Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Utrecht
Twente 		41.6%
32.6%		25.8%
+425
-154

1.43
1.24		2.67
o2¾-112
u3-138

Heracles Almelo
AZ Alkmaar 		11.2%
71.6%		17.2%
+650
-250

0.81
2.33		3.14
o3-122
u3+103

Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
RKC Waalwijk
Groningen		11.4%
69.6%		19.0%
+239
+126
+230
+115
3
2		-1.22997-1.24258-2.17428
Heerenveen
Emmen		64.0%
16.2%		19.8%
+156
+187
+170
+165
0
0		-1.26688-1.24344-1.61868
Sparta Rotterdam
RKC Waalwijk		52.1%
24.1%		23.8%
+321
-109
+260
+105
2
2		-1.34519-1.30280-1.43544
Vitesse
Twente		47.9%
27.2%		24.9%
+383
-130
+400
-150
0
3		-0.59564-0.55961-1.30214
AZ Alkmaar
Groningen		54.1%
21.3%		24.7%
-133
+425
-135
+400
4
1		-0.58150-0.60525-0.61469
Ajax
AZ Alkmaar		50.9%
24.7%		24.3%
-130
+400
-150
+375
1
2		-1.61853-1.60834-1.39675
Twente
Heerenveen		29.2%
45.6%		25.2%
+139
+216
+140
+195
1
2		-1.17746-1.13457-0.78570
Feyenoord
PSV Eindhoven		29.2%
45.9%		24.9%
+282
-110
+280
-115
3
4		-0.67172-0.67564-0.77873
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam		44.7%
28.9%		26.4%
+237
+134
+230
+125
1
2		-0.86819-0.86022-1.24109
Sparta Rotterdam
Feyenoord		13.2%
69.3%		17.5%
+976
-335
+875
-350
0
3		-0.28943-0.30132-0.36736
Twente
AZ Alkmaar		11.2%
72.1%		16.6%
+287
+105
+275
+100
1
1		-1.30262-1.30383-1.79444
RKC Waalwijk
PSV Eindhoven		5.4%
83.7%		10.8%
+1200
-479
+1250
-550
0
1		-0.22229-0.21756-0.17755
Vitesse
Utrecht		38.4%
34.9%		26.8%
+265
+105
+285
-115
0
1		-0.73980-0.67548-1.05389
Heerenveen
Ajax		6.6%
81.3%		12.2%
+1296
-475
+1100
-500
0
5		-0.21570-0.23110-0.20722
Vitesse
Groningen		37.3%
33.7%		29.0%
+192
+154
+185
+145
1
0		-1.09643-1.09910-0.98513
AZ Alkmaar
Emmen		83.1%
5.7%		11.2%
-104
+305
-115
+300
3
0		-0.70913-0.67598-0.18547
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.59352 
Sportsbooks10-0-0 (0.500)1 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.15559
0.43793

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.