Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated 5 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
10/02/2022 02:45 PM	Sparta Rotterdam RKC Waalwijk	52.1% 24.1%	23.8%	+321 -109 +260 +105	2 2	-1.34519-1.30280	-1.43544
10/01/2022 07:00 PM	Vitesse Twente	47.9% 27.2%	24.9%	+383 -130 +400 -150	0 3	-0.59564-0.55961	-1.30214
10/01/2022 04:45 PM	AZ Alkmaar Groningen	54.1% 21.3%	24.7%	-133 +425 -135 +400	4 1	-0.58150-0.60525	-0.61469
09/18/2022 02:45 PM	Ajax AZ Alkmaar	50.9% 24.7%	24.3%	-130 +400 -150 +375	1 2	-1.61853-1.60834	-1.39675
09/18/2022 12:30 PM	Twente Heerenveen	29.2% 45.6%	25.2%	+139 +216 +140 +195	1 2	-1.17746-1.13457	-0.78570
09/18/2022 12:30 PM	Feyenoord PSV Eindhoven	29.2% 45.9%	24.9%	+282 -110 +280 -115	3 4	-0.67172-0.67564	-0.77873
09/17/2022 02:30 PM	Groningen Sparta Rotterdam	44.7% 28.9%	26.4%	+237 +134 +230 +125	1 2	-0.86819-0.86022	-1.24109
09/11/2022 06:00 PM	Sparta Rotterdam Feyenoord	13.2% 69.3%	17.5%	+976 -335 +875 -350	0 3	-0.28943-0.30132	-0.36736
09/11/2022 02:45 PM	Twente AZ Alkmaar	11.2% 72.1%	16.6%	+287 +105 +275 +100	1 1	-1.30262-1.30383	-1.79444
09/11/2022 12:30 PM	RKC Waalwijk PSV Eindhoven	5.4% 83.7%	10.8%	+1200 -479 +1250 -550	0 1	-0.22229-0.21756	-0.17755
09/11/2022 10:15 AM	Vitesse Utrecht	38.4% 34.9%	26.8%	+265 +105 +285 -115	0 1	-0.73980-0.67548	-1.05389
09/10/2022 04:45 PM	Heerenveen Ajax	6.6% 81.3%	12.2%	+1296 -475 +1100 -500	0 5	-0.21570-0.23110	-0.20722
09/04/2022 02:45 PM	Vitesse Groningen	37.3% 33.7%	29.0%	+192 +154 +185 +145	1 0	-1.09643-1.09910	-0.98513
09/04/2022 12:30 PM	AZ Alkmaar Emmen	83.1% 5.7%	11.2%	-104 +305 -115 +300	3 0	-0.70913-0.67598	-0.18547
09/03/2022 04:45 PM	PSV Eindhoven Twente	61.6% 18.1%	20.3%	-126 +352 -140 +360	1 2	-1.53090-1.57852	-1.71125
09/02/2022 06:00 PM	Utrecht Fortuna Sittard	50.3% 26.1%	23.6%	+111 +243 +115 +215	4 3	-0.77360-0.81697	-0.68720

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)	14.0	3.0	8.0	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)	14.0	5.0	7.0	49.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
5	Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)	13.0	8.0	5.0	44.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
6	Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)	12.0	8.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)	12.0	9.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)	10.0	10.0	6.0	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)	10.0	11.0	5.0	35.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)	8.0	9.0	9.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)	9.0	11.0	6.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)	9.0	12.0	5.0	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)	8.0	14.0	4.0	28.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)	7.0	13.0	6.0	27.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)	7.0	14.0	5.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)	6.0	12.0	8.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)	4.0	15.0	7.0	19.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
18	RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)	4.0	19.0	3.0	15.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.