Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated 7 hr ago

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Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
10/23/2021 06:00 PM	Heracles Almelo Zwolle	39.8% 35.8%	24.4%	+143 +205 +120 +225	0 1	-1.15407-1.22946	-1.02711
10/23/2021 04:45 PM	Heerenveen Utrecht	32.2% 44.2%	23.6%	+603 -250 +575 -225	1 2	-0.38069-0.41746	-0.81620
10/22/2021 06:00 PM	Fortuna Sittard Willem II	34.5% 41.8%	23.7%	+311 -110 +320 -120	1 1	-1.37460-1.37074	-1.44045
10/17/2021 02:45 PM	Willem II Twente	31.2% 45.6%	23.2%	+440 -144 +440 -150	1 1	-1.43004-1.37231	-1.46024
10/17/2021 12:30 PM	Groningen Sparta Rotterdam	43.1% 32.0%	24.9%	+205 +151 +205 +140	1 1	-1.22068-1.24039	-1.39227
10/17/2021 10:15 AM	Utrecht AZ Alkmaar	22.8% 57.8%	19.4%	+285 -105 +255 -105	1 5	-0.71037-0.72128	-0.54732
10/16/2021 07:00 PM	Zwolle PSV Eindhoven	17.4% 68.4%	14.2%	+2178 -714 +2100 -900	1 3	-0.16381-0.15483	-0.38010
10/16/2021 04:45 PM	Ajax Heerenveen	68.4% 16.3%	15.2%	-476 +1089 -450 +1000	2 0	-0.23479-0.25132	-0.37933
10/16/2021 02:30 PM	RKC Waalwijk Feyenoord	12.7% 73.6%	13.7%	+1733 -575 +2000 -750	2 2	-2.18649-2.16013	-1.98435
10/03/2021 06:00 PM	Sparta Rotterdam PSV Eindhoven	18.9% 65.9%	15.2%	+1400 -515 +1300 -550	1 2	-0.21165-0.21671	-0.41778
10/03/2021 02:45 PM	Feyenoord Vitesse	40.0% 35.2%	24.8%	-105 +280 -110 +270	1 2	-1.36626-1.35759	-1.04418
10/03/2021 12:30 PM	Utrecht Ajax	14.9% 71.3%	13.9%	+1100 -450 +1000 -455	1 0	-2.52460-2.45004	-1.90589
10/02/2021 06:00 PM	Willem II Heracles Almelo	31.1% 45.0%	23.9%	+340 -127 +330 -120	2 3	-0.62427-0.65682	-0.79800
10/02/2021 06:00 PM	Heerenveen Zwolle	43.2% 33.3%	23.5%	+189 +145 +185 +150	1 0	-1.10842-1.09982	-0.83866
10/01/2021 06:00 PM	Twente Groningen	29.2% 46.1%	24.7%	+180 +170 +165 +170	1 1	-1.25141-1.24344	-1.39893
09/26/2021 02:45 PM	RKC Waalwijk Heracles Almelo	22.2% 57.1%	20.8%	+420 -160 +385 -155	0 1	-0.53028-0.54867	-0.56094

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	2	1-1-0 (0.500)	0	-0.99440
Sportsbooks	2	0-0-0 (0.500)	2
DRatings	2	2-0-0 (1.000)	0	-0.60590	0.38850

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)	14.0	3.0	8.0	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)	14.0	5.0	7.0	49.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
5	Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)	13.0	8.0	5.0	44.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
6	Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)	12.0	8.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)	12.0	9.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)	10.0	10.0	6.0	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)	10.0	11.0	5.0	35.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)	8.0	9.0	9.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)	9.0	11.0	6.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)	9.0	12.0	5.0	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)	8.0	14.0	4.0	28.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)	7.0	13.0	6.0	27.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)	7.0	14.0	5.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)	6.0	12.0	8.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)	4.0	15.0	7.0	19.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
18	RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)	4.0	19.0	3.0	15.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.