Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 9, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Ajax
Utrecht 		72.8%
11.0%		16.2%
+145
+169

2.48
0.86		3.34
o3+100
u3-120

PSV Eindhoven
AZ Alkmaar 		29.4%
45.6%		25.0%
+114
+200

1.21
1.56		2.77
o3¼-118
u3¼+100

Games for Nov 8, 2025
Games for Nov 10, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Feyenoord
Willem II		56.8%
23.5%		19.8%
-161
+420
-165
+425
4
0		-0.52930-0.52106-0.56614
Vitesse
Zwolle		51.4%
27.0%		21.6%
+138
+196
+115
+230
1
0		-0.90989-0.81410-0.66522
Sparta Rotterdam
Utrecht		27.9%
51.0%		21.2%
+500
-169
+475
-165
0
4		-0.50233-0.52231-0.67415
Twente
Fortuna Sittard		40.3%
35.8%		23.9%
+136
+205
+135
+190
1
2		-1.14942-1.11544-1.02809
PSV Eindhoven
Heracles Almelo		55.2%
24.5%		20.3%
-165
+500
-175
+450
2
0		-0.49543-0.50408-0.59370
AZ Alkmaar
RKC Waalwijk		73.3%
12.7%		14.0%
-150
+400
-190
+475
0
1		-1.64413-1.79927-2.06074
Utrecht
Feyenoord		26.9%
51.2%		21.9%
+220
+128
+230
+115
0
2		-0.85114-0.81410-0.66941
Sparta Rotterdam
Feyenoord		21.0%
63.0%		16.0%
+385
-141
+350
-135
0
2		-0.56831-0.60605-0.46237
Groningen
Utrecht		33.3%
39.0%		27.7%
+499
-165
+525
-180
0
1		-0.50053-0.49335-0.94204
Fortuna Sittard
Willem II		33.8%
40.9%		25.3%
+400
-159
+390
-170
1
2		-0.51827-0.51473-0.89355
Emmen
VVV-Venlo		25.6%
54.4%		20.0%
-182
+475
-160
+380
4
0		-0.46389-0.53524-1.36344
Ajax
Vitesse		61.1%
21.3%		17.6%
-256
+610
-175
+430
3
1		-0.36755-0.50297-0.49321
Sparta Rotterdam
Heerenveen		30.1%
46.6%		23.4%
+123
+220
+110
+210
2
1		-0.81789-0.79880-1.20217
Groningen
Zwolle		45.0%
29.5%		25.4%
+150
+176
+155
+155
0
1		-1.05306-0.99274-1.21915
RKC Waalwijk
Feyenoord		13.2%
76.7%		10.1%
+840
-316
+575
-220
0
3		-0.29459-0.42638-0.26539
PSV Eindhoven
Utrecht		48.0%
29.3%		22.7%
+126
+198
+100
+240
1
1		-0.98688-1.01091-0.97998
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks20-2-0 (0.000)0-1.08108 
Sportsbooks20-0-0 (0.500)2 
DRatings21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.08660
-0.00553

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.