Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Groningen
Utrecht		33.3%
39.0%		27.7%
+499
-165
+525
-180
0
1		-0.50053-0.49335-0.94204
Fortuna Sittard
Willem II		33.8%
40.9%		25.3%
+400
-159
+390
-170
1
2		-0.51827-0.51473-0.89355
Emmen
VVV-Venlo		25.6%
54.4%		20.0%
-182
+475
-160
+380
4
0		-0.46389-0.53524-1.36344
Ajax
Vitesse		61.1%
21.3%		17.6%
-256
+610
-175
+430
3
1		-0.36755-0.50297-0.49321
Sparta Rotterdam
Heerenveen		30.1%
46.6%		23.4%
+123
+220
+110
+210
2
1		-0.81789-0.79880-1.20217
Groningen
Zwolle		45.0%
29.5%		25.4%
+150
+176
+155
+155
0
1		-1.05306-0.99274-1.21915
RKC Waalwijk
Feyenoord		13.2%
76.7%		10.1%
+840
-316
+575
-220
0
3		-0.29459-0.42638-0.26539
PSV Eindhoven
Utrecht		48.0%
29.3%		22.7%
+126
+198
+100
+240
1
1		-0.98688-1.01091-0.97998
ADO Den Haag
Twente		21.1%
62.0%		17.0%
+480
-192
+400
-170
2
3		-0.45599-0.51318-0.47870
Heracles Almelo
AZ Alkmaar		18.7%
65.8%		15.5%
+450
-172
+410
-170
0
5		-0.48444-0.51673-0.41911
Utrecht
Sparta Rotterdam		43.6%
32.1%		24.3%
+122
+206
+120
+205
0
0		-1.00438-0.99971-0.98310
Twente
RKC Waalwijk		51.0%
26.5%		22.5%
+135
+197
+170
+155
1
2		-1.12341-0.98321-1.32727
Zwolle
PSV Eindhoven		17.8%
70.1%		12.1%
+1733
-700
+1650
-600
2
4		-0.17435-0.20505-0.35516
Feyenoord
Heracles Almelo		51.1%
26.3%		22.5%
-102
+255
-105
+265
1
1		-1.00292-1.03004-1.00260
Vitesse
Fortuna Sittard		51.4%
26.8%		21.8%
-105
+274
-110
+280
3
3		-1.03133-1.04306-0.99090
AZ Alkmaar
Groningen		49.6%
26.2%		24.2%
-156
+460
-160
+450
0
0		-1.14040-1.14734-1.02048
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.