-1.06857-1.04557	-1.35837
10/16/2022 12:30 PM	Utrecht PSV Eindhoven	18.3% 61.4%	20.3%	+872 -315 +700 -310	1 6	-0.30608-0.33170	-0.48789
10/16/2022 12:30 PM	Groningen Twente	40.1% 32.0%	27.9%	+730 -243 +700 -260	0 3	-0.37089-0.37545	-1.14025
10/15/2022 04:45 PM	RKC Waalwijk Fortuna Sittard	20.5% 57.1%	22.4%	+194 +138 +185 +130	0 0	-1.34834-1.38266	-1.49606
10/09/2022 06:00 PM	Fortuna Sittard Vitesse	15.5% 65.0%	19.4%	+425 -155 +375 -145	2 1	-1.68099-1.60624	-1.86143
10/09/2022 02:45 PM	PSV Eindhoven Heerenveen	57.1% 21.0%	21.9%	-151 +413 -170 +420	1 0	-0.53789-0.51316	-0.56021
10/09/2022 12:30 PM	AZ Alkmaar Utrecht	55.9% 21.5%	22.6%	+145 +193 +130 +195	2 1	-0.92296-0.88317	-0.58239
10/09/2022 12:30 PM	Twente Feyenoord	15.4% 65.0%	19.5%	+339 -120 +315 -125	0 2	-0.63537-0.63936	-0.43043
10/08/2022 04:45 PM	Emmen Sparta Rotterdam	15.9% 64.9%	19.1%	+270 +121 +270 +110	1 3	-0.80142-0.79025	-0.43160
10/07/2022 06:00 PM	RKC Waalwijk Groningen	11.4% 69.6%	19.0%	+239 +126 +230 +115	3 2	-1.22997-1.24258	-2.17428
10/02/2022 06:00 PM	Heerenveen Emmen	64.0% 16.2%	19.8%	+156 +187 +170 +165	0 0	-1.26688-1.24344	-1.61868

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)	14.0	3.0	8.0	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)	14.0	5.0	7.0	49.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
5	Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)	13.0	8.0	5.0	44.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
6	Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)	12.0	8.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)	12.0	9.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)	10.0	10.0	6.0	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)	10.0	11.0	5.0	35.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)	8.0	9.0	9.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)	9.0	11.0	6.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)	9.0	12.0	5.0	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)	8.0	14.0	4.0	28.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)	7.0	13.0	6.0	27.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)	7.0	14.0	5.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)	6.0	12.0	8.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)	4.0	15.0	7.0	19.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
18	RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)	4.0	19.0	3.0	15.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.