Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Ajax
Fortuna Sittard		83.3%
5.7%		10.9%
-407
+1041
-415
+975
3
2		-0.25503-0.26724-0.18221
Sparta Rotterdam
Heerenveen		25.9%
50.4%		23.7%
+335
+100
+310
-110
0
0		-1.28049-1.31517-1.44134
Vitesse
AZ Alkmaar		19.8%
57.7%		22.5%
+388
-138
+420
-160
1
6		-0.57618-0.53582-0.55002
AZ Alkmaar
Vitesse		48.7%
26.2%		25.1%
+165
+196
+160
+190
1
2		-1.10969-1.11541-1.34002
Utrecht
Vitesse		27.5%
47.5%		25.0%
+245
+115
+210
+120
0
3		-0.77744-0.83829-0.74497
Heerenveen
AZ Alkmaar		13.2%
68.5%		18.3%
+463
-155
+450
-170
0
2		-0.52335-0.51371-0.37853
Vitesse
Utrecht		38.4%
34.9%		26.8%
+280
+103
+240
+110
1
3		-0.73662-0.79264-1.05389
AZ Alkmaar
Heerenveen		60.4%
18.2%		21.3%
+153
+200
+140
+210
2
3		-1.12710-1.18185-1.70249
Utrecht
Willem II		48.8%
27.0%		24.2%
+214
+121
+215
+110
0
3		-0.81935-0.79396-1.30915
Ajax
Vitesse		67.1%
14.0%		19.0%
-175
+385
-190
+450
2
2		-1.61828-1.58763-1.66326
PSV Eindhoven
Zwolle		69.2%
13.5%		17.3%
-238
+634
-220
+475
2
1		-0.37603-0.42528-0.36833
Sparta Rotterdam
Heracles Almelo		29.6%
45.1%		25.2%
+250
+145
+245
+140
3
1		-1.27533-1.28844-1.21729
Twente
Feyenoord		15.4%
65.0%		19.5%
+539
-214
+500
-220
2
1		-1.88466-1.84263-1.86808
RKC Waalwijk
AZ Alkmaar		4.8%
84.6%		10.6%
+1068
-417
+975
-420
3
1		-2.49157-2.42588-3.03136
AZ Alkmaar
Utrecht		55.9%
21.5%		22.6%
+127
+203
+115
+210
2
2		-1.40666-1.38462-1.48687
Groningen
Twente		40.1%
32.0%		27.9%
+621
-198
+620
-220
0
3		-0.43581-0.42216-1.14025
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.