Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Utrecht
Twente 		41.6%
32.6%		25.8%
+460
-169

1.43
1.24		2.67
o2¾-115
u2¾-105

Heracles Almelo
AZ Alkmaar 		11.2%
71.6%		17.2%
+610
-240

0.81
2.33		3.14
o3-115
u3-104

Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Emmen
Fortuna Sittard		18.3%
61.2%		20.5%
+213
+144
+195
+145
1
0		-1.16677-1.13075-1.69898
Sparta Rotterdam
Vitesse		17.8%
61.6%		20.6%
+271
+113
+255
+110
4
0		-1.33789-1.31763-1.72429
Sparta Rotterdam
Utrecht		22.2%
55.7%		22.1%
+309
+100
+290
-110
1
3		-0.71519-0.69941-0.58447
PSV Eindhoven
Groningen		50.8%
24.3%		24.9%
-350
+1079
-340
+930
2
4		-2.49605-2.38249-1.41469
Emmen
Vitesse		7.6%
79.0%		13.4%
+387
-125
+375
-135
1
2		-0.61155-0.60468-0.23594
Ajax
RKC Waalwijk		88.0%
3.5%		8.5%
-325
+805
-350
+825
4
1		-0.29806-0.29993-0.12799
Fortuna Sittard
Feyenoord		11.4%
72.2%		16.4%
+1217
-450
+1125
-485
1
1		-2.06144-2.01029-1.81021
Feyenoord
AZ Alkmaar		25.7%
49.6%		24.7%
+184
+147
+170
+140
3
1		-1.06857-1.04557-1.35837
Utrecht
PSV Eindhoven		18.3%
61.4%		20.3%
+872
-315
+700
-310
1
6		-0.30608-0.33170-0.48789
Groningen
Twente		40.1%
32.0%		27.9%
+730
-243
+700
-260
0
3		-0.37089-0.37545-1.14025
RKC Waalwijk
Fortuna Sittard		20.5%
57.1%		22.4%
+194
+138
+185
+130
0
0		-1.34834-1.38266-1.49606
Fortuna Sittard
Vitesse		15.5%
65.0%		19.4%
+425
-155
+375
-145
2
1		-1.68099-1.60624-1.86143
PSV Eindhoven
Heerenveen		57.1%
21.0%		21.9%
-151
+413
-170
+420
1
0		-0.53789-0.51316-0.56021
AZ Alkmaar
Utrecht		55.9%
21.5%		22.6%
+145
+193
+130
+195
2
1		-0.92296-0.88317-0.58239
Twente
Feyenoord		15.4%
65.0%		19.5%
+339
-120
+315
-125
0
2		-0.63537-0.63936-0.43043
Emmen
Sparta Rotterdam		15.9%
64.9%		19.1%
+270
+121
+270
+110
1
3		-0.80142-0.79025-0.43160
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.59352 
Sportsbooks10-0-0 (0.500)1 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.15559
0.43793

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.