Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated 7 days ago

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Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
05/13/2021 12:30 PM	Heerenveen Emmen	58.0% 23.3%	18.7%	+225 +115 +230 +110	1 3	-0.80419-0.79025	-1.45676
05/13/2021 12:30 PM	VVV-Venlo Ajax	9.5% 85.0%	5.5%	+2000 -769 +2000 -950	1 3	-0.14543-0.15114	-0.16284
05/13/2021 12:30 PM	Willem II ADO Den Haag	48.7% 28.1%	23.2%	-102 +262 -105 +250	4 1	-0.72021-0.71885	-0.71890
05/09/2021 02:45 PM	PSV Eindhoven Willem II	61.7% 21.9%	16.4%	-204 +525 -205 +540	2 0	-0.43547-0.44666	-0.48349
05/09/2021 12:30 PM	ADO Den Haag Zwolle	24.6% 55.5%	19.9%	+280 -105 +305 -115	1 0	-1.38314-1.44949	-1.40303
05/09/2021 12:30 PM	Ajax Feyenoord	54.2% 25.0%	20.9%	-213 +560 -190 +430	3 0	-0.41077-0.47372	-0.61297
05/09/2021 10:15 AM	Groningen Emmen	60.6% 20.8%	18.7%	+230 +132 +230 +120	4 0	-1.22254-1.24434	-0.50124
05/08/2021 07:00 PM	RKC Waalwijk VVV-Venlo	26.8% 51.1%	22.1%	+190 +142 +190 +140	3 3	-1.01321-1.02016	-0.99413
05/08/2021 06:00 PM	Fortuna Sittard AZ Alkmaar	15.9% 72.6%	11.4%	+850 -323 +850 -350	0 1	-0.30735-0.30251	-0.31994
05/08/2021 04:45 PM	Utrecht Heerenveen	37.0% 36.4%	26.7%	-130 +340 -130 +315	0 0	-1.06708-1.04570	-1.00328
05/08/2021 02:30 PM	Heracles Almelo Twente	33.8% 39.6%	26.6%	+175 +171 +165 +165	1 1	-1.02985-1.02223	-1.00558
05/07/2021 06:00 PM	Vitesse Sparta Rotterdam	48.3% 28.7%	23.0%	+110 +253 +105 +250	0 3	-1.28367-1.30280	-1.24751
05/02/2021 02:45 PM	Heerenveen PSV Eindhoven	22.8% 59.5%	17.6%	+1000 -387 +1000 -400	2 2	-1.35437-1.36014	-0.99766
05/02/2021 12:30 PM	Sparta Rotterdam Groningen	27.2% 49.3%	23.5%	+188 +155 +210 +130	2 1	-1.09500-1.18159	-1.30379
05/02/2021 12:30 PM	Emmen Ajax	5.6% 91.3%	3.1%	+2100 -718 +1850 -800	0 4	-0.14956-0.16779	-0.09050
05/02/2021 10:15 AM	Feyenoord ADO Den Haag	73.5% 15.1%	11.4%	-312 +831 -285 +725	2 3	-2.26250-2.16091	-1.89246

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)	14.0	3.0	8.0	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)	14.0	5.0	7.0	49.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
5	Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)	13.0	8.0	5.0	44.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
6	Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)	12.0	8.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)	12.0	9.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)	10.0	10.0	6.0	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)	10.0	11.0	5.0	35.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)	8.0	9.0	9.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)	9.0	11.0	6.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)	9.0	12.0	5.0	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)	8.0	14.0	4.0	28.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)	7.0	13.0	6.0	27.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)	7.0	14.0	5.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)	6.0	12.0	8.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)	4.0	15.0	7.0	19.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
18	RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)	4.0	19.0	3.0	15.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.