Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Utrecht
Twente 		41.6%
32.6%		25.8%
+425
-154

1.43
1.24		2.67
o2¾-118
u3-135

Heracles Almelo
AZ Alkmaar 		11.2%
71.6%		17.2%
+700
-270

0.81
2.33		3.14
o3-122
u3¼-123

Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Utrecht
RKC Waalwijk		64.8%
15.3%		19.9%
-105
+306
-110
+285
2
2		-1.34661-1.37074-1.61636
Emmen
PSV Eindhoven		4.8%
85.8%		9.4%
+1400
-480
+1125
-475
1
4		-0.20635-0.24039-0.15316
Ajax
Fortuna Sittard		83.3%
5.7%		10.9%
-407
+1041
-415
+975
3
2		-0.25503-0.26724-0.18221
Sparta Rotterdam
Heerenveen		25.9%
50.4%		23.7%
+335
+100
+310
-110
0
0		-1.28049-1.31517-1.44134
Vitesse
AZ Alkmaar		19.8%
57.7%		22.5%
+388
-138
+420
-160
1
6		-0.57618-0.53582-0.55002
AZ Alkmaar
Vitesse		48.7%
26.2%		25.1%
+165
+196
+160
+190
1
2		-1.10969-1.11541-1.34002
Utrecht
Vitesse		27.5%
47.5%		25.0%
+245
+115
+210
+120
0
3		-0.77744-0.83829-0.74497
Heerenveen
AZ Alkmaar		13.2%
68.5%		18.3%
+463
-155
+450
-170
0
2		-0.52335-0.51371-0.37853
Vitesse
Utrecht		38.4%
34.9%		26.8%
+280
+103
+240
+110
1
3		-0.73662-0.79264-1.05389
AZ Alkmaar
Heerenveen		60.4%
18.2%		21.3%
+153
+200
+140
+210
2
3		-1.12710-1.18185-1.70249
Utrecht
Willem II		48.8%
27.0%		24.2%
+214
+121
+215
+110
0
3		-0.81935-0.79396-1.30915
Ajax
Vitesse		67.1%
14.0%		19.0%
-175
+385
-190
+450
2
2		-1.61828-1.58763-1.66326
PSV Eindhoven
Zwolle		69.2%
13.5%		17.3%
-238
+634
-220
+475
2
1		-0.37603-0.42528-0.36833
Sparta Rotterdam
Heracles Almelo		29.6%
45.1%		25.2%
+250
+145
+245
+140
3
1		-1.27533-1.28844-1.21729
Twente
Feyenoord		15.4%
65.0%		19.5%
+539
-214
+500
-220
2
1		-1.88466-1.84263-1.86808
RKC Waalwijk
AZ Alkmaar		4.8%
84.6%		10.6%
+1068
-417
+975
-420
3
1		-2.49157-2.42588-3.03136
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.59352 
Sportsbooks10-0-0 (0.500)1 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.15559
0.43793

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.