Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated 5 days ago

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Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
08/28/2022 10:15 AM	Ajax Utrecht	72.8% 11.0%	16.2%	-217 +550 -230 +520	2 0	-0.40572-0.41211	-0.31728
08/27/2022 07:00 PM	Fortuna Sittard Heerenveen	23.0% 54.2%	22.9%	+446 -153 +425 -160	1 2	-0.52862-0.53408	-0.61306
08/27/2022 06:00 PM	Emmen Feyenoord	5.7% 83.3%	11.0%	+954 -337 +850 -335	0 4	-0.28964-0.30933	-0.18293
08/27/2022 04:45 PM	RKC Waalwijk Vitesse	8.8% 76.0%	15.2%	+356 -117 +340 -120	2 2	-1.35833-1.33018	-1.88480
08/21/2022 02:45 PM	Feyenoord RKC Waalwijk	75.7% 9.0%	15.3%	-244 +642 -250 +620	1 0	-0.37535-0.38455	-0.27810
08/21/2022 12:30 PM	Ajax Sparta Rotterdam	81.6% 6.6%	11.8%	-392 +1167 -400 +1000	1 0	-0.25864-0.27279	-0.20281
08/20/2022 07:00 PM	Utrecht Emmen	68.8% 13.5%	17.8%	+155 +187 +150 +180	2 3	-1.07634-1.07960	-2.00493
08/20/2022 02:30 PM	Heerenveen Vitesse	23.7% 52.5%	23.8%	+230 +128 +240 +115	4 0	-1.21777-1.27576	-1.43948
08/14/2022 02:45 PM	AZ Alkmaar Sparta Rotterdam	68.9% 13.3%	17.7%	-105 +326 -110 +310	3 2	-0.69728-0.69485	-0.37198
08/14/2022 12:30 PM	Fortuna Sittard Twente	26.3% 49.7%	24.0%	+675 -200 +600 -220	0 3	-0.40949-0.42593	-0.69997
08/14/2022 12:30 PM	Groningen Ajax	8.1% 76.7%	15.2%	+1559 -638 +1500 -650	1 6	-0.17992-0.19225	-0.26558
08/13/2022 07:00 PM	Heerenveen Feyenoord	18.1% 60.8%	21.1%	+820 -335 +825 -350	0 0	-1.80060-1.85694	-1.55391
08/13/2022 06:00 PM	RKC Waalwijk Emmen	35.3% 37.4%	27.3%	+244 +110 +265 +100	1 1	-1.32463-1.33139	-1.29850
08/07/2022 12:30 PM	Feyenoord Vitesse	40.0% 33.2%	26.8%	+100 +304 -125 +305	5 2	-0.69511-0.63892	-0.91557
08/06/2022 07:00 PM	Utrecht RKC Waalwijk	64.8% 15.3%	19.9%	-105 +306 -110 +285	2 2	-1.34661-1.37074	-1.61636
08/06/2022 06:00 PM	Emmen PSV Eindhoven	4.8% 85.8%	9.4%	+1400 -480 +1125 -475	1 4	-0.20635-0.24039	-0.15316

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)	14.0	3.0	8.0	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)	14.0	5.0	7.0	49.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
5	Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)	13.0	8.0	5.0	44.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
6	Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)	12.0	8.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)	12.0	9.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)	10.0	10.0	6.0	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)	10.0	11.0	5.0	35.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)	8.0	9.0	9.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)	9.0	11.0	6.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)	9.0	12.0	5.0	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)	8.0	14.0	4.0	28.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)	7.0	13.0	6.0	27.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)	7.0	14.0	5.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)	6.0	12.0	8.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)	4.0	15.0	7.0	19.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
18	RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)	4.0	19.0	3.0	15.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.