Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated 1 hr ago

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Games for Mar 14, 2026

Games for Mar 16, 2026

Games In Progress

Time	Teams	Orig. Win %	Orig. Draw %	Closing ML	Orig. Total Goals	Closing O/U	Period	Current Score
03/15/2026 01:30 PM	Heracles Almelo AZ Alkmaar	11.2% 71.6%	17.2%	+675 -278	3.14	o3¼-121 u3½-120	2nd H 75:00	0 2

Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
02/05/2022 07:00 PM	AZ Alkmaar PSV Eindhoven	37.7% 38.1%	24.2%	+280 +100 +355 -130	2 1	-1.37888-1.56552	-0.97445
02/05/2022 05:45 PM	Heerenveen Fortuna Sittard	43.3% 33.1%	23.6%	+210 +133 +180 +140	0 2	-0.87129-0.92576	-1.10518
01/23/2022 07:00 PM	Fortuna Sittard RKC Waalwijk	45.3% 30.9%	23.7%	+210 +140 +200 +140	1 2	-0.90912-0.92284	-1.17386
01/23/2022 03:45 PM	Utrecht Sparta Rotterdam	44.3% 32.7%	23.0%	+115 +260 +110 +255	3 0	-0.79367-0.79264	-0.81423
01/23/2022 01:30 PM	Ajax PSV Eindhoven	51.2% 27.4%	21.4%	-110 +298 -115 +295	2 1	-0.69027-0.67564	-0.66994
01/22/2022 08:00 PM	Twente Willem II	39.4% 36.4%	24.2%	+135 +225 +130 +240	1 0	-0.89270-0.88312	-0.93186
01/22/2022 07:00 PM	Zwolle Heerenveen	28.4% 49.8%	21.8%	+190 +146 +200 +140	1 0	-1.09491-1.14599	-1.25949
01/22/2022 05:45 PM	Groningen Vitesse	30.3% 44.0%	25.7%	+265 +105 +290 +100	3 1	-1.33651-1.41026	-1.19274
01/16/2022 03:45 PM	AZ Alkmaar Fortuna Sittard	64.3% 19.0%	16.7%	-195 +600 -210 +575	2 1	-0.45240-0.43615	-0.44184
01/16/2022 01:30 PM	PSV Eindhoven Groningen	47.4% 28.8%	23.9%	-220 +610 -270 +750	1 0	-0.41898-0.36525	-0.74701
01/16/2022 11:15 AM	Ajax Utrecht	65.3% 18.4%	16.3%	-265 +640 -220 +550	3 0	-0.36549-0.42528	-0.42615
01/15/2022 07:00 PM	Heerenveen Twente	37.8% 37.8%	24.4%	+310 -110 +300 -115	0 2	-0.68043-0.67598	-0.97188
01/15/2022 07:00 PM	Vitesse Feyenoord	30.1% 46.2%	23.7%	+640 -235 +650 -250	1 0	-2.04299-2.06530	-1.19988
01/14/2022 07:00 PM	Willem II Zwolle	36.0% 40.3%	23.8%	+215 +145 +190 +150	0 2	-0.92523-0.96748	-0.90897
12/23/2021 08:00 PM	RKC Waalwijk Sparta Rotterdam	24.4% 55.1%	20.5%	+425 -140 +420 -140	1 1	-1.36735-1.33298	-1.58601
12/22/2021 08:00 PM	Fortuna Sittard Ajax	9.4% 80.6%	10.0%	+3500 -2500	0 5	-0.08623	-0.21586

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	2	1-1-0 (0.500)	0	-1.11870
Sportsbooks	2	0-0-0 (0.500)	2
DRatings	2	2-0-0 (1.000)	0	-0.51638	0.60232

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)	14.0	3.0	8.0	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)	14.0	5.0	7.0	49.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
5	Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)	13.0	8.0	5.0	44.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
6	Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)	12.0	8.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)	12.0	9.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)	10.0	10.0	6.0	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)	10.0	11.0	5.0	35.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)	8.0	9.0	9.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)	9.0	11.0	6.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)	9.0	12.0	5.0	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)	8.0	14.0	4.0	28.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)	7.0	13.0	6.0	27.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)	7.0	14.0	5.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)	6.0	12.0	8.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)	4.0	15.0	7.0	19.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
18	RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)	4.0	19.0	3.0	15.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.