Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Fortuna Sittard
Heracles Almelo		30.5%
46.1%		23.4%
+395
-141
+410
-150
1
3		-0.57860-0.56198-0.77483
Twente
Sparta Rotterdam		37.9%
38.3%		23.8%
+191
+170
+180
+160
1
0		-1.09339-1.07790-0.97022
Vitesse
PSV Eindhoven		28.1%
50.0%		22.0%
+500
-192
+525
-200
0
2		-0.46416-0.45319-0.69385
AZ Alkmaar
Feyenoord		40.3%
35.0%		24.8%
+290
-110
+290
-115
0
1		-0.69245-0.67548-1.05048
Utrecht
Vitesse		31.3%
45.1%		23.6%
+145
+187
+140
+180
1
2		-1.09112-1.07993-0.79680
PSV Eindhoven
Fortuna Sittard		61.9%
21.1%		17.0%
-312
+860
-320
+840
4
1		-0.32361-0.32083-0.47928
RKC Waalwijk
Groningen		17.7%
62.6%		19.7%
+375
-130
+355
-125
1
1		-1.36920-1.33268-1.62465
Sparta Rotterdam
Willem II		36.9%
39.3%		23.7%
+196
+150
+210
+135
3
0		-1.12089-1.17697-0.99563
Heracles Almelo
Twente		34.7%
40.6%		24.7%
+245
+123
+230
+125
0
1		-0.83057-0.86022-0.90108
AZ Alkmaar
Groningen		49.8%
26.2%		24.0%
-115
+320
-110
+315
0
2		-1.49210-1.47238-1.33796
PSV Eindhoven
Ajax		23.0%
58.1%		18.9%
+570
-240
+530
-230
0
5		-0.38145-0.41149-0.54378
Sparta Rotterdam
RKC Waalwijk		48.3%
28.9%		22.8%
+165
+173
+150
+180
0
1		-1.04055-1.07960-1.24043
Heracles Almelo
Zwolle		39.8%
35.8%		24.4%
+143
+205
+120
+225
0
1		-1.15407-1.22946-1.02711
Heerenveen
Utrecht		32.2%
44.2%		23.6%
+603
-250
+575
-225
1
2		-0.38069-0.41746-0.81620
Fortuna Sittard
Willem II		34.5%
41.8%		23.7%
+311
-110
+320
-120
1
1		-1.37460-1.37074-1.44045
Willem II
Twente		31.2%
45.6%		23.2%
+440
-144
+440
-150
1
1		-1.43004-1.37231-1.46024
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.